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An estimate is really a probability distribution, that often resembles a Gaussian distribution and thus can be captured with two numbers: the average and the va
by akomtu 2y ago
An estimate is really a probability distribution, that often resembles a Gaussian distribution and thus can be captured with two numbers: the average and the variance. Combining multiple estimates together would involve some math around these two numbers. But the surprising thing is that managers in the software industry don't really understand probabilities, and to make it understandable those managers want to reduce the model to just one number, and when this model fails to capture the probabilistic nature of the underlying process, they attempt to overrule the math with authority.
- mikrl 2y ago>they attempt to overrule the math with authority It’s entirely possible to turn that to your advantage, but takes some luck/skill, not dissimilar to profiting off of stock market crashes. The asymmetry between mathematics and authority tends to favour the math.
- jbay808 2y agoThis is correct, although in my experience the distribution is often more like a lognormal than a Gaussian: https://thesearesystems.substack.com/p/task-estimation-conquering-hofstadters https://thesearesystems.substack.com/p/task-estimation-conqu...