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I really wonder if anyone is going to be able to catch up to SpaceX anytime soon. Kuiper seems dead in the water, the legacy operators seem unwilling to expand

I really wonder if anyone is going to be able to catch up to SpaceX anytime soon. Kuiper seems dead in the water, the legacy operators seem unwilling to expand into LEO constellations.

FL33TW00D 2y ago
Rocket Lab and Peter Beck are your best hope!
- Culonavirus 2y ago
  I think the potential comptetitors in this business (low latency satellite internet megaconstellation) missed their opportunity. Starship is very close to being able to put next gen Starlink satellites into orbit ("very close" as in most likely within a year or so). Once that happens, it's over, there will not be competition for at least a decade. Before Bezos and others (and/or EU/China) build their own Starship copies (and if you've seen recent EU/China concepts, you can't call it anything else...), it's going to be the 2030s.
  - grapesodaaaaa 2y ago
    Not to mention that the existing Starlink fleet is about to be old technology. The larger satellites launched by Starship is projected to dwarf the terminal speed available now (gigabit+ downlinks to consumer dishes).
  - FL33TW00D 2y ago
    I don't think so. Listen to the most recent RKLB earnings call. Constellation on the way, Neutron launching in 2025. There will be competition.
threeseed 2y ago
Honestly not sure why they would want to. The world is continually moving towards being centred around cities where it makes sense to simply rollout fibre. Especially with gigabit speeds being the new standard. And even in Australia they are starting to move remote areas onto fibre.
- fragmede 2y ago
  I think Starlink has caused rural fiber deployments to accelerate because a friend's property in rural Oregon just got fiber, but the challenge remains: after you get fiber to the corner of your 22 acre lot, how do you cover the rest of the 21 acres? With fiber and using wifi as your backhaul you have to get a chain a bunch of nodes to get Internet to each building/area you want wifi. Starlink (business) lets you just stick a starlink mini dish in each place without having to worry about all that.
  - threeseed 2y ago
    There are long-range e.g. 20km WiFi transmitters/repeaters. It's a solved problem.
    - fragmede 2y ago
      that solution isn't without issues. specifically, you have to climb trees and run power or do solar, and then if there's a heavy storm you can have issues. those aren't insurmountable problems but being able to get Internet anywhere there's liner of sight to the sky is easier (or harder!) depending on the terrain.
      - verzali 2y ago
        Aren't these the same problems for Starlink?
        fragmede 2y ago
        Climbing one tree to get Starlink to see the sky is less work then having to climb multiple trees to align a dish and a repeater so it's entirely terrain dependent so all we can say in the general case is we have to take a look at your land/situation before saying which would be preferable to you.
  - 0xffff2 2y ago
    Centurylink ran fiber down the nearest highway to my rural Oregon property a couple of months before Starlink became available. AFAIK the timing was more coincidence than anything, but you're entirely right about the logistics of fiber being non-trivial. As usual, last mile is the hardest part. Even with fiber at the highway, the only service Centurylink would offer us was 10Mbps DSL. I bet they would have tun fiver to my house for $$$$$, but Starlink is plenty fast and it would almost certainly take a decade or more to recoup the one-time costs of getting fiber installed all the way to my house.
umeshunni 2y ago
Why do you think Kuiper is dead in the water?
- starik36 2y ago
  Not sure if they are dead in the water or not. However, they have until July 30, 2026 to deploy half of their fleet or they lose the FCC granted frequencies. The fleet is 3232 satellites. So far they launched 2 test satellites. They contracted most of the launches to either new rockets or ones in development, like New Glenn, Ariane 6, ULA Vulcan. They actually had to contract three Falcon 9 launches to help out with that. In reality, I think SpaceX will end up launching a lot more than that. Unless FCC is willing to be lenient, 50% of the satellites will be hard to accomplish by the deadline.
  - inemesitaffia 2y ago
    They will ask for a variance
  - verzali 2y ago
    The FCC will be lenient, they have no reason not to be unless Musk is leaning on them.
    - nathancahill 2y ago
      Look who just joined the incoming administration...
    - starik36 2y ago
      I doubt that very much. Gwynne Shotwell stated multiple times that they will work with whoever. In addition, SpaceX is already contracted for 3 launches of Kuiper.
  - JayPalm 2y ago
    The quick maths indicates that to achieve this, they’d have to launch 22.5 satellites per week every week for the next 18 months until that deadline. SpaceX seems to be launching at nearly twice that rate, having launched [1565 satellites](https://spaceflightnow.com/2024/10/30/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-23-starlink-satellites-on-falcon-9-rocket-from-cape-canaveral-3/#:~:text='%20This%20was%20the%2083rd%20booster,launched%20in%202024%20to%201%2C565 https://spaceflightnow.com/2024/10/30/live-coverage-spacex-t....) in the first 10 months of this year.

