Excuse my ignorance but putting aside all the fraught politics of the day, I would love to see some unbiased critique of the analysis either for or against. Obv

Excuse my ignorance but putting aside all the fraught politics of the day, I would love to see some unbiased critique of the analysis either for or against. Obviously a response will be: “This change could have been organic in response to the assassination attempt”. Can someone with a statistical background chime in why that is not possible or is possible?