4 ms·

It doesn't matter what Russia is fighting with. The war is not about winning, it is about war profiteering. Both for Putin and the West. While the West gives ou

It doesn't matter what Russia is fighting with. The war is not about winning, it is about war profiteering. Both for Putin and the West. While the West gives out fat new contracts to build new weapons, Putin has stolen much of the grain produced in Ukraine and launders it through ship to ship transfers then sells to Egypt and other countries. This has made billions for Putin in the last year alone. Putin wins if the war ends and he wins if it continues. The only way he doesn't win if he no longer gets to play the game.

euroderf 2y ago
I don't disagree with most of this. My point is only that if the West is not sending Ukraine SOTA across the board, it's not a serious handicap AFAICT.
- mnky9800n 2y ago
  if the PATRIOT missile systems that were promised were actually delivered ukraine would already be in a better position to defend against the countrywide missile attacks that have been going on. the problem i have with this is that the goal is not to end the conflict as much as it is to maintain the status quo.
  - euroderf 2y ago
    Patriots are ridiculously expensive (a cool billion per battery), and best kept for certain missile threats. There are other cheaper weapons for other missile threats. But yeah, Western assistance is more of a slow drip than a proper flow.
    - mnky9800n 2y ago
      maybe that was a bad example, sorry. but i feel like we are on the same page so no hard feelings. actually i was thinking about patriots because of this bellingcat investigation where they were able to identify them from their interference with sentinel-1 satellites: https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2022/02/11/radar-interference-tracker-a-new-open-source-tool-to-locate-active-military-radar-systems/ https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2022/02/11/radar-interf...
badpun 2y ago
Short term, this war is costing Putin dearly - both inflation and rates in Russia are very high, there's a state of technological collapse (trains derailing etc.) due to sanctions and lack of access to advanced Western technology. Ultimately, he may only benefit if he's allowed to keep the territory he conquered and gets to absorb it into Russia. It may (or may not) be worth the cost he's paying for it right now.
- mnky9800n 2y ago
  he is currently making billions of dollars selling stolen ukrainian grain on the open market. why should he stop?
hkpack 2y ago
> war profiteering As with anything, there will be the ones who profits from it. Always has been, always will be. But the overall description is a ridiculous oversimplification of what is happening.
- mnky9800n 2y ago
  feel free to add details you think are missing.
  - hkpack 2y ago
    On the highest level it is the war for the world order between democracies and autocracies. On the level below it is a war for the spheres of influence between China and US. Next, it is Russian war for the control of the Europe and middle east. Below it is the wars by Iranian/Russian/Chinese proxies to help with the goals mentioned above. In all ongoing conflicts the parties are aligned with the China on top of the chain in one side of the conflict and the US on the other. Profits from stealing goods, people, or territories are just a means to ease the path to the goal or to improve the strategic position, but not the source of the conflict itself.
    - red-iron-pine 2y ago
      or, in a line, "Hegemonic War Theory"
    - xk_id 2y ago
      This is literally a chicken-egg problem. I’m not sure why you’re taking such a fundamentalist stance
    - mnky9800n 2y ago
      that all sounds like a nice theory but i feel like it absolves the actors of their actions and doesn’t actually add any details to what i was saying like i asked. it offers very little explanatory or predictive power so im not really sure what the point of the theory is except to assume a structure that could also be more simply explained by gordon gekko, “greed is good.”

euroderf 2y ago

I don't disagree with most of this. My point is only that if the West is not sending Ukraine SOTA across the board, it's not a serious handicap AFAICT.

mnky9800n 2y ago
if the PATRIOT missile systems that were promised were actually delivered ukraine would already be in a better position to defend against the countrywide missile attacks that have been going on. the problem i have with this is that the goal is not to end the conflict as much as it is to maintain the status quo.
- euroderf 2y ago
  Patriots are ridiculously expensive (a cool billion per battery), and best kept for certain missile threats. There are other cheaper weapons for other missile threats. But yeah, Western assistance is more of a slow drip than a proper flow.
  - mnky9800n 2y ago
    maybe that was a bad example, sorry. but i feel like we are on the same page so no hard feelings. actually i was thinking about patriots because of this bellingcat investigation where they were able to identify them from their interference with sentinel-1 satellites: https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2022/02/11/radar-interference-tracker-a-new-open-source-tool-to-locate-active-military-radar-systems/ https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2022/02/11/radar-interf...

badpun 2y ago

Short term, this war is costing Putin dearly - both inflation and rates in Russia are very high, there's a state of technological collapse (trains derailing etc.) due to sanctions and lack of access to advanced Western technology. Ultimately, he may only benefit if he's allowed to keep the territory he conquered and gets to absorb it into Russia. It may (or may not) be worth the cost he's paying for it right now.

mnky9800n 2y ago
he is currently making billions of dollars selling stolen ukrainian grain on the open market. why should he stop?

hkpack 2y ago

> war profiteering As with anything, there will be the ones who profits from it. Always has been, always will be. But the overall description is a ridiculous oversimplification of what is happening.

mnky9800n 2y ago
feel free to add details you think are missing.
- hkpack 2y ago
  On the highest level it is the war for the world order between democracies and autocracies. On the level below it is a war for the spheres of influence between China and US. Next, it is Russian war for the control of the Europe and middle east. Below it is the wars by Iranian/Russian/Chinese proxies to help with the goals mentioned above. In all ongoing conflicts the parties are aligned with the China on top of the chain in one side of the conflict and the US on the other. Profits from stealing goods, people, or territories are just a means to ease the path to the goal or to improve the strategic position, but not the source of the conflict itself.
  - red-iron-pine 2y ago
    or, in a line, "Hegemonic War Theory"
  - xk_id 2y ago
    This is literally a chicken-egg problem. I’m not sure why you’re taking such a fundamentalist stance
  - mnky9800n 2y ago
    that all sounds like a nice theory but i feel like it absolves the actors of their actions and doesn’t actually add any details to what i was saying like i asked. it offers very little explanatory or predictive power so im not really sure what the point of the theory is except to assume a structure that could also be more simply explained by gordon gekko, “greed is good.”