4 ms·

> we get a new cambrian idea or core technology every 5-10 years, and obviously AI/ML is the current one since Nov 2022. Seems like a backwards way of looking

> we get a new cambrian idea or core technology every 5-10 years, and obviously AI/ML is the current one since Nov 2022. Seems like a backwards way of looking at it. There is _always_ a cambrian explosion every 5-10 years therefore AI is that explosion? Seems like you're asking for false positives. What if we _don't_ have one every 5-10 years?

samatman 2y ago
You're conflating an observation about the past with a prediction about the future. There's no reason to do that.
- afavour 2y ago
  > You're conflating an observation about the past with a prediction about the future No I'm not? OP said: > we get a new cambrian idea or core technology every 5-10 years I'm not the one conflating anything here.
  - randomdata 2y ago
    > OP said Exactly. Just as we also see the sun rise each morning. That, however, does not imply one predicts that the sun will forever rise each morning. In fact, we know that at some point the sun will no longer rise in the morning. But we see the sun rise each morning, and we see a new cambrian idea or core technology every 5-10 years. > I'm not the one conflating anything here. That's fair. Conflation implies intent. Whereas you are just confused.
    - afavour 2y ago
      > You're just confused. And you are being patronising. My point is that there’s no guarantee this tech explosion will continue. Your logic appears to be “it has, so it will, until it doesn’t”, which… okay? All of your comments so far feel like you’re disagreeing with me just because you feel like being argumentative rather than because you have something useful to say.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
    - samatman 2y ago
      It doesn't actually: > Conflation is the merging of two or more sets of information, texts, ideas, or opinions into one, often in error. It can be done as a rhetorical ploy, but that's not part of the definition, it can also simply be a mistake.
kylebenzle 2y ago
EXACTLY! It's like "AI" is here only because VC needed a next "thing." ChatBots are super cool and useful but they are not the AI being sold.
- edanm 2y ago
  AI is here because an AI product came out that millions of users found actually useful. The massive success of ChatGPT is what brought the current era of hype around AI - it's not anything VCs did.
- Gud 2y ago
  Chatbots sucks, I want a human.
randomdata 2y ago
> What if we _don't_ have one every 5-10 years? Then the observed trend will come to an end. Seems rather obvious, no?

samatman 2y ago

You're conflating an observation about the past with a prediction about the future. There's no reason to do that.

afavour 2y ago
> You're conflating an observation about the past with a prediction about the future No I'm not? OP said: > we get a new cambrian idea or core technology every 5-10 years I'm not the one conflating anything here.
- randomdata 2y ago
  > OP said Exactly. Just as we also see the sun rise each morning. That, however, does not imply one predicts that the sun will forever rise each morning. In fact, we know that at some point the sun will no longer rise in the morning. But we see the sun rise each morning, and we see a new cambrian idea or core technology every 5-10 years. > I'm not the one conflating anything here. That's fair. Conflation implies intent. Whereas you are just confused.
  - afavour 2y ago
    > You're just confused. And you are being patronising. My point is that there’s no guarantee this tech explosion will continue. Your logic appears to be “it has, so it will, until it doesn’t”, which… okay? All of your comments so far feel like you’re disagreeing with me just because you feel like being argumentative rather than because you have something useful to say.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
  - samatman 2y ago
    It doesn't actually: > Conflation is the merging of two or more sets of information, texts, ideas, or opinions into one, often in error. It can be done as a rhetorical ploy, but that's not part of the definition, it can also simply be a mistake.

kylebenzle 2y ago

EXACTLY! It's like "AI" is here only because VC needed a next "thing." ChatBots are super cool and useful but they are not the AI being sold.

edanm 2y ago
AI is here because an AI product came out that millions of users found actually useful. The massive success of ChatGPT is what brought the current era of hype around AI - it's not anything VCs did.
Gud 2y ago
Chatbots sucks, I want a human.

randomdata 2y ago

> What if we _don't_ have one every 5-10 years? Then the observed trend will come to an end. Seems rather obvious, no?