> an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines This is the singularity as far as I'm concerned: when AI is smart enough to design a better AI,

> an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines This is the singularity as far as I'm concerned: when AI is smart enough to design a better AI, which will be even smarter and therefore able to design an even better AI, ad infinitum. We are absolutely nowhere close to that today. You might say: but TSMC and nVidia are using AI to help them design better chips for the AI to run on! (I don't know if that's true, but I'm sure it will be within the next few years.) But that's no different than saying: look, these better hammers have led to better metal forging which has led to even better hammers! Our tools have always been improving in this way. For the singularity to happen, the AI has to be able to do the entire cycle on its own, so that all you need to throw at it is more compute and you get exponential (or at least superlinear) growth of intelligence out.