I really wonder if anyone is going to be able to catch up to SpaceX anytime soon. Kuiper seems dead in the water, the legacy operators seem unwilling to expand into LEO constellations.

FL33TW00D 2y ago

Rocket Lab and Peter Beck are your best hope!

Culonavirus 2y ago
I think the potential comptetitors in this business (low latency satellite internet megaconstellation) missed their opportunity. Starship is very close to being able to put next gen Starlink satellites into orbit ("very close" as in most likely within a year or so). Once that happens, it's over, there will not be competition for at least a decade. Before Bezos and others (and/or EU/China) build their own Starship copies (and if you've seen recent EU/China concepts, you can't call it anything else...), it's going to be the 2030s.
- grapesodaaaaa 2y ago
  Not to mention that the existing Starlink fleet is about to be old technology. The larger satellites launched by Starship is projected to dwarf the terminal speed available now (gigabit+ downlinks to consumer dishes).
- FL33TW00D 2y ago
  I don't think so. Listen to the most recent RKLB earnings call. Constellation on the way, Neutron launching in 2025. There will be competition.

threeseed 2y ago

Honestly not sure why they would want to. The world is continually moving towards being centred around cities where it makes sense to simply rollout fibre. Especially with gigabit speeds being the new standard. And even in Australia they are starting to move remote areas onto fibre.

fragmede 2y ago
I think Starlink has caused rural fiber deployments to accelerate because a friend's property in rural Oregon just got fiber, but the challenge remains: after you get fiber to the corner of your 22 acre lot, how do you cover the rest of the 21 acres? With fiber and using wifi as your backhaul you have to get a chain a bunch of nodes to get Internet to each building/area you want wifi. Starlink (business) lets you just stick a starlink mini dish in each place without having to worry about all that.
- threeseed 2y ago
  There are long-range e.g. 20km WiFi transmitters/repeaters. It's a solved problem.
  - fragmede 2y ago
    that solution isn't without issues. specifically, you have to climb trees and run power or do solar, and then if there's a heavy storm you can have issues. those aren't insurmountable problems but being able to get Internet anywhere there's liner of sight to the sky is easier (or harder!) depending on the terrain.
    - verzali 2y ago
      Aren't these the same problems for Starlink?
      - fragmede 2y ago
        Climbing one tree to get Starlink to see the sky is less work then having to climb multiple trees to align a dish and a repeater so it's entirely terrain dependent so all we can say in the general case is we have to take a look at your land/situation before saying which would be preferable to you.
- 0xffff2 2y ago
  Centurylink ran fiber down the nearest highway to my rural Oregon property a couple of months before Starlink became available. AFAIK the timing was more coincidence than anything, but you're entirely right about the logistics of fiber being non-trivial. As usual, last mile is the hardest part. Even with fiber at the highway, the only service Centurylink would offer us was 10Mbps DSL. I bet they would have tun fiver to my house for $$$$$, but Starlink is plenty fast and it would almost certainly take a decade or more to recoup the one-time costs of getting fiber installed all the way to my house.

umeshunni 2y ago

Why do you think Kuiper is dead in the water?

starik36 2y ago
Not sure if they are dead in the water or not. However, they have until July 30, 2026 to deploy half of their fleet or they lose the FCC granted frequencies. The fleet is 3232 satellites. So far they launched 2 test satellites. They contracted most of the launches to either new rockets or ones in development, like New Glenn, Ariane 6, ULA Vulcan. They actually had to contract three Falcon 9 launches to help out with that. In reality, I think SpaceX will end up launching a lot more than that. Unless FCC is willing to be lenient, 50% of the satellites will be hard to accomplish by the deadline.
- inemesitaffia 2y ago
  They will ask for a variance
- verzali 2y ago
  The FCC will be lenient, they have no reason not to be unless Musk is leaning on them.
  - nathancahill 2y ago
    Look who just joined the incoming administration...
  - starik36 2y ago
    I doubt that very much. Gwynne Shotwell stated multiple times that they will work with whoever. In addition, SpaceX is already contracted for 3 launches of Kuiper.
- JayPalm 2y ago
  The quick maths indicates that to achieve this, they’d have to launch 22.5 satellites per week every week for the next 18 months until that deadline. SpaceX seems to be launching at nearly twice that rate, having launched [1565 satellites](https://spaceflightnow.com/2024/10/30/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-23-starlink-satellites-on-falcon-9-rocket-from-cape-canaveral-3/#:~:text='%20This%20was%20the%2083rd%20booster,launched%20in%202024%20to%201%2C565 https://spaceflightnow.com/2024/10/30/live-coverage-spacex-t....) in the first 10 months of this year.