4 ms·

> If the EU decides to join the US the war is over and Russia will keep the occupied lands. As a European, I'd say there is just about 0 chance of the EU unila

by diggan 2y ago

> If the EU decides to join the US the war is over and Russia will keep the occupied lands. As a European, I'd say there is just about 0 chance of the EU unilaterally supporting Russian taken any occupied areas to themselves and Ukraine surrendering. Not only would it signal to Russia that they can take European land without consequences, but public opinion is very much against any sort of cessation of defenses. In my ~30 years I've never seen as strong NATO support from the common man in countries like Sweden and Spain as there is today.

bananapub 2y ago
> As a European, I'd say there is just about 0 chance of the EU unilaterally supporting Russian taken any occupied areas to themselves I agree, but it's not about accepting or saying it's a good idea, it's about whether European countries can replace the US support enough that Ukraine can reasonably keep defending themselves.
- diggan 2y ago
  I don't know if EU would be able to match the current support the US gives to Ukraine (maybe it already does? Or maybe it exceeds? I don't know either way) but what I'm sure off is that Europe won't stop trying even if it wouldn't be enough.
  - sabbaticaldev 2y ago
    how sure are you? I think the economic struggles + losing US support would make every incumbent leader lose their jobs until UE is full of Trump supporters
    - diggan 2y ago
      Fairly confident, at least for the countries I frequent and have friends in. As an example, public opinion of NATO in Sweden was really negative up until ~2013 (Crimea occupation) where it kind of was equally positive/negative and then fast forward to today where it's at 64% positive. https://www.gu.se/en/news/opinion-on-nato-record-shift-between-2021-and-2022 https://www.gu.se/en/news/opinion-on-nato-record-shift-betwe... Being a Swede myself, and knowing how apathetic Swedish people are about basically anything, something having that large of support is pretty uncommon and signal a strong will to make NATO and EU defenses stronger, if anything. Even people I know who been historically anti-"anything military" in the country have quickly turned into "We need to defend our Nordic brothers and sisters against the Russians" which kind of took me by surprise. > UE is full of Trump supporters That won't ever happen. Even right-wingers (Europe right, not US right) are laughing at Trump and the Republicans.
      - henrikschroder 2y ago
        To be fair, we do have a couple of hundred years of history where Russia was always the big bad. Pretty much the only large-scale scenario the Swedish military trains and prepares for is a Russian invasion. The enemy always comes from the east.
      - aguaviva 2y ago
        Even right-wingers (Europe right, not US right) are laughing at Trump and the Republicans. Any examples you can point to?
  - adriand 2y ago
    If you add up all the aid from the US and compare it to aid from the EU plus European nations, I think the share of contributions is roughly equal. But if that’s right (and I did the math in my head while scrolling a huge spreadsheet on my phone), then the loss of support from the US is significant. The US ability to produce armaments is also unparalleled in the West, so a loss of that supply is also a huge issue. Then you have the loss of the US as a military backer which may free Putin to be more aggressive - dirty bombs, tactical nukes, blowing up a nuclear reactor, assassinating Ukrainian leadership, who knows what. It’s a huge problem for Ukraine if they lose the US. But will they? It’s hard to know for certain.
    - diggan 2y ago
      Thanks a lot for doing that, even thought kind of ad-hoc :) Some data for guesses is better than none! I'm guessing that if US pulls their support, EU will try to add as much to cover up for it as humanly possible, as most compatriots see Ukraine as the frontline of something that can grow much, much bigger which because of remembering history, we'd obviously like to avoid.
    - bluGill 2y ago
      Europe is great at producing armaments as well - but there are a lot of useful armaments that are only produced in the US. If you had to choose either EU or US support, the US is the better option as they can give you things that the EU cannot even though the EU has more people than the US and a good economy. The Patriot system is one the of best examples. EU doesn't really have anything in this space, but Ukraine needs more of it yesterday.
      - diggan 2y ago
        > The Patriot system is one the of best examples. EU doesn't really have anything in this space, but Ukraine needs more of it yesterday. Are you talking about SAM capabilities or something else? Because there are plenty of SAMs produced by European countries; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_surface-to-air_missiles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_surface-to-air_missile...
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
  > it's about whether European countries can replace the US support enough that Ukraine can reasonably keep defending themselves. Your economy is nearly 10 times the size of Russia. If Russia can continue, then you can almost 10 times more easily. It's not a "can" issue. It's a "are you willing to do more than absolute minimum?" issue.
thaklea 2y ago
[flagged]
- diggan 2y ago
  I know there are some countries where support is less than in other places (Germany being one, as you highlighted). I still stand by my original statement that unilateral decision in EU of stop supporting Ukraine and letting Russia keep the occupied territories.
  - rksbank 2y ago
    Support in Germany is the same as support in Ukraine itself (according to the above Gallup poll at least). Support in other European countries does not differ much from Germany: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/barely-10-per-cent-of-europeans-believe-ukraine-can-defeat-russia-poll https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/barely-10-per-...
    - diggan 2y ago
      > Support in other European countries does not differ much from Germany: Yes, it seems to differ in at least one place by a lot: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42193290 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42193290 I'm sure that's true for other places too.
- honzabe 2y ago
  > Public opinion is against further weapons shipments to Ukraine The linked article is about the opinion of Germans about shipments of German weapons. When you don't specify that in the context of this thread, which is about Europe, not Germany, people might mistakenly interpret that as data about Europe.
- sekai 2y ago
  Okay, now let's see polls for Poland, Finland, or UK.
- lpcvoid 2y ago

by diggan 2y ago

bananapub 2y ago

> As a European, I'd say there is just about 0 chance of the EU unilaterally supporting Russian taken any occupied areas to themselves I agree, but it's not about accepting or saying it's a good idea, it's about whether European countries can replace the US support enough that Ukraine can reasonably keep defending themselves.

