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Great to see sanctions working. Withdraw from Ukraine and sanctions end.

by loeg 2y ago

sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
Surrendering because 2.5% of the fleet may be not working sounds reasonable to me!
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Withdraw from Ukraine and sanctions end This will be Europe’s first post-War test of security integrity. My suspicion is it will fail—that Europe as a single force, versus collection of countries crowded on a continent, is an American invention, and without American strength will dissolve divided. But my hope is it will succeed.
- rtsil 2y ago
  There's an argument that the US did everything to prevent Europe from coalescing into a single force and only want Europe to be a single market, not much more, for instance by convincing Eastern European countries to trust their protective umbrella rather than the French-German domination.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > the US did everything to prevent Europe from coalescing into a single force and only want Europe to be a single market, not much more I mean yes, we did. Western Europe was unifying under Berlin in the 1940s. > by convincing Eastern European countries to trust their protective umbrella rather than the French-German domination Militarily speaking, modern Germany is irrelevant. (Partly due to how it’s been managed post-War.) Especially to Eastern Europe, whose security concerns require a nuclear umbrella.
    - fatbird 2y ago
      In the 90s the US scuttled an EU plan to create an EU military force that would be relatively small--around 50,000 personnel--but would be the umbrella military organization under which national forces would come together if needed. Trump and conservatives complain mightily about EU underspending on defence, but that's been by American design. While the EU was/is dependent on the American security umbrella, the US had a lot of leverage over Europe. The carrot was "you don't need to spend so much on defence, we've got you covered" and the stick was "shame if we didn't have you covered anymore, since you've been underspending for so many years.
otabdeveloper4 2y ago
> and sanctions end Source on that? No documented cases in history of U.S. sanctions ever ending. (Which is why from a game theoretic point of view the only winning move is import substitution, not kowtowing to whatever terrorist demands.)
- loeg 2y ago
  Sanctions against Apartheid South Africa ended: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_apartheid#Aftermath https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during... Sanctions on Iran were relaxed in exchange for partial cooperation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_against_Iran#Sanctions_relief https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_agains...
- audunw 2y ago
  I guess we don’t say that USA had “sanctions” against the Soviet Union, but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? So we have a direct example from history from the same region. I would say that Vietnam also shows that economic relations can improve a lot even without a fundamental change in the regime. China is also an example where economic relations improved. I don’t see any reason to think that sanctions can’t be lifted. But it may require a complete collapse of Putins regime/party for it to happen on a short timescale. Is there any reason to think USA wouldn’t be willing to open up to a new leadership if they have a radically different attitude and pull out of Ukraine? If Russia turns into something like North Korea or Iran, then yeah, the outlook is not good. But why should it be? From a game theoretical point of view: I don’t think any leader of any country wants to end up like North Korea, so the precedent being set is good.
  - attendant3446 2y ago
    I think it depends. The leaders of North Kore/Iran don't see their countries as we do from the outside. Neither does Russia. It probably won't end up like North Korea, but something like Iran - very likely
  - otabdeveloper4 2y ago
tim333 2y ago
They are pretty half arsed in terms of getting Russia to withdraw. Now if they blockaded Russia's oil exports that could bankrupt them but the whole policy from the start seems to be drip feed everything so Russia wins slowly.

Great to see sanctions working. Withdraw from Ukraine and sanctions end.

by loeg 2y ago

Great to see sanctions working. Withdraw from Ukraine and sanctions end.

sedan_baklazhan 2y ago

Surrendering because 2.5% of the fleet may be not working sounds reasonable to me!

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> Withdraw from Ukraine and sanctions end This will be Europe’s first post-War test of security integrity. My suspicion is it will fail—that Europe as a single force, versus collection of countries crowded on a continent, is an American invention, and without American strength will dissolve divided. But my hope is it will succeed.

rtsil 2y ago
There's an argument that the US did everything to prevent Europe from coalescing into a single force and only want Europe to be a single market, not much more, for instance by convincing Eastern European countries to trust their protective umbrella rather than the French-German domination.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > the US did everything to prevent Europe from coalescing into a single force and only want Europe to be a single market, not much more I mean yes, we did. Western Europe was unifying under Berlin in the 1940s. > by convincing Eastern European countries to trust their protective umbrella rather than the French-German domination Militarily speaking, modern Germany is irrelevant. (Partly due to how it’s been managed post-War.) Especially to Eastern Europe, whose security concerns require a nuclear umbrella.
  - fatbird 2y ago
    In the 90s the US scuttled an EU plan to create an EU military force that would be relatively small--around 50,000 personnel--but would be the umbrella military organization under which national forces would come together if needed. Trump and conservatives complain mightily about EU underspending on defence, but that's been by American design. While the EU was/is dependent on the American security umbrella, the US had a lot of leverage over Europe. The carrot was "you don't need to spend so much on defence, we've got you covered" and the stick was "shame if we didn't have you covered anymore, since you've been underspending for so many years.

otabdeveloper4 2y ago

> and sanctions end Source on that? No documented cases in history of U.S. sanctions ever ending. (Which is why from a game theoretic point of view the only winning move is import substitution, not kowtowing to whatever terrorist demands.)

loeg 2y ago
Sanctions against Apartheid South Africa ended: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_apartheid#Aftermath https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during... Sanctions on Iran were relaxed in exchange for partial cooperation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_against_Iran#Sanctions_relief https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_agains...
audunw 2y ago
I guess we don’t say that USA had “sanctions” against the Soviet Union, but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? So we have a direct example from history from the same region. I would say that Vietnam also shows that economic relations can improve a lot even without a fundamental change in the regime. China is also an example where economic relations improved. I don’t see any reason to think that sanctions can’t be lifted. But it may require a complete collapse of Putins regime/party for it to happen on a short timescale. Is there any reason to think USA wouldn’t be willing to open up to a new leadership if they have a radically different attitude and pull out of Ukraine? If Russia turns into something like North Korea or Iran, then yeah, the outlook is not good. But why should it be? From a game theoretical point of view: I don’t think any leader of any country wants to end up like North Korea, so the precedent being set is good.
- attendant3446 2y ago
  I think it depends. The leaders of North Kore/Iran don't see their countries as we do from the outside. Neither does Russia. It probably won't end up like North Korea, but something like Iran - very likely
- otabdeveloper4 2y ago

tim333 2y ago

They are pretty half arsed in terms of getting Russia to withdraw. Now if they blockaded Russia's oil exports that could bankrupt them but the whole policy from the start seems to be drip feed everything so Russia wins slowly.