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Russia is not creeping westwards. The current invasion of Ukraine, plus open threats to the Baltics/Poland and random assassinations / acts of sabotage == "cre

Russia is not creeping westwards. The current invasion of Ukraine, plus open threats to the Baltics/Poland and random assassinations / acts of sabotage == "creeping westwards", is my take. But they are not idiots to start WW3. Right, but evidently its regime is stupid/irrational/petty/jealous enough to grab whatever leverage it think it can get away with, as long as it thinks it will fall just short of starting WW3. They did a huge miscalculation in Ukraine due to corruption in intelligence services, "Due to its the current president's authoritarian management style and relentlessly ideological worldview" would be a better description of the root cause of the current situation, in my view. The intelligence services were also corrupt, but this is the inevitable outcome of the circumstances just described. Not a key driving factor, in itself.

ivan_gammel 2y ago
> creeping westwards", is my take. Well, if that’s the take, it is very far from “Russia will attack NATO”. > Due to its the current president's authoritarian management style and relentlessly ideological worldview This is correct but irrelevant. He would not attack if he could anticipate the consequences. He will not attack NATO, exactly because he understands what’s going to happen next.
- aguaviva 2y ago
  Well, if that’s the take, it is very far from “Russia will attack NATO”. It probably won't, but the whole point is that the current regime is definitely gaslighting the West in regard to its intent (and so therefore it must be treated as a credible threat). And if NATO/EU starts to crumble a few years down (not likely, but if it does) that would raise the probability of some form attack quite substantially. The very fact that you and I are having a cold, sober discussion about what was once (at least from 1989-2014) more or less unthinkable -- in itself amounts to a form of westward "creep". This is correct but irrelevant. He would not attack if he could anticipate the consequences. Again I disagree, because I think his main blinders were primarily ideological / egotistical (and the simple fact that anyone with a differing opinion or assessment was probably too terrified to tell him so), and not the result of simply being fed bad information. Recall that many of Putin's spiritual compatriots in the West -- both those who concocted all the supposed "reasons" for the 2003 Iraq invasion; and the vastly greater number who passively went along with the obvious, plain-as-day insanity because it seemed "the thing to do", I guess -- also tried to claim afterwards that they were "misled" by faulty intelligence. My own take is that, if one is taken under the spell of such sophistry and nonsense -- ultimately, it happens through one's own volition.
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    > And if NATO/EU starts to crumble a few years down (not likely, but if it does) that would raise the probability of some form attack quite substantially. This is a speculation that leads to even more speculative possibilities. Quite a big distance from alarmist comments „if Ukraine falls they will come to us“. Definitely a topic for NATO analysts, but for us mostly science fiction. Why aren’t we talking about more probable scenarios? > My own take is that, if one is taken under the spell of such sophistry and nonsense -- ultimately, it happens through one's own volition. Fully agree on that, yet this is not explaining why would Putin attack NATO.

ivan_gammel 2y ago

> creeping westwards", is my take. Well, if that’s the take, it is very far from “Russia will attack NATO”. > Due to its the current president's authoritarian management style and relentlessly ideological worldview This is correct but irrelevant. He would not attack if he could anticipate the consequences. He will not attack NATO, exactly because he understands what’s going to happen next.

aguaviva 2y ago
Well, if that’s the take, it is very far from “Russia will attack NATO”. It probably won't, but the whole point is that the current regime is definitely gaslighting the West in regard to its intent (and so therefore it must be treated as a credible threat). And if NATO/EU starts to crumble a few years down (not likely, but if it does) that would raise the probability of some form attack quite substantially. The very fact that you and I are having a cold, sober discussion about what was once (at least from 1989-2014) more or less unthinkable -- in itself amounts to a form of westward "creep". This is correct but irrelevant. He would not attack if he could anticipate the consequences. Again I disagree, because I think his main blinders were primarily ideological / egotistical (and the simple fact that anyone with a differing opinion or assessment was probably too terrified to tell him so), and not the result of simply being fed bad information. Recall that many of Putin's spiritual compatriots in the West -- both those who concocted all the supposed "reasons" for the 2003 Iraq invasion; and the vastly greater number who passively went along with the obvious, plain-as-day insanity because it seemed "the thing to do", I guess -- also tried to claim afterwards that they were "misled" by faulty intelligence. My own take is that, if one is taken under the spell of such sophistry and nonsense -- ultimately, it happens through one's own volition.
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  > And if NATO/EU starts to crumble a few years down (not likely, but if it does) that would raise the probability of some form attack quite substantially. This is a speculation that leads to even more speculative possibilities. Quite a big distance from alarmist comments „if Ukraine falls they will come to us“. Definitely a topic for NATO analysts, but for us mostly science fiction. Why aren’t we talking about more probable scenarios? > My own take is that, if one is taken under the spell of such sophistry and nonsense -- ultimately, it happens through one's own volition. Fully agree on that, yet this is not explaining why would Putin attack NATO.