diggan 2y ago
I don't know if EU would be able to match the current support the US gives to Ukraine (maybe it already does? Or maybe it exceeds? I don't know either way) but what I'm sure off is that Europe won't stop trying even if it wouldn't be enough.
- sabbaticaldev 2y ago
  how sure are you? I think the economic struggles + losing US support would make every incumbent leader lose their jobs until UE is full of Trump supporters
  - diggan 2y ago
    Fairly confident, at least for the countries I frequent and have friends in. As an example, public opinion of NATO in Sweden was really negative up until ~2013 (Crimea occupation) where it kind of was equally positive/negative and then fast forward to today where it's at 64% positive. https://www.gu.se/en/news/opinion-on-nato-record-shift-between-2021-and-2022 https://www.gu.se/en/news/opinion-on-nato-record-shift-betwe... Being a Swede myself, and knowing how apathetic Swedish people are about basically anything, something having that large of support is pretty uncommon and signal a strong will to make NATO and EU defenses stronger, if anything. Even people I know who been historically anti-"anything military" in the country have quickly turned into "We need to defend our Nordic brothers and sisters against the Russians" which kind of took me by surprise. > UE is full of Trump supporters That won't ever happen. Even right-wingers (Europe right, not US right) are laughing at Trump and the Republicans.
    - henrikschroder 2y ago
      To be fair, we do have a couple of hundred years of history where Russia was always the big bad. Pretty much the only large-scale scenario the Swedish military trains and prepares for is a Russian invasion. The enemy always comes from the east.
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      Even right-wingers (Europe right, not US right) are laughing at Trump and the Republicans. Any examples you can point to?
- adriand 2y ago
  If you add up all the aid from the US and compare it to aid from the EU plus European nations, I think the share of contributions is roughly equal. But if that’s right (and I did the math in my head while scrolling a huge spreadsheet on my phone), then the loss of support from the US is significant. The US ability to produce armaments is also unparalleled in the West, so a loss of that supply is also a huge issue. Then you have the loss of the US as a military backer which may free Putin to be more aggressive - dirty bombs, tactical nukes, blowing up a nuclear reactor, assassinating Ukrainian leadership, who knows what. It’s a huge problem for Ukraine if they lose the US. But will they? It’s hard to know for certain.
  - diggan 2y ago
    Thanks a lot for doing that, even thought kind of ad-hoc :) Some data for guesses is better than none! I'm guessing that if US pulls their support, EU will try to add as much to cover up for it as humanly possible, as most compatriots see Ukraine as the frontline of something that can grow much, much bigger which because of remembering history, we'd obviously like to avoid.
  - bluGill 2y ago
    Europe is great at producing armaments as well - but there are a lot of useful armaments that are only produced in the US. If you had to choose either EU or US support, the US is the better option as they can give you things that the EU cannot even though the EU has more people than the US and a good economy. The Patriot system is one the of best examples. EU doesn't really have anything in this space, but Ukraine needs more of it yesterday.
    - diggan 2y ago
      > The Patriot system is one the of best examples. EU doesn't really have anything in this space, but Ukraine needs more of it yesterday. Are you talking about SAM capabilities or something else? Because there are plenty of SAMs produced by European countries; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_surface-to-air_missiles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_surface-to-air_missile...
onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
> it's about whether European countries can replace the US support enough that Ukraine can reasonably keep defending themselves. Your economy is nearly 10 times the size of Russia. If Russia can continue, then you can almost 10 times more easily. It's not a "can" issue. It's a "are you willing to do more than absolute minimum?" issue.

thaklea 2y ago

[flagged]

diggan 2y ago
I know there are some countries where support is less than in other places (Germany being one, as you highlighted). I still stand by my original statement that unilateral decision in EU of stop supporting Ukraine and letting Russia keep the occupied territories.
- rksbank 2y ago
  Support in Germany is the same as support in Ukraine itself (according to the above Gallup poll at least). Support in other European countries does not differ much from Germany: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/barely-10-per-cent-of-europeans-believe-ukraine-can-defeat-russia-poll https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/barely-10-per-...
  - diggan 2y ago
    > Support in other European countries does not differ much from Germany: Yes, it seems to differ in at least one place by a lot: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42193290 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42193290 I'm sure that's true for other places too.
honzabe 2y ago
> Public opinion is against further weapons shipments to Ukraine The linked article is about the opinion of Germans about shipments of German weapons. When you don't specify that in the context of this thread, which is about Europe, not Germany, people might mistakenly interpret that as data about Europe.
sekai 2y ago
Okay, now let's see polls for Poland, Finland, or UK.
lpcvoid 2y ago