7 ms·

I would guess that it would still be possible to send things beyond earth's orbit with only a low probability of collision with debris but perhaps I'm wrong.

to11mtm 2y ago
"Low" is tough to say until someone does some proper sort of 'true mapping' of space debris in the range somehow. Protection would require a lot of complexity and cost due to the need for shielding and the delta-v to move it up there.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > until someone does some proper sort of 'true mapping' of space debris in the range somehow You look at which satellites poofed and then figure out the maximum extent their debris could have drifted.
  - mapt 2y ago
    That works a little bit when we're talking about one satellite poofing in a year based on a collision with another satellite, and not at all when we're talking about thousands of events a year, many of which are satellite-debris collisions too small to track (you only get one orbital vector), or between pieces of debris. Every collision generates hundreds, maybe thousands of pieces of debris, only the largest of which are trackable.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      Not really. There are uncertainty bands. But based on the collision you know which orbits are spoiled for about how long.
- vlovich123 2y ago
  Rather than protection on each rocket, couldn't you just send a bunch of fortified rockets that absorb the debris during a collision but don't emit anything. Do that a few times and then all other rockets just reuse the path that was cut?
  - mapt 2y ago
    Orbit is not a location. Orbit is a group of velocity-location vectors which form a stable loop around a body, without intersecting that body. Imagine a bullet circling your head at mach 25. Now imagine a second bullet, circling your head at a slightly different angle, at a slightly different distance from your head. There's a chance that they could collide, and the resulting explosion would leave a great deal of dust... on a mixture of velocities, still circling your head. Now add a third bullet, also on a slightly different vector; Make sure that it doesn't collide with any of that dust! The actual situation is we aren't dealing with 3 bullets or 100 bullets, we have ~170 million objects orbiting the Earth, and only around 50,000 are large enough to track. They are all moving fast enough in relation to each other that a collision would result in a sizable explosion, not an elastic agglomeration. We have no way of removing them. The good news is that there is a large volume of space for them to exist in. The bad news is that as we continue to fill it up, odds of collisions increase, and every collision spawns many, many more objects.
    - vlovich123 2y ago
      You’ve explained what Kessler syndrome is but not why my idea doesn’t work. I’m saying send reinforced rockets through the orbits that absorb the collision instead of generating more dust. That should let you clear a path through all orbits that intersect your path. It’s hard to do and the 3d aspect of it might make it expensive but conceptually it could be a solution. Or use super powerful lasers (potentially mounted on a satellite) to deorbit the dust
      - immibis 2y ago
        It takes about 90 minutes to complete a low earth orbit. A rocket can't hover in place for 90 minutes at the same altitude, then increase its altitude by its height and repeat. It doesn't have enough fuel for that.
        vlovich123 2y ago
        Go the other way. Attain maximum altitude and then descend slowly. You don’t need to do this with just one rocket. This would be a clearing exercise composed of multiple rockets.
0x1ceb00da 2y ago
Every launch failure will result in more debris and even lower probability of a successful future launch.

to11mtm 2y ago

"Low" is tough to say until someone does some proper sort of 'true mapping' of space debris in the range somehow. Protection would require a lot of complexity and cost due to the need for shielding and the delta-v to move it up there.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> until someone does some proper sort of 'true mapping' of space debris in the range somehow You look at which satellites poofed and then figure out the maximum extent their debris could have drifted.
- mapt 2y ago
  That works a little bit when we're talking about one satellite poofing in a year based on a collision with another satellite, and not at all when we're talking about thousands of events a year, many of which are satellite-debris collisions too small to track (you only get one orbital vector), or between pieces of debris. Every collision generates hundreds, maybe thousands of pieces of debris, only the largest of which are trackable.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    Not really. There are uncertainty bands. But based on the collision you know which orbits are spoiled for about how long.
vlovich123 2y ago
Rather than protection on each rocket, couldn't you just send a bunch of fortified rockets that absorb the debris during a collision but don't emit anything. Do that a few times and then all other rockets just reuse the path that was cut?
- mapt 2y ago
  Orbit is not a location. Orbit is a group of velocity-location vectors which form a stable loop around a body, without intersecting that body. Imagine a bullet circling your head at mach 25. Now imagine a second bullet, circling your head at a slightly different angle, at a slightly different distance from your head. There's a chance that they could collide, and the resulting explosion would leave a great deal of dust... on a mixture of velocities, still circling your head. Now add a third bullet, also on a slightly different vector; Make sure that it doesn't collide with any of that dust! The actual situation is we aren't dealing with 3 bullets or 100 bullets, we have ~170 million objects orbiting the Earth, and only around 50,000 are large enough to track. They are all moving fast enough in relation to each other that a collision would result in a sizable explosion, not an elastic agglomeration. We have no way of removing them. The good news is that there is a large volume of space for them to exist in. The bad news is that as we continue to fill it up, odds of collisions increase, and every collision spawns many, many more objects.
  - vlovich123 2y ago
    You’ve explained what Kessler syndrome is but not why my idea doesn’t work. I’m saying send reinforced rockets through the orbits that absorb the collision instead of generating more dust. That should let you clear a path through all orbits that intersect your path. It’s hard to do and the 3d aspect of it might make it expensive but conceptually it could be a solution. Or use super powerful lasers (potentially mounted on a satellite) to deorbit the dust
    - immibis 2y ago
      It takes about 90 minutes to complete a low earth orbit. A rocket can't hover in place for 90 minutes at the same altitude, then increase its altitude by its height and repeat. It doesn't have enough fuel for that.
      - vlovich123 2y ago
        Go the other way. Attain maximum altitude and then descend slowly. You don’t need to do this with just one rocket. This would be a clearing exercise composed of multiple rockets.

0x1ceb00da 2y ago

Every launch failure will result in more debris and even lower probability of a successful future launch.