3 ms·
> Thats enough to cover the entire ridership of SF's public bus system I suspect this assertion doesn't have the necessary math behind it. There are a lot of t
by Terr_ 2y ago
> Thats enough to cover the entire ridership of SF's public bus system
I suspect this assertion doesn't have the necessary math behind it. There are a lot of tricky things that would need to be modeled. (Also some of the others, but I'm just going to focus on this one for now.)
Just for starters, let's play with napkin-math for peak demand.
The buses serve an average of >500k boardings each weekday. [0]. Make a simplifying assumption that each person boards twice for a round trip, and that half of those 250k round-trips occur during rush hour periods, and that's 125k people all trying to get to work in the morning rush.
So each taxi needs to satisfy eight people's to-work commutes during that time. That seems unlikely unless all of the commutes are actually very easy, everybody somehow ends up in convenient parties of four, or a lot of people are commuting against the prevailing flow so that the vehicle is always cycling productively, etc.
I might be wrong, but someone who doesn't even start to address those questions can't say they're right.
[0] https://www.sfmta.com/reports/muni-ridership-average-weekday-ridership https://www.sfmta.com/reports/muni-ridership-average-weekday...
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> each taxi needs to satisfy eight people's to-work commutes during that time Then the solution might be 7-seater Waymos that operate in shared mode plus standard Waymos that operate as private rides. Nothing beats the density of grade-separated urban rail. But it's fair to question if buses can be made better by making them autonomous, smaller and point to point.