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False analogy. You can indeed predict tomorrow's lottery numbers, or at least their probabilities, with extreme accuracy; the odds are defined and exact. This i

False analogy. You can indeed predict tomorrow's lottery numbers, or at least their probabilities, with extreme accuracy; the odds are defined and exact. This is why long-term predictions of lottery numbers are extremely accurate, because the day-to-day probabilities are known and exact. Temperatures, however, are not random and probabilistic; they are the explicit result of many factors. These same factors are used to predict long-term climate change. If the climate models that use these factors work so well for the future, why do they not work well for the next week? It's the same model, the same factors. In the analogy of the lottery numbers, if you mess up the near-term probabilities, you can rest assured the error is magnified over a long term.

rprasad 14y ago
For the same reason that we can predict how a large body of mass will react to a collision but can't explain how the subatomic particles will react to that same event, or the overall trend of the stock market without being able to predict the behavior of any individual stock. Scale matters. Most climate prediction software looks at weather on a far vaster, long-term scale than hours, days, or even weeks. Variations over such short periods ultimately have little effect on long-term trends.
caf 14y ago
It's not a false analogy - predicting the precise temperature tomorrow is analagous with predicting the exact numbers tomorrow, not the probabilities of the numbers tomorrow. Climate predictions are predictions of long-run means and weather predictions are predictions of short-run outcomes. Consider that the ball being drawn out of the lottery machine is not truly random and probabilistic, either - it is a direct result of the laws of physics, the starting condition of the ball-drawing machine and the inputs to it. Just like the ball-drawing machine, the short-run weather in the next minute, hour, day or week is a highly noisy process that can be accurately modelled as a random, probabilistic process. This is how weather forecasts work - they'll give the probability of rain in the next 24 hours.

rprasad 14y ago

For the same reason that we can predict how a large body of mass will react to a collision but can't explain how the subatomic particles will react to that same event, or the overall trend of the stock market without being able to predict the behavior of any individual stock. Scale matters. Most climate prediction software looks at weather on a far vaster, long-term scale than hours, days, or even weeks. Variations over such short periods ultimately have little effect on long-term trends.

caf 14y ago

It's not a false analogy - predicting the precise temperature tomorrow is analagous with predicting the exact numbers tomorrow, not the probabilities of the numbers tomorrow. Climate predictions are predictions of long-run means and weather predictions are predictions of short-run outcomes. Consider that the ball being drawn out of the lottery machine is not truly random and probabilistic, either - it is a direct result of the laws of physics, the starting condition of the ball-drawing machine and the inputs to it. Just like the ball-drawing machine, the short-run weather in the next minute, hour, day or week is a highly noisy process that can be accurately modelled as a random, probabilistic process. This is how weather forecasts work - they'll give the probability of rain in the next 24 hours.