5 ms·

I'm not sure you are right. Take a look at this map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Crim

by pepve 2y ago

I'm not sure you are right. Take a look at this map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court . I don't think "overwhelmingly reliant on the US" is an accurate description of the green countries on that map. Partially reliant sure. But not overwhelmingly.

belter 2y ago
No countries in Africa and Latin America would enforce the ICC arrest request for Putin. Concerning the rest of Europe, with the exception of the only military power left: France, are you arguing they could defend their sovereignty without the USA military big stick? "Why Europe Is Unprepared to Defend Itself" - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-nato-armed-forces/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-nato-armed-forces/
- aguaviva 2y ago
  No countries in Africa and Latin America would enforce the ICC arrest request for Putin. That's your straight-up speculation. Meanwhile, the fact that he hasn't visited any of those countries -- suggests he knows better.
  - ceejayoz 2y ago
    It's not entirely speculation; South Africa certainly wanted to avoid it. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/south-africa-asks-icc-to-exempt-it-from-putin-arrest-to-avoid-war-with-russia-idUSKBN2YY1E6/ https://www.reuters.com/article/world/south-africa-asks-icc-... > South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has asked permission from the International Criminal Court not to arrest Russia's Vladimir Putin, because to do so would amount to a declaration of war, a local court submission published on Tuesday showed. Brazil waffled, too. https://www.reuters.com/world/up-brazils-judiciary-decide-putin-arrest-if-he-visits-brazil-lula-2023-09-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/up-brazils-judiciary-decide-pu... > On Saturday, while in India for a Group of 20 nations meeting, Lula told a local interviewer that there was "no way" Putin would be arrested if he attended next year's summit, which is due to be held in Rio de Janeiro.
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      74 countries across the two regions, last we checked. You've got 72 to go.
      - ceejayoz 2y ago
        Only one - Chile - has affirmatively stated they’d execute the warrant. Small countries try not to piss off large nuclear powers with a history of polonium use.
        aguaviva 2y ago
        So it's not "No countries in Latin America", then. And if we're going to use your dataset to extrapolate anything: probably half of them will enforce the warrant. More substantially: I don't see where you're going with these objections. It's not like I think the warrant will be hugely successful. But it has to be issued and -- until Putin shows a significant readiness to bend -- it has to be kept in place. And it will have some effect. The exact percentage of countries that can be counted on to enforce it on continent X is obviously irrelvant. I only jumped in because of the obviously vacuous, extremified formulation ("No country will ..."). Obviously they didn't mean it literally, but to underscore their point; but still -- it's a weird habit people unfortunately have on HN.
        ceejayoz 2y ago
        > And if we're going to use your dataset to extrapolate anything: probably half of them will enforce the warrant. Even Chile's stated willingness is probably a bit like "if I were a billionaire I'd do <great things>" - easy to say when it's not an actual decision ready to be made. I like being pedantic as much as the next person, but "small developing countries don't love pissing off big angry ones with nukes" isn't the outrageous conclusion you're portraying it as.
        aguaviva 2y ago
        Except I'm not making that portrayal.
- cycomanic 2y ago
