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No countries in Africa and Latin America would enforce the ICC arrest request for Putin. That's your straight-up speculation. Meanwhile, the fact that he hasn

No countries in Africa and Latin America would enforce the ICC arrest request for Putin. That's your straight-up speculation. Meanwhile, the fact that he hasn't visited any of those countries -- suggests he knows better.

ceejayoz 2y ago
It's not entirely speculation; South Africa certainly wanted to avoid it. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/south-africa-asks-icc-to-exempt-it-from-putin-arrest-to-avoid-war-with-russia-idUSKBN2YY1E6/ https://www.reuters.com/article/world/south-africa-asks-icc-... > South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has asked permission from the International Criminal Court not to arrest Russia's Vladimir Putin, because to do so would amount to a declaration of war, a local court submission published on Tuesday showed. Brazil waffled, too. https://www.reuters.com/world/up-brazils-judiciary-decide-putin-arrest-if-he-visits-brazil-lula-2023-09-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/up-brazils-judiciary-decide-pu... > On Saturday, while in India for a Group of 20 nations meeting, Lula told a local interviewer that there was "no way" Putin would be arrested if he attended next year's summit, which is due to be held in Rio de Janeiro.
- aguaviva 2y ago
  74 countries across the two regions, last we checked. You've got 72 to go.
  - ceejayoz 2y ago
    Only one - Chile - has affirmatively stated they’d execute the warrant. Small countries try not to piss off large nuclear powers with a history of polonium use.
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      So it's not "No countries in Latin America", then. And if we're going to use your dataset to extrapolate anything: probably half of them will enforce the warrant. More substantially: I don't see where you're going with these objections. It's not like I think the warrant will be hugely successful. But it has to be issued and -- until Putin shows a significant readiness to bend -- it has to be kept in place. And it will have some effect. The exact percentage of countries that can be counted on to enforce it on continent X is obviously irrelvant. I only jumped in because of the obviously vacuous, extremified formulation ("No country will ..."). Obviously they didn't mean it literally, but to underscore their point; but still -- it's a weird habit people unfortunately have on HN.
      - ceejayoz 2y ago
        > And if we're going to use your dataset to extrapolate anything: probably half of them will enforce the warrant. Even Chile's stated willingness is probably a bit like "if I were a billionaire I'd do <great things>" - easy to say when it's not an actual decision ready to be made. I like being pedantic as much as the next person, but "small developing countries don't love pissing off big angry ones with nukes" isn't the outrageous conclusion you're portraying it as.
        aguaviva 2y ago
        Except I'm not making that portrayal.

ceejayoz 2y ago

It's not entirely speculation; South Africa certainly wanted to avoid it. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/south-africa-asks-icc-to-exempt-it-from-putin-arrest-to-avoid-war-with-russia-idUSKBN2YY1E6/ https://www.reuters.com/article/world/south-africa-asks-icc-... > South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has asked permission from the International Criminal Court not to arrest Russia's Vladimir Putin, because to do so would amount to a declaration of war, a local court submission published on Tuesday showed. Brazil waffled, too. https://www.reuters.com/world/up-brazils-judiciary-decide-putin-arrest-if-he-visits-brazil-lula-2023-09-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/up-brazils-judiciary-decide-pu... > On Saturday, while in India for a Group of 20 nations meeting, Lula told a local interviewer that there was "no way" Putin would be arrested if he attended next year's summit, which is due to be held in Rio de Janeiro.

aguaviva 2y ago
74 countries across the two regions, last we checked. You've got 72 to go.
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  Only one - Chile - has affirmatively stated they’d execute the warrant. Small countries try not to piss off large nuclear powers with a history of polonium use.
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    So it's not "No countries in Latin America", then. And if we're going to use your dataset to extrapolate anything: probably half of them will enforce the warrant. More substantially: I don't see where you're going with these objections. It's not like I think the warrant will be hugely successful. But it has to be issued and -- until Putin shows a significant readiness to bend -- it has to be kept in place. And it will have some effect. The exact percentage of countries that can be counted on to enforce it on continent X is obviously irrelvant. I only jumped in because of the obviously vacuous, extremified formulation ("No country will ..."). Obviously they didn't mean it literally, but to underscore their point; but still -- it's a weird habit people unfortunately have on HN.
    - ceejayoz 2y ago
      > And if we're going to use your dataset to extrapolate anything: probably half of them will enforce the warrant. Even Chile's stated willingness is probably a bit like "if I were a billionaire I'd do <great things>" - easy to say when it's not an actual decision ready to be made. I like being pedantic as much as the next person, but "small developing countries don't love pissing off big angry ones with nukes" isn't the outrageous conclusion you're portraying it as.
      - aguaviva 2y ago
        Except I'm not making that portrayal.