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Russia will not use nukes. If you believe they will, then they have you exactly where they want you to be.

lukan 2y ago
So how do you know that? Why wouldn't russia use a tactical nuke in west Ukraine to destroy tank factories? They already are a international Pariah, that is why they align with North Korea. The only answer is - to remain the last standing they have. But at some point, they might not care. It is dangerous to put someone with nukes in a desperate position. Putin would not survive retreating from Ukraine - he would be in a desperate position if the odds of war are against him - currently they ain't.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- aguaviva 2y ago
  Why wouldn't russia use a tactical nuke in west Ukraine to destroy tank factories? Because the Biden administration communicated to its regime (in late 2022) that this would definitely trigger a massive kinetic response. In particular it indicated that its ground forces in Ukraine would be utterly destroyed (as Putin knows it is very much capable of doing).
  - lukan 2y ago
    Talking and doing are not the same thing. Geopolitics is like Poker, who is bluffing and who is calling it. You are saying only Putin is bluffing - well, I do read russian military blogs/telegram chats. Spoiler: they also think Biden is bluffing. Don't you see, how this can turn out wrong?
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      Anything can happen, and people say all sorts of stuff online. But from the fact that the warning was expresed privately, and using carefully chosen language (unlike Putin's warnings, which are generally aimed at the public sphere, and are full of bluster) -- and considering, again, that the US is fully capable of carrying through with its promise in this regard -- it seems likely the message was received as intended. Could still go wrong, but the likelihood of things going wrong by not promising any sufficiently serious consequences at all to Russia's regime if it actually deploys nukes seems to be (unequivocally) far greater.
      - lukan 2y ago
        If the warning would have been really private, you would not know about it. Since you know about it - it was apparently rather a public statement as well. We both don't know about the real backroom deals and what exact words are used there. What are the real red lines that are communicated behind the curtains - most of those statements are just show. Part of the game. I am pretty sure, that Putin would like to remain in power and not radiated. But I would not bet on it. There are rumors he is sick - and sacrifice and suffering is somehow part of the russian mentality.
        llamaimperative 2y ago
        The threat is public so people like you can go and sow fear because Russia itself has been revealed as a paper tiger. Kleptocracy can only take a modern civilization so far.
        lukan 2y ago
        "because Russia itself has been revealed as a paper tiger." I see, you have personally checked the russian nukes and found they are all worthless? Or have access to top secret informations confirming that? Otherwise it seems a bit out of this world, to claim the country with the most nukes on earth is a paper tiger. And the russian conventional military is far from a paper tiger as well. That tale comes from the fantasy, that Ukraine is facing russia alone. But the whole NATO is supporting it. Without NATOs weapons and money, Ukraine would have been russian since over 2 years. But yes, I do have fear. But more from people like you, who look at reality in a way, that fits their ideology. Just assume for a moment, you are wrong. What would happen as a result, if the people in command would think like you?
        llamaimperative 2y ago
        No, you don't need to check the nukes. MAD still works just like it has for decades. It's inconvenient but this was where we had to wind up the moment we split the atom. People knew the moment we split the atom that this is where we'd wind up. > And the russian conventional military is far from a paper tiger as well. Lol okay. > Just assume for a moment, you are wrong How about you assume that you are wrong, and you are volunteering for a world where once a nation acquires a nuclear weapon they are allowed to run roughshod over the entire world, raping whoever they want, torturing whoever they want, and cowards will just line up and beg the victims to allow them to continue? Do you hear yourself? The alternative here is not sunshine and rainbows. The alternative is an even more vigorous race to nuclear weapons from the most vicious regimes on the planet and more horrific crimes committed and excused under nuclear blackmail. If Russia launches a nuke, they are the criminals. Not the people who stood up to them and "forced" them to do it. Russia has all the agency in the world. They could turn around and march back to Moscow today. How about you go do your "peacemaking" beggar appeasement routine on VK and tell Russians to tremble in fear of the United States deleting their civilization?
- pvaldes 2y ago
  > Putin would not survive retreating from Ukraine A most interesting question is: Would survive Trump?

