That reassurance seems to rest on two extremely shaky assumptions: 1. That the first "10%" move move by the US is the only move anybody ever makes, one trade-b

That reassurance seems to rest on two extremely shaky assumptions: 1. That the first "10%" move move by the US is the only move anybody ever makes, one trade-battle that ends the entire potential trade-war in one fell swoop, as if all other countries are just too dumb/meek to retaliate. 2. That US tariffs will be implemented as totally flat rate uniformly across everything, rather than being concentrated to cause domestic winners and losers. (10% tax on 100% of items is very different than 100% tax on 10% of items.) Neither of those were true last time. Rather than overall prosperity, tariffs paid by US consumers just became a subsidy ("forced redistributive welfare", if you like) for US producers. [0] [0] https://www.cfr.org/blog/92-percent-trumps-china-tariff-proceeds-has-gone-bail-out-angry-farmers https://www.cfr.org/blog/92-percent-trumps-china-tariff-proc...