4 ms·

My route from Poland to dedi box leased from Hetzner in Finland currently goes through AS1299 / twelve99.net (Warsaw->Talinn->Helsinki) peering, and there's a s

by voytec 2y ago

My route from Poland to dedi box leased from Hetzner in Finland currently goes through AS1299 / twelve99.net (Warsaw->Talinn->Helsinki) peering, and there's a slight increase in latency since the cable cut. On a normal day, it's Poland -> Hetzner in Germany -> Hetzner in Finland. I'm guessing that the situation hurts companies like Hetzner financially.

hulitu 2y ago
> I'm guessing that the situation hurts companies like Hetzner financially. So maybe, in the end, is a Hetzner competitor who profits from those "cable cuts". /s Just follow the money.
- FollowingTheDao 2y ago
  I think you have to follow the really big money. What if these cuts were meant to route traffic through a specific network to intecept data?
  - voytec 2y ago
    I like your thought pattern.
Hamuko 2y ago
I assume they need to pony up to get the cable repaired (unless there's insurance against such thing) but I'm not sure if I see the cable connection itself being a huge financial hit. Submarine cables getting damaged is fairly normal, and from what I've read, it should be back up by the end of the month.
input_sh 2y ago
I don't think a slight increase in latency can hurt them financially in any way. From my own measurements between Hetzner's datacenters, the latency increased from 25 ms to 40 ms. Mildly amusing to say this had a direct, measurable impact on me? Absolutely. Something to lose sleep over? Maybe in some extremely niche situations.
- wongarsu 2y ago
  I'd assume the financial impact is from increased costs for traffic. For Hetzner's customers traffic is somewhere between free and $1/TB, compared to AWS's $90/TB. Hence Hetzner hosts a lot of high traffic websites, and their margins on traffic have to be pretty slim. And with the cheap low-latency connection between the DCs some customers are bound to run a lot of traffic between servers in different Hetzner DCs. Now I don't know what their peering agreements look like, but it seems like they normally route everything through Frankfurt's internet exchange and now have to take some different routes.
mandevil 2y ago
I mean, it will definitely cost someone money to go fix the cables. I know that in the US, our insurance explicitly does not cover acts of war (1) so I would be curious as to how insurance covers this. I suspect that the costs of moving extra bits through other cables is not large. I would assume that Hetzner (and the other companies that own parts of these cables) have peering agreements with other companies and that most of them will not try and take advantage of the cut cables to renegotiate their peering agreements (2). So whatever rates they paid before will still be paid. 1: Because a war creates a problem for the risk pool, it is one of the things that actually can destroy huge amounts of property simultaneously, so it is a risk explicitly separated out and basically impossible to insure against, at least in the US commercial market. 2: Too risky to start renegotiating when your cable can be cut just as easily the next time.
- killingtime74 2y ago
  Is there any actual evidence that this is an act of war? Comments on Hacker News and reddit are not evidence. Act of war by a civilian Chinese tanker (not Chinese military vessel) against whom?
  - shaboinkin 2y ago
    Recent events suggest dismissing sabotage as a likely cause would be foolish. 10:13 presents details involving sabotage throughout Europe as well as states choosing to not disclose to their public about the nature of what is happening to avoid spooking their citizens https://youtu.be/6KVnJqaBsnk?t=613&si=8lgB4A7x2fSmJC4N https://youtu.be/6KVnJqaBsnk?t=613&si=8lgB4A7x2fSmJC4N NATO’s Admiral Rob Bauer discusses what he is at liberty to disclose to Arctic nations https://youtu.be/DjpALbzKdJM?si=b4uU2KZ18JlNW5wf https://youtu.be/DjpALbzKdJM?si=b4uU2KZ18JlNW5wf I’m willing to trust what he’s saying verses online discourse where individuals will never have the level of insight as someone in his position.
    - killingtime74 2y ago
      Yes but he's not a lawyer. We're not talking about military strategy. Sabotage is not necessarily an act of war. Sabotage can also be simple crime. Crime is not excluded from insurance payouts. Think about the MV Dali that crashed into the bridge in Baltimore. Was that an act of war by Singapore against the United states? Six people actually died in that case.

by voytec 2y ago

hulitu 2y ago

> I'm guessing that the situation hurts companies like Hetzner financially. So maybe, in the end, is a Hetzner competitor who profits from those "cable cuts". /s Just follow the money.

