3 ms·
> we don't relitigate everything all the time. E.g. is germ theory a "dogmatic truth" for you? Sure. Germ theory is incomplete. This became obvious during COVI
by mike_hearn 2y ago
> we don't relitigate everything all the time. E.g. is germ theory a "dogmatic truth" for you?
Sure. Germ theory is incomplete. This became obvious during COVID, but the incomplete version of it was indeed taken as dogma. Things ordinary germ theory does not successfully explain:
1. Why did SARS-CoV-2 variants immediately exterminate each other instead of coexisting side by side for the long term? And why did flu apparently disappear during COVID?
2. How did around 80% of people appear to have pre-existing immunity to a supposedly novel coronavirus, as measured by household transmission studies?
3. Why is it possible for people on isolated Antarctic bases to spontaneously get sick from a cold, when there is nobody to get sick from?
4. Why are respiratory viruses seasonal to the extent that influenza outbreaks start everywhere at once rather than spreading from an index case like COVID did (there are lots of ad-hoc folk explanations for this kicking around, none of which are obviously derived from germ theory).
5. If germ theory is correct, why do epidemiological models that implement it never correctly predict the course of epidemics? (and they don't, even though epidemiologists like to pretend they do).
What we're looking at here is likely to be similar to physics pre-Einstein. We have a theory, it sometimes yields very accurate predictions, and we have lots of evidence for it. But there are cases that it fails for. The theory must therefore need refinement. Non-dogmatic scientists would be intrigued by this and even excited to explore it, but if you look at the public health literature you don't see this kind of excitement. Instead you see lots of papers that ignore all the questions above and just sort of assert that the theory side is done, so here's our predictions Mr Health Minister.
- tzs 2y agoHow does ordinary germ theory not explain what happened with flu during the pandemic? The measures people took to reduce the spread of COVID would also reduce the spread of flu, and because flu is less infectious and infected people do not spread at for as many days those measures would be even more effective against flu. If the flu season without COVID would have just been an average flu season instead of some particular infectious strain then it would not be hard for the measures taken for COVID to push the effective R value for the flu that year to under 1, which would mean it would not spread.
- mike_hearn 2y agoThat's the explanation public health departments like but it's inconsistent with the data. Much more likely to be the same phenomenon that caused other variants to disappear as well.
- Izkata 2y ago> And why did flu apparently disappear during COVID? Because they stopped tracking it to give resources to tracking SARS-CoV-2, nothing more. The CDC had a note at the bottom of their site explaining why their graphs flatlined, and despite it people used those graphs as evidence it really did disappear.
- mike_hearn 2y agoIt disappeared also in countries that continued doing routine flu surveillance.
- DiogenesKynikos 2y agoIt disappeared because of social distancing. Influenza is less transmissible than SARS-CoV-2, so the measures used to keep SARS-CoV-2 under control were even more effective at shutting down transmission of the flu.