It's an interesting confluence of choices and outcomes to be sure. A few points to add: - Poverty (economic shrinkage) also causes excess deaths - Herd immuni

It's an interesting confluence of choices and outcomes to be sure. A few points to add: - Poverty (economic shrinkage) also causes excess deaths - Herd immunity for a moderately lethal virus is very much a thing The issue at the beginning of the pandemic was... nobody knew how lethal COVID-19 was at population scale (or how lethal it might become). If it was less-lethal and wouldn't become more lethal, the winning move was to minimize restrictions, keep the economy humming, and be okay with many people getting infected quickly. If it was more-lethal or became more lethal, the above would leave a country fucked, with absolutely no way of reversing course short of a China style "everything stops" lockdown. Which would cause major economic pain and excess mortality as a consequence of that. So gambling with an entire country's population... which choice do you make? Impossible call to be "right" about.