4 ms·

This sounds interesting, but I think the difference in the two situations is a repeatable experimental environment. In baseball every at bat is the same...a bat

by hooande 14y ago

This sounds interesting, but I think the difference in the two situations is a repeatable experimental environment. In baseball every at bat is the same...a batter, a pitcher and 8 defenders. This lends itself well to statistical analysis. In programming, every commit is different and under wildly varying circumstances. I think the same logic might apply to the OP. Looking at a startup investment through the lens of a credit score makes some sense, but it seems more likely to avoid predictable losses than it is to identify the next facebook or google. As an aside, there's something I've always wondered about companies who predict the success of other companies...what score did they get from their own algorithm?

stcredzero 14y ago
This sounds interesting, but I think the difference in the two situations is a repeatable experimental environment. In baseball every at bat is the same...a batter, a pitcher and 8 defenders. This lends itself well to statistical analysis. In programming, every commit is different and under wildly varying circumstances. You could argue this both ways. The situation at bat varies quite a bit. You can have different pitchers, different lighting, different wind speed and direction, different umpire, different situation on-base, etc... However, this all comes out in the wash because there are so many iterations. Programmers commit a lot. If you can get reliable data including bug rates for a given programming environment, I think you'd have good data.