  You're making two arguments it seems, 1. Who is enforcing the arrest warrant against Putin, which I don't get, how should Europe or an African or Latin American country enforce the warrant enforce the warrant without Putin travelling there? I seriously doubt Putin would travel to a country where risks arrest. Or are you suggesting countries should invade Russia to arrest Putin. I don't see anyone including the US (thankfully) doing that. AFAIK that would also constitute a violation of international law (mind you many western countries really only care as long as it suits them, the whole Israel situation being a clear example). 2. The question if Europe could defend itself against invasion without the US. Defend against whom I have to ask, the only possible aggressor would be Russia, but Russia is struggling with their Ukraine invasion, a much smaller, less trained, less equipped force than Nato even without the US. The suggestion that Russia is in any position to threaten Europe is absolutely laughable. The only way that would happen is using nuclear weapons, and once we go down that path the whole world is f*ckd.
- HWR_14 2y ago
  Who does Europe need to defend itself against? Russia can't invade Ukraine, and it has 1/10 the population (less?) and arms that are leftovers from European armories (and US armories). Is China going to roll troops across a continent?
  - varjag 2y ago
    If North Korea does, why not China? Also worth mentioning that without the United States the present continental European militaries would struggle even against the battered ground forces of Russia. Can't really fight back with GDP of your service economy alone.
    - vkou 2y ago
      North Korea is involved in it for the same reason countries send military observers to conflicts. It hasn't fought a war in decades, and it needs to figure out whether or not any of its shit/doctrines/etc works. It doesn't actually give a rat's ass about Crimea or Ukraine or Russian claims. It fully relies on friendly logistics to participate in the conflict.
    - HWR_14 2y ago
      North Korea is being being paid by Russia to supply troops. Russia cannot afford Chinese troops. And even if they could afford them, China is throwing its weight around Asia and wants its military intact there.
      - varjag 2y ago
        Sure, and North Korea wants to man its border for the eventuality of war with the South. At least that's what everyone would have said before it happened. NK troops in Ukraine weren't on anyone's bingo card.
  - belter 2y ago
    Will your opinion change, when you see a photo of Polish soldiers looking at North Korean battalions across their fence border?
- fakedang 2y ago
  If that was the case, Putin shouldn't have holed up in Russia during the BRICS conference in South Africa earlier this year.
dingnuts 2y ago
You don't? I suggest you look at the figures for who is providing aid to Ukraine and ask yourself why the green nations in Europe are paying so much less than the US to fight Russia. This is why Trump won again, by the way. Because Europe expected the US to fund their defense in this war, and people who do not live in cities with access to the global market see no benefit to aiding Europe and voted that Europe should pay for its own defense. I guess now we'll get to see what happens when the US lets those European nations that are shaded green defend themselves without us.
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  > ask yourself why the green nations in Europe are paying so much less than the US to fight Russia Oh, this is simple. Ukraine would be able to defend itself if it kept nuclear weapons. However they signed a treaty with USA, UK and Russia and gave up their nuclear weapons in exchange for some security guarantees. Russia did not honor that agreement. If USA and UK fail to provide adequate support, nobody will sign such treaties again. What’s even worse, nuclear arms are becoming the only real security guarantee, so the fate of Ukraine defines the fate of nuclear non-proliferation.
  - bluGill 2y ago
    Ukraine couldn't have kept nuclear weapons. It needs a lot of technical expertise to do that, particularly in today's world where you only test them in simulation which means you need great ability to trust your simulations. Ukraine didn't even have the keys to use the weapons they had (Russia did) which means they needed to first rebuild each with new keys. Not that Ukraine couldn't do all that, but they just don't have the money to do that and everything else they also need to do. Nuclear weapons are an obvious first thing to go because they are only useful in a situation where you want to end the world. In almost all cases it is better to be able to defend yourself without ending the world.
    - snovv_crash 2y ago
      Ukraine built those nuclear weapons.