So how do you know that? Why wouldn't russia use a tactical nuke in west Ukraine to destroy tank factories? They already are a international Pariah, that is why they align with North Korea. The only answer is - to remain the last standing they have. But at some point, they might not care. It is dangerous to put someone with nukes in a desperate position. Putin would not survive retreating from Ukraine - he would be in a desperate position if the odds of war are against him - currently they ain't.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
aguaviva 2y ago
Why wouldn't russia use a tactical nuke in west Ukraine to destroy tank factories? Because the Biden administration communicated to its regime (in late 2022) that this would definitely trigger a massive kinetic response. In particular it indicated that its ground forces in Ukraine would be utterly destroyed (as Putin knows it is very much capable of doing).
- lukan 2y ago
  Talking and doing are not the same thing. Geopolitics is like Poker, who is bluffing and who is calling it. You are saying only Putin is bluffing - well, I do read russian military blogs/telegram chats. Spoiler: they also think Biden is bluffing. Don't you see, how this can turn out wrong?
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    Anything can happen, and people say all sorts of stuff online. But from the fact that the warning was expresed privately, and using carefully chosen language (unlike Putin's warnings, which are generally aimed at the public sphere, and are full of bluster) -- and considering, again, that the US is fully capable of carrying through with its promise in this regard -- it seems likely the message was received as intended. Could still go wrong, but the likelihood of things going wrong by not promising any sufficiently serious consequences at all to Russia's regime if it actually deploys nukes seems to be (unequivocally) far greater.
    - lukan 2y ago
      If the warning would have been really private, you would not know about it. Since you know about it - it was apparently rather a public statement as well. We both don't know about the real backroom deals and what exact words are used there. What are the real red lines that are communicated behind the curtains - most of those statements are just show. Part of the game. I am pretty sure, that Putin would like to remain in power and not radiated. But I would not bet on it. There are rumors he is sick - and sacrifice and suffering is somehow part of the russian mentality.
      - llamaimperative 2y ago
        The threat is public so people like you can go and sow fear because Russia itself has been revealed as a paper tiger. Kleptocracy can only take a modern civilization so far.
        lukan 2y ago
        "because Russia itself has been revealed as a paper tiger." I see, you have personally checked the russian nukes and found they are all worthless? Or have access to top secret informations confirming that? Otherwise it seems a bit out of this world, to claim the country with the most nukes on earth is a paper tiger. And the russian conventional military is far from a paper tiger as well. That tale comes from the fantasy, that Ukraine is facing russia alone. But the whole NATO is supporting it. Without NATOs weapons and money, Ukraine would have been russian since over 2 years. But yes, I do have fear. But more from people like you, who look at reality in a way, that fits their ideology. Just assume for a moment, you are wrong. What would happen as a result, if the people in command would think like you?
        llamaimperative 2y ago
        No, you don't need to check the nukes. MAD still works just like it has for decades. It's inconvenient but this was where we had to wind up the moment we split the atom. People knew the moment we split the atom that this is where we'd wind up. > And the russian conventional military is far from a paper tiger as well. Lol okay. > Just assume for a moment, you are wrong How about you assume that you are wrong, and you are volunteering for a world where once a nation acquires a nuclear weapon they are allowed to run roughshod over the entire world, raping whoever they want, torturing whoever they want, and cowards will just line up and beg the victims to allow them to continue? Do you hear yourself? The alternative here is not sunshine and rainbows. The alternative is an even more vigorous race to nuclear weapons from the most vicious regimes on the planet and more horrific crimes committed and excused under nuclear blackmail. If Russia launches a nuke, they are the criminals. Not the people who stood up to them and "forced" them to do it. Russia has all the agency in the world. They could turn around and march back to Moscow today. How about you go do your "peacemaking" beggar appeasement routine on VK and tell Russians to tremble in fear of the United States deleting their civilization?
pvaldes 2y ago
> Putin would not survive retreating from Ukraine A most interesting question is: Would survive Trump?