FollowingTheDao 2y ago
I think you have to follow the really big money. What if these cuts were meant to route traffic through a specific network to intecept data?
- voytec 2y ago
  I like your thought pattern.

Hamuko 2y ago

I assume they need to pony up to get the cable repaired (unless there's insurance against such thing) but I'm not sure if I see the cable connection itself being a huge financial hit. Submarine cables getting damaged is fairly normal, and from what I've read, it should be back up by the end of the month.

input_sh 2y ago

I don't think a slight increase in latency can hurt them financially in any way. From my own measurements between Hetzner's datacenters, the latency increased from 25 ms to 40 ms. Mildly amusing to say this had a direct, measurable impact on me? Absolutely. Something to lose sleep over? Maybe in some extremely niche situations.

wongarsu 2y ago
I'd assume the financial impact is from increased costs for traffic. For Hetzner's customers traffic is somewhere between free and $1/TB, compared to AWS's $90/TB. Hence Hetzner hosts a lot of high traffic websites, and their margins on traffic have to be pretty slim. And with the cheap low-latency connection between the DCs some customers are bound to run a lot of traffic between servers in different Hetzner DCs. Now I don't know what their peering agreements look like, but it seems like they normally route everything through Frankfurt's internet exchange and now have to take some different routes.

mandevil 2y ago

I mean, it will definitely cost someone money to go fix the cables. I know that in the US, our insurance explicitly does not cover acts of war (1) so I would be curious as to how insurance covers this. I suspect that the costs of moving extra bits through other cables is not large. I would assume that Hetzner (and the other companies that own parts of these cables) have peering agreements with other companies and that most of them will not try and take advantage of the cut cables to renegotiate their peering agreements (2). So whatever rates they paid before will still be paid. 1: Because a war creates a problem for the risk pool, it is one of the things that actually can destroy huge amounts of property simultaneously, so it is a risk explicitly separated out and basically impossible to insure against, at least in the US commercial market. 2: Too risky to start renegotiating when your cable can be cut just as easily the next time.

killingtime74 2y ago
Is there any actual evidence that this is an act of war? Comments on Hacker News and reddit are not evidence. Act of war by a civilian Chinese tanker (not Chinese military vessel) against whom?
- shaboinkin 2y ago
  Recent events suggest dismissing sabotage as a likely cause would be foolish. 10:13 presents details involving sabotage throughout Europe as well as states choosing to not disclose to their public about the nature of what is happening to avoid spooking their citizens https://youtu.be/6KVnJqaBsnk?t=613&si=8lgB4A7x2fSmJC4N https://youtu.be/6KVnJqaBsnk?t=613&si=8lgB4A7x2fSmJC4N NATO’s Admiral Rob Bauer discusses what he is at liberty to disclose to Arctic nations https://youtu.be/DjpALbzKdJM?si=b4uU2KZ18JlNW5wf https://youtu.be/DjpALbzKdJM?si=b4uU2KZ18JlNW5wf I’m willing to trust what he’s saying verses online discourse where individuals will never have the level of insight as someone in his position.
  - killingtime74 2y ago
    Yes but he's not a lawyer. We're not talking about military strategy. Sabotage is not necessarily an act of war. Sabotage can also be simple crime. Crime is not excluded from insurance payouts. Think about the MV Dali that crashed into the bridge in Baltimore. Was that an act of war by Singapore against the United states? Six people actually died in that case.