by pepve 2y ago

belter 2y ago

No countries in Africa and Latin America would enforce the ICC arrest request for Putin. Concerning the rest of Europe, with the exception of the only military power left: France, are you arguing they could defend their sovereignty without the USA military big stick? "Why Europe Is Unprepared to Defend Itself" - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-nato-armed-forces/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-nato-armed-forces/

aguaviva 2y ago
No countries in Africa and Latin America would enforce the ICC arrest request for Putin. That's your straight-up speculation. Meanwhile, the fact that he hasn't visited any of those countries -- suggests he knows better.
- ceejayoz 2y ago
  It's not entirely speculation; South Africa certainly wanted to avoid it. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/south-africa-asks-icc-to-exempt-it-from-putin-arrest-to-avoid-war-with-russia-idUSKBN2YY1E6/ https://www.reuters.com/article/world/south-africa-asks-icc-... > South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has asked permission from the International Criminal Court not to arrest Russia's Vladimir Putin, because to do so would amount to a declaration of war, a local court submission published on Tuesday showed. Brazil waffled, too. https://www.reuters.com/world/up-brazils-judiciary-decide-putin-arrest-if-he-visits-brazil-lula-2023-09-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/up-brazils-judiciary-decide-pu... > On Saturday, while in India for a Group of 20 nations meeting, Lula told a local interviewer that there was "no way" Putin would be arrested if he attended next year's summit, which is due to be held in Rio de Janeiro.
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    74 countries across the two regions, last we checked. You've got 72 to go.
    - ceejayoz 2y ago
      Only one - Chile - has affirmatively stated they’d execute the warrant. Small countries try not to piss off large nuclear powers with a history of polonium use.
      - aguaviva 2y ago
        So it's not "No countries in Latin America", then. And if we're going to use your dataset to extrapolate anything: probably half of them will enforce the warrant. More substantially: I don't see where you're going with these objections. It's not like I think the warrant will be hugely successful. But it has to be issued and -- until Putin shows a significant readiness to bend -- it has to be kept in place. And it will have some effect. The exact percentage of countries that can be counted on to enforce it on continent X is obviously irrelvant. I only jumped in because of the obviously vacuous, extremified formulation ("No country will ..."). Obviously they didn't mean it literally, but to underscore their point; but still -- it's a weird habit people unfortunately have on HN.
        ceejayoz 2y ago
        > And if we're going to use your dataset to extrapolate anything: probably half of them will enforce the warrant. Even Chile's stated willingness is probably a bit like "if I were a billionaire I'd do <great things>" - easy to say when it's not an actual decision ready to be made. I like being pedantic as much as the next person, but "small developing countries don't love pissing off big angry ones with nukes" isn't the outrageous conclusion you're portraying it as.
        aguaviva 2y ago
        Except I'm not making that portrayal.
cycomanic 2y ago
You're making two arguments it seems, 1. Who is enforcing the arrest warrant against Putin, which I don't get, how should Europe or an African or Latin American country enforce the warrant enforce the warrant without Putin travelling there? I seriously doubt Putin would travel to a country where risks arrest. Or are you suggesting countries should invade Russia to arrest Putin. I don't see anyone including the US (thankfully) doing that. AFAIK that would also constitute a violation of international law (mind you many western countries really only care as long as it suits them, the whole Israel situation being a clear example). 2. The question if Europe could defend itself against invasion without the US. Defend against whom I have to ask, the only possible aggressor would be Russia, but Russia is struggling with their Ukraine invasion, a much smaller, less trained, less equipped force than Nato even without the US. The suggestion that Russia is in any position to threaten Europe is absolutely laughable. The only way that would happen is using nuclear weapons, and once we go down that path the whole world is f*ckd.
HWR_14 2y ago
Who does Europe need to defend itself against? Russia can't invade Ukraine, and it has 1/10 the population (less?) and arms that are leftovers from European armories (and US armories). Is China going to roll troops across a continent?
- varjag 2y ago
  If North Korea does, why not China? Also worth mentioning that without the United States the present continental European militaries would struggle even against the battered ground forces of Russia. Can't really fight back with GDP of your service economy alone.
  - vkou 2y ago
    North Korea is involved in it for the same reason countries send military observers to conflicts. It hasn't fought a war in decades, and it needs to figure out whether or not any of its shit/doctrines/etc works. It doesn't actually give a rat's ass about Crimea or Ukraine or Russian claims. It fully relies on friendly logistics to participate in the conflict.
  - HWR_14 2y ago
    North Korea is being being paid by Russia to supply troops. Russia cannot afford Chinese troops. And even if they could afford them, China is throwing its weight around Asia and wants its military intact there.
    - varjag 2y ago
      Sure, and North Korea wants to man its border for the eventuality of war with the South. At least that's what everyone would have said before it happened. NK troops in Ukraine weren't on anyone's bingo card.
- belter 2y ago
  Will your opinion change, when you see a photo of Polish soldiers looking at North Korean battalions across their fence border?
fakedang 2y ago
If that was the case, Putin shouldn't have holed up in Russia during the BRICS conference in South Africa earlier this year.

dingnuts 2y ago

You don't? I suggest you look at the figures for who is providing aid to Ukraine and ask yourself why the green nations in Europe are paying so much less than the US to fight Russia. This is why Trump won again, by the way. Because Europe expected the US to fund their defense in this war, and people who do not live in cities with access to the global market see no benefit to aiding Europe and voted that Europe should pay for its own defense. I guess now we'll get to see what happens when the US lets those European nations that are shaded green defend themselves without us.

ivan_gammel 2y ago
> ask yourself why the green nations in Europe are paying so much less than the US to fight Russia Oh, this is simple. Ukraine would be able to defend itself if it kept nuclear weapons. However they signed a treaty with USA, UK and Russia and gave up their nuclear weapons in exchange for some security guarantees. Russia did not honor that agreement. If USA and UK fail to provide adequate support, nobody will sign such treaties again. What’s even worse, nuclear arms are becoming the only real security guarantee, so the fate of Ukraine defines the fate of nuclear non-proliferation.
- bluGill 2y ago
  Ukraine couldn't have kept nuclear weapons. It needs a lot of technical expertise to do that, particularly in today's world where you only test them in simulation which means you need great ability to trust your simulations. Ukraine didn't even have the keys to use the weapons they had (Russia did) which means they needed to first rebuild each with new keys. Not that Ukraine couldn't do all that, but they just don't have the money to do that and everything else they also need to do. Nuclear weapons are an obvious first thing to go because they are only useful in a situation where you want to end the world. In almost all cases it is better to be able to defend yourself without ending the world.
  - snovv_crash 2y ago
    Ukraine built those nuclear weapons.