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This is a poor comparison that misses the reason why the plow took off. The plow was able to produce grains similar to human laborers at a speed that made scyth

This is a poor comparison that misses the reason why the plow took off. The plow was able to produce grains similar to human laborers at a speed that made scythes and bush knives obscelete. There was no more need for human labor because mechanized harvesting provided a "good enough" alternative. AI does not mechanize human thought, create a suitable replacement product, or displace demand for human content. It is not the plow, because the plow was actually competitive and forced people to change their lives. Consequently, the smartest people today are probably the ones that least regard AI and LLMs.

mandmandam 2y ago
> misses the reason why the plow took off The first two paragraphs explain why, and you didn't contradict them in any way - just repeated their points in slightly worse wording. > AI does not mechanize human thought It does though. Not all of it (and that's not what was claimed) but that's precisely what it does. If I need to find an error in a large spreadsheet, I can either think about it for an hour, or upload it an LLM and have an answer in seconds. My thought has been mechanized - and at an unimaginable scale, across human civilization. > It is not the plow, because the plow was actually competitive and forced people to change their lives How many people are being fired right now, because their workmates who understand how to use ChatGPT are outperforming them? Do you think NVIDIA stock has gone gangbusters because they're "not actually competitive"? > the smartest people today are probably the ones that least regard AI and LLMs. That's not remotely true. There are no shortage of highly intelligent people across all fields who are actively making use of LLMs, and fascinated as to where they're going next, and a little scared at the crazy potentials. ChatGPT is performing at a roughly 120 IQ, acing exams, helping people at a college research assistant level - and there's no reason to believe it won't be far above that level next year. Or next month! Ignoring this is - funnily enough - exactly like hearing a 4000 BC Mesopotamian farmer refuse to use a plow, saying "it's not like it's fire or anything".

mandmandam 2y ago

> misses the reason why the plow took off The first two paragraphs explain why, and you didn't contradict them in any way - just repeated their points in slightly worse wording. > AI does not mechanize human thought It does though. Not all of it (and that's not what was claimed) but that's precisely what it does. If I need to find an error in a large spreadsheet, I can either think about it for an hour, or upload it an LLM and have an answer in seconds. My thought has been mechanized - and at an unimaginable scale, across human civilization. > It is not the plow, because the plow was actually competitive and forced people to change their lives How many people are being fired right now, because their workmates who understand how to use ChatGPT are outperforming them? Do you think NVIDIA stock has gone gangbusters because they're "not actually competitive"? > the smartest people today are probably the ones that least regard AI and LLMs. That's not remotely true. There are no shortage of highly intelligent people across all fields who are actively making use of LLMs, and fascinated as to where they're going next, and a little scared at the crazy potentials. ChatGPT is performing at a roughly 120 IQ, acing exams, helping people at a college research assistant level - and there's no reason to believe it won't be far above that level next year. Or next month! Ignoring this is - funnily enough - exactly like hearing a 4000 BC Mesopotamian farmer refuse to use a plow, saying "it's not like it's fire or anything".