4 ms·

What £/kWh rate could we achieve at 2am, if we had the perfect localised modern pricing model?

by switch007 2y ago

adrianN 2y ago
Depends on the weather.
- switch007 2y ago
  What's the range? And to quote the person to whom I replied: "If you put actual numbers on it, you would be able to have a sane discussion " There is often an implication or assertion that the tech to enable surge pricing will actually enable way cheaper energy. So I want to know the estimated unit prices.
  - adrianN 2y ago
    I don’t think a satisfying answer fits in a HN comment box. On windy nights with low demand power is essentially free, on windstill nights with severe frost power will be extremely expensive. Sufficient nuance to enable a fact based discussion would probably fill several pages, as there are many factors that influence the price.
tcfhgj 2y ago
0-infinity
- amoshebb 2y ago
  Why the lower bound on 0? Places with overproduction sometimes pay to curtail
  - tcfhgj 2y ago
    Renewables can be turned off quite quickly.
pjc50 2y ago
The whole point of the discussion is that there would be no single answer to that question: the number will vary by location, and by the current availability of power, because it becomes a price signal. It would likely converge on wind farm strike prices plus margin, so about 10p/kWh .. if you lived in Scotland or near the coast. Being a localized market I would expect to see higher prices in London. But there's also a risk of spikes. You'd probably want a regulatory guarantee of maximum prices, I think during the Texas crisis it got over $100/unit at one point.
michaelt 2y ago
If you use "Octopus Agile" (which "directly follows half-hourly wholesale electricity prices") then on Friday 22nd in Southern Scotland [1] you could have enjoyed electricity prices ranging from 14.9p/kWh at 02:30 to 46.4p at 16:30 and an average rate of 24.8p On a handful of days - such as yesterday [2] which was very windy - prices fell as low as -2.6p at 03:30 For comparison, a 'regular' energy supplier will charge 23.47p/kWh for anytime use. [1] https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/22 https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/22 [2] https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/24 https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/24
- switch007 2y ago
  So ~1-2x at the time many want to use energy, and 0.5x at the time when most people are asleep So you generally pay more unless you become nocturnal or unemployed/homemaker?

What £/kWh rate could we achieve at 2am, if we had the perfect localised modern pricing model?

adrianN 2y ago

Depends on the weather.

switch007 2y ago
What's the range? And to quote the person to whom I replied: "If you put actual numbers on it, you would be able to have a sane discussion " There is often an implication or assertion that the tech to enable surge pricing will actually enable way cheaper energy. So I want to know the estimated unit prices.
- adrianN 2y ago
  I don’t think a satisfying answer fits in a HN comment box. On windy nights with low demand power is essentially free, on windstill nights with severe frost power will be extremely expensive. Sufficient nuance to enable a fact based discussion would probably fill several pages, as there are many factors that influence the price.

tcfhgj 2y ago

0-infinity

amoshebb 2y ago
Why the lower bound on 0? Places with overproduction sometimes pay to curtail
- tcfhgj 2y ago
  Renewables can be turned off quite quickly.

pjc50 2y ago

The whole point of the discussion is that there would be no single answer to that question: the number will vary by location, and by the current availability of power, because it becomes a price signal. It would likely converge on wind farm strike prices plus margin, so about 10p/kWh .. if you lived in Scotland or near the coast. Being a localized market I would expect to see higher prices in London. But there's also a risk of spikes. You'd probably want a regulatory guarantee of maximum prices, I think during the Texas crisis it got over $100/unit at one point.

michaelt 2y ago

If you use "Octopus Agile" (which "directly follows half-hourly wholesale electricity prices") then on Friday 22nd in Southern Scotland [1] you could have enjoyed electricity prices ranging from 14.9p/kWh at 02:30 to 46.4p at 16:30 and an average rate of 24.8p On a handful of days - such as yesterday [2] which was very windy - prices fell as low as -2.6p at 03:30 For comparison, a 'regular' energy supplier will charge 23.47p/kWh for anytime use. [1] https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/22 https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/22 [2] https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/24 https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/24

switch007 2y ago
So ~1-2x at the time many want to use energy, and 0.5x at the time when most people are asleep So you generally pay more unless you become nocturnal or unemployed/homemaker?