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99.7% for Obama in March, and 82.6% now? According to you, the odds of Obama losing are now higher by a factor of 58. That is huge. What has happened in the la

• sendos 14y ago
  > According to you, the odds of Obama losing are now higher by a factor of 58 Just to be clear, this is not strictly speaking "according to me", that is I don't use my personal opinion to come up with these numbers. I just take daily state poll results from electoral-vote.com and pass them through some equations. No human intervention. Having said that, I think what was happening in the March timeframe and before was that the field of Republican potential nominees was very uninspiring to Republicans, which can be seen by how often we saw a new front-runner, only to lose their front-runner status and usually bow out shortly thereafter. So, perhaps, against this amorphous group of uninspiring candidates, Obama attracted a lot of voters. Then, as the Republicans started settling on one candidate, and started to slowly accept him as the nominee, he now has a much better chance against Obama.