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We already live in a reality where Russia keeps creeping westwards with aggressions that grow larger on every turn. Why should Russia stop if you validate their

• ivan_gammel 2y ago
  > We already live in a reality where Russia keeps creeping westwards with aggressions that grow larger on every turn Russia is not creeping westwards. This is a false generalization of their strategy in Ukraine, which is not to expand westwards, but merely to retain control over periphery. They did a huge miscalculation in Ukraine due to corruption in intelligence services, but they are not idiots to start WW3. > Why should Russia stop if you validate their strategy? Makes no sense whatsoever. Shall I repeat the same argument about capabilities or you will just re-read my comment?
  • aguaviva 2y ago
    Russia is not creeping westwards. The current invasion of Ukraine, plus open threats to the Baltics/Poland and random assassinations / acts of sabotage == "creeping westwards", is my take. But they are not idiots to start WW3. Right, but evidently its regime is stupid/irrational/petty/jealous enough to grab whatever leverage it think it can get away with, as long as it thinks it will fall just short of starting WW3. They did a huge miscalculation in Ukraine due to corruption in intelligence services, "Due to its the current president's authoritarian management style and relentlessly ideological worldview" would be a better description of the root cause of the current situation, in my view. The intelligence services were also corrupt, but this is the inevitable outcome of the circumstances just described. Not a key driving factor, in itself.
    • ivan_gammel 2y ago
      > creeping westwards", is my take. Well, if that’s the take, it is very far from “Russia will attack NATO”. > Due to its the current president's authoritarian management style and relentlessly ideological worldview This is correct but irrelevant. He would not attack if he could anticipate the consequences. He will not attack NATO, exactly because he understands what’s going to happen next.
      • aguaviva 2y ago
        Well, if that’s the take, it is very far from “Russia will attack NATO”. It probably won't, but the whole point is that the current regime is definitely gaslighting the West in regard to its intent (and so therefore it must be treated as a credible threat). And if NATO/EU starts to crumble a few years down (not likely, but if it does) that would raise the probability of some form attack quite substantially. The very fact that you and I are having a cold, sober discussion about what was once (at least from 1989-2014) more or less unthinkable -- in itself amounts to a form of westward "creep". This is correct but irrelevant. He would not attack if he could anticipate the consequences. Again I disagree, because I think his main blinders were primarily ideological / egotistical (and the simple fact that anyone with a differing opinion or assessment was probably too terrified to tell him so), and not the result of simply being fed bad information. Recall that many of