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> and sanctions end Source on that? No documented cases in history of U.S. sanctions ever ending. (Which is why from a game theoretic point of view the only w

> and sanctions end Source on that? No documented cases in history of U.S. sanctions ever ending. (Which is why from a game theoretic point of view the only winning move is import substitution, not kowtowing to whatever terrorist demands.)

loeg 2y ago
Sanctions against Apartheid South Africa ended: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_apartheid#Aftermath https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during... Sanctions on Iran were relaxed in exchange for partial cooperation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_against_Iran#Sanctions_relief https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_agains...
audunw 2y ago
I guess we don’t say that USA had “sanctions” against the Soviet Union, but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? So we have a direct example from history from the same region. I would say that Vietnam also shows that economic relations can improve a lot even without a fundamental change in the regime. China is also an example where economic relations improved. I don’t see any reason to think that sanctions can’t be lifted. But it may require a complete collapse of Putins regime/party for it to happen on a short timescale. Is there any reason to think USA wouldn’t be willing to open up to a new leadership if they have a radically different attitude and pull out of Ukraine? If Russia turns into something like North Korea or Iran, then yeah, the outlook is not good. But why should it be? From a game theoretical point of view: I don’t think any leader of any country wants to end up like North Korea, so the precedent being set is good.
- attendant3446 2y ago
  I think it depends. The leaders of North Kore/Iran don't see their countries as we do from the outside. Neither does Russia. It probably won't end up like North Korea, but something like Iran - very likely
- otabdeveloper4 2y ago
  > but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? No. None of the sanctions levied against the USSR were lifted and still technically apply to Russia. (Enforcing them is another matter.) > I don’t think any leader of any country wants to end up like North Korea North Korea is doing better than South Korea on every metric except "consumer goods availability" and "international relations". Not sure you're making your case here. > ...or Iran Iran is more modern, developed and free than any other middle eastern country. (That includes Israel.) Your ideas are wildly out of sync with actual reality.
  - loeg 2y ago
    > North Korea is doing better than South Korea on every metric except "consumer goods availability" and "international relations". This is very, very false and a pretty strong signal there's no useful discussion to have here.
  - thodin 2y ago
    > None of the sanctions levied against the USSR were lifted It's a lie. Sanctions actually began to be lifted in 1989 (Jews were finally allowed to emigrate) when we received 80486 processors. In 1990, we got our first SS7 switches and equipment for the first two mobile networks. It was a big thing. > North Korea is doing better Too bad they are not allowed to tell this here, because internet access is available only to several hundreds people :) > Iran is more modern, developed and free than any other middle eastern country. (That includes Israel.) Nice joke :)

loeg 2y ago

Sanctions against Apartheid South Africa ended: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_apartheid#Aftermath https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during... Sanctions on Iran were relaxed in exchange for partial cooperation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_against_Iran#Sanctions_relief https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_agains...

audunw 2y ago

I guess we don’t say that USA had “sanctions” against the Soviet Union, but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? So we have a direct example from history from the same region. I would say that Vietnam also shows that economic relations can improve a lot even without a fundamental change in the regime. China is also an example where economic relations improved. I don’t see any reason to think that sanctions can’t be lifted. But it may require a complete collapse of Putins regime/party for it to happen on a short timescale. Is there any reason to think USA wouldn’t be willing to open up to a new leadership if they have a radically different attitude and pull out of Ukraine? If Russia turns into something like North Korea or Iran, then yeah, the outlook is not good. But why should it be? From a game theoretical point of view: I don’t think any leader of any country wants to end up like North Korea, so the precedent being set is good.

attendant3446 2y ago
I think it depends. The leaders of North Kore/Iran don't see their countries as we do from the outside. Neither does Russia. It probably won't end up like North Korea, but something like Iran - very likely
otabdeveloper4 2y ago
> but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? No. None of the sanctions levied against the USSR were lifted and still technically apply to Russia. (Enforcing them is another matter.) > I don’t think any leader of any country wants to end up like North Korea North Korea is doing better than South Korea on every metric except "consumer goods availability" and "international relations". Not sure you're making your case here. > ...or Iran Iran is more modern, developed and free than any other middle eastern country. (That includes Israel.) Your ideas are wildly out of sync with actual reality.
- loeg 2y ago
  > North Korea is doing better than South Korea on every metric except "consumer goods availability" and "international relations". This is very, very false and a pretty strong signal there's no useful discussion to have here.
- thodin 2y ago
  > None of the sanctions levied against the USSR were lifted It's a lie. Sanctions actually began to be lifted in 1989 (Jews were finally allowed to emigrate) when we received 80486 processors. In 1990, we got our first SS7 switches and equipment for the first two mobile networks. It was a big thing. > North Korea is doing better Too bad they are not allowed to tell this here, because internet access is available only to several hundreds people :) > Iran is more modern, developed and free than any other middle eastern country. (That includes Israel.) Nice joke :)