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Tesla aced another independent out-of-sample crash test [1]. The danluu article also mentions an iSeeCars report at the bottom that says that Teslas have a hig

Tesla aced another independent out-of-sample crash test [1]. The danluu article also mentions an iSeeCars report at the bottom that says that Teslas have a high amount of fatalities per mile driven [2]. However, while they claim to be using official US estimates of fatalities data, they normalized it with estimated mileage using unknown proprietary iSeeCars data: > iSeeCars analyzed fatality data from the U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Only cars from model years 2018-2022 in crashes that resulted in occupant fatalities between 2017 and 2022 (the latest year data was available) were included in the analysis. To adjust for exposure, the number of cars involved in a fatal crash were normalized by the total number of vehicle miles driven, which was estimated from iSeeCars’ data of over 8 million vehicles on the road in 2022 from model years 2018-2022. Heavy-duty trucks and vans, models not in production as of the 2024 model year, and low-volume models were removed from further analysis. Some numbers are also surprising, such as the Model Y having almost twice the fatality rate (10.6 per billion miles) as the Tesla average (5.6) --- suggesting that there's a wide gulf between it and the Model 3 in terms of fatality rates, which seems difficult to explain. Ultimately, iSeeCars is a small VC-funded startup with very few people and so it is unclear if their methodology is actually good or not. For a better blog post about whether Teslas are safe, here's a post from Brandon Paddock [3] from a year ago, which seems more or less objective and unsurprising. Here is the conclusion that he drew upon analyzing the FARS data: > Tesla’s fatal accident rate is nearly identical to that of the Audi A4 series, and far lower than a standard Ford mid-size sedan. In this case, the Ford’s accident rate is more than 4 times higher than the Tesla Model 3. [1] https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-aces-safety-tests-china-video https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-aces-safety-tests-ch... [2] https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study [3] https://brandonpaddock.substack.com/p/are-teslas-the-most-or-least-safe https://brandonpaddock.substack.com/p/are-teslas-the-most-or...

two_handfuls 2y ago
> Some numbers are also surprising, such as the Model Y having almost twice the fatality rate (10.6 per billion miles) as the Tesla average (5.6) My guess is that is due to higher average occupancy for model Y vs model 3.
- m463 2y ago
  more chance of peanut butter interfering with critical touchscreen controls. Actually, I wonder... if a car is safe and avoids many accidents, could the unavoidable accidents be worse overall? Kind of like a drug that cures disease #1 blamed for causing disease #2... but actually the drug worked and the next statistical thing to die of after #1 was #2
  - vardump 2y ago
    > critical touchscreen controls Just curious, what kind of critical touch screen controls Tesla has? I thought there's nothing critical.
    - two_handfuls 2y ago
      In modern teslas I believe the turn signals and windshield wipers are capacitive buttons. I guess we can argue about whether those are critical.
      - porphyra 2y ago
        Those aren't touchscreen buttons --- they are on the steering wheel or yoke. On the current Model S and X they are capacitive buttons but there's a homing tab so you can find it without looking at it, and there's also haptic feedback. On the new Model 3 iirc it also physically clicks when you press it, although the lights and rear-facing camera button are capacitive. The only "critical control" that is on the touchscreen is choosing whether to go forward or backward (aka shifting into drive or reverse), which can be done on the touchscreen on the Model S, X, 3, and Cybertruck. Of course, this is typically only done when the vehicle is stopped, so it's fine. There are also backup physical buttons in case you can't use the touchscreen.
    - m463 2y ago
      gear selector, all climate controls including defrost, interior lights, fog lights, door locks, etc... No current tesla has stalks on steering wheel, so there are areas to touch on (rotating) wheel for turn signals, wiper, high beams

two_handfuls 2y ago

> Some numbers are also surprising, such as the Model Y having almost twice the fatality rate (10.6 per billion miles) as the Tesla average (5.6) My guess is that is due to higher average occupancy for model Y vs model 3.

m463 2y ago
more chance of peanut butter interfering with critical touchscreen controls. Actually, I wonder... if a car is safe and avoids many accidents, could the unavoidable accidents be worse overall? Kind of like a drug that cures disease #1 blamed for causing disease #2... but actually the drug worked and the next statistical thing to die of after #1 was #2
- vardump 2y ago
  > critical touchscreen controls Just curious, what kind of critical touch screen controls Tesla has? I thought there's nothing critical.
  - two_handfuls 2y ago
    In modern teslas I believe the turn signals and windshield wipers are capacitive buttons. I guess we can argue about whether those are critical.
    - porphyra 2y ago
      Those aren't touchscreen buttons --- they are on the steering wheel or yoke. On the current Model S and X they are capacitive buttons but there's a homing tab so you can find it without looking at it, and there's also haptic feedback. On the new Model 3 iirc it also physically clicks when you press it, although the lights and rear-facing camera button are capacitive. The only "critical control" that is on the touchscreen is choosing whether to go forward or backward (aka shifting into drive or reverse), which can be done on the touchscreen on the Model S, X, 3, and Cybertruck. Of course, this is typically only done when the vehicle is stopped, so it's fine. There are also backup physical buttons in case you can't use the touchscreen.
  - m463 2y ago
    gear selector, all climate controls including defrost, interior lights, fog lights, door locks, etc... No current tesla has stalks on steering wheel, so there are areas to touch on (rotating) wheel for turn signals, wiper, high beams