One thing that's important to recognize is that this all isn't just a game where you spend some amount of money on R&D, and inevitably unlock the next tech. In

One thing that's important to recognize is that this all isn't just a game where you spend some amount of money on R&D, and inevitably unlock the next tech. In a parallel timeline where NASA gets 100billion a year, but there is no SpaceX, it's entirely possible that the pre-SpaceX status quo just continued on indefinitely. After all when SpaceX was first developing their tech, they were being actively mocked by Boeing/Lockheed (via Tory Bruno) with comments akin to 'yeah cute idea, we worked it out decades ago - not economically feasible. have fun learning.' The SLS was going to be NASA's next big vessel, and costs there are trending to what could be around 4 billion a launch. With costs like that you're never going to do beat things in space.