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> Russia is not creeping westwards. This is a false generalization of their strategy in Ukraine, which is not to expand westwards, but merely to retain control

by mopsi 2y ago

> Russia is not creeping westwards. This is a false generalization of their strategy in Ukraine, which is not to expand westwards, but merely to retain control over periphery. This is not a generalization, but a fact. Four regions of Ukraine have been officially annexed into Russian Federation. These oblasts include major cities like Zaporizhzhia, population 700k, which Russia never even held during the war nor does control now. Russia is literally, in both physical and legal terms, pushing their border westwards using the kind of violence not seen in Europe since the WWII. > Shall I repeat the same argument about capabilities or you will just re-read my comment? Shall I repeat the publicly shared assessments of many European militaries that Russia would be ready to attack in 5 to 8 years after Ukrainian defeat?

ivan_gammel 2y ago
> This is not a generalization, but a fact. Generalization is to assume that they have any interest in going further based on this fact. > Shall I repeat the publicly shared assessments of many European militaries that Russia would be ready to attack in 5 to 8 years after Ukrainian defeat? Yes, sure. But please don’t confuse the potential with intent. Russia can occupy Baltics or cut through Poland to Kaliningrad, but they are well aware of NATO capabilities and won’t risk nuclear war for nothing. Those assessments in no way are saying that such attack is imminent, only that NATO needs good deterrence and being able to defend borders long enough until reinforcements arrive. That’s the main purpose — to ensure that the alliance still have a purpose and can deliver on it.
- mopsi 2y ago
  > Generalization is to assume that they have any interest in going further based on this fact. Russia is expanding itself westward by force and that's a fact. That it will stop at Ukraine is your speculation and not an observable fact, and it's not even a reasonable assumption given the history and current Russian rhetoric. By your own admission, Russia is prone to "huge miscalculations", which is exactly what its neighbors fear. > But please don’t confuse the potential with intent. Such semantic games are not very interesting. The only reason why anyone speaks about deterrence is because Russia needs to be deterred from invading its western neighbors. Russia is the sole purpose why the entire Northern Europe has militaries at all, why we spend billions each year trying to teach every young man survival and combat skills, still demand new apartment buildings to provide air raid shelters, fortify military facilities against nuclear blasts, and do many other things at a great cost.

by mopsi 2y ago

ivan_gammel 2y ago

> This is not a generalization, but a fact. Generalization is to assume that they have any interest in going further based on this fact. > Shall I repeat the publicly shared assessments of many European militaries that Russia would be ready to attack in 5 to 8 years after Ukrainian defeat? Yes, sure. But please don’t confuse the potential with intent. Russia can occupy Baltics or cut through Poland to Kaliningrad, but they are well aware of NATO capabilities and won’t risk nuclear war for nothing. Those assessments in no way are saying that such attack is imminent, only that NATO needs good deterrence and being able to defend borders long enough until reinforcements arrive. That’s the main purpose — to ensure that the alliance still have a purpose and can deliver on it.

mopsi 2y ago
> Generalization is to assume that they have any interest in going further based on this fact. Russia is expanding itself westward by force and that's a fact. That it will stop at Ukraine is your speculation and not an observable fact, and it's not even a reasonable assumption given the history and current Russian rhetoric. By your own admission, Russia is prone to "huge miscalculations", which is exactly what its neighbors fear. > But please don’t confuse the potential with intent. Such semantic games are not very interesting. The only reason why anyone speaks about deterrence is because Russia needs to be deterred from invading its western neighbors. Russia is the sole purpose why the entire Northern Europe has militaries at all, why we spend billions each year trying to teach every young man survival and combat skills, still demand new apartment buildings to provide air raid shelters, fortify military facilities against nuclear blasts, and do many other things at a great cost.