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AI's Slowdown Is Everyone Else's Opportunity

13 points by marban 2y ago

terabytest 2y ago
http://archive.is/rGX3C http://archive.is/rGX3C
daft_pink 2y ago
The fact that Claude is automatically pushing me to an inferior concise mode and seems to be focused on saving processsor cycles due to high demand seems to indicate that AI isn’t slowing down at all, it’s use is accelerating and data center investment is going to accelerate. It’s just a random data point, but it makes me less skeptical of Nvidia’s current earnings sustainability the way that not being able to get your hand on an iPhone for a few months used to indicate Apple’s profit sustainability and current weakness.
- dlevine 2y ago
  AI adoption can be increasing even if progress of the base technology has slowed down. LLMs as a technology are very new, and there are doubtless tons of interesting uses we have yet to discover.
- hatsix 2y ago
  Your experience matches the claims in the article: the slowdown isn't in adoption, but in capabilities. The article discusses how the last few years of "just throw more processing at it" has hit diminishing returns across the board. The article suggests that this pause is a great time for businesses to catch their breath and figure out what to do about the current tech, whether they've been waiting to adopt or are concerned about competing.
jondwillis 2y ago
I think the slowdown being breathlessly reported right now is yet to be substantiated. AI has had a lot of winters, and model size scaling might be leveling off in terms of capability, but there could be another breakthrough or optimization right around the corner. That being said, my head is spinning from the last two years and I could also use some breathing room.
- startupsfail 2y ago
  The rate of breakthroughs had accelerated substantially, thanks to some of the help from AI that can write code, the field getting into the mainstream and democratizing the access to AI.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
codingwagie 2y ago
Slowdown? Sonnet 3.5 came out in June, and was a step change in programming capability. Zoom out 5 years and we are moving at lightning pace. This is like saying bitcoin isnt ripping because it went down for six months. Non linear progress doesn't monotonically increase
YetAnotherNick 2y ago
> The multi-trillion-dollar artificial intelligence boom was built on certainty that generative models would keep getting exponentially better. Spoiler alert: they aren’t. The only two sources this post provides are another Bloomberg articles. And the sources to those are "according to three people with knowledge of the matter".

13 points by marban 2y ago

http://archive.is/rGX3C http://archive.is/rGX3C

The fact that Claude is automatically pushing me to an inferior concise mode and seems to be focused on saving processsor cycles due to high demand seems to indicate that AI isn’t slowing down at all, it’s use is accelerating and data center investment is going to accelerate. It’s just a random data point, but it makes me less skeptical of Nvidia’s current earnings sustainability the way that not being able to get your hand on an iPhone for a few months used to indicate Apple’s profit sustainability and current weakness.

dlevine 2y ago
AI adoption can be increasing even if progress of the base technology has slowed down. LLMs as a technology are very new, and there are doubtless tons of interesting uses we have yet to discover.
hatsix 2y ago
Your experience matches the claims in the article: the slowdown isn't in adoption, but in capabilities. The article discusses how the last few years of "just throw more processing at it" has hit diminishing returns across the board. The article suggests that this pause is a great time for businesses to catch their breath and figure out what to do about the current tech, whether they've been waiting to adopt or are concerned about competing.

jondwillis 2y ago

I think the slowdown being breathlessly reported right now is yet to be substantiated. AI has had a lot of winters, and model size scaling might be leveling off in terms of capability, but there could be another breakthrough or optimization right around the corner. That being said, my head is spinning from the last two years and I could also use some breathing room.

startupsfail 2y ago
The rate of breakthroughs had accelerated substantially, thanks to some of the help from AI that can write code, the field getting into the mainstream and democratizing the access to AI.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

codingwagie 2y ago

Slowdown? Sonnet 3.5 came out in June, and was a step change in programming capability. Zoom out 5 years and we are moving at lightning pace. This is like saying bitcoin isnt ripping because it went down for six months. Non linear progress doesn't monotonically increase

YetAnotherNick 2y ago

> The multi-trillion-dollar artificial intelligence boom was built on certainty that generative models would keep getting exponentially better. Spoiler alert: they aren’t. The only two sources this post provides are another Bloomberg articles. And the sources to those are "according to three people with knowledge of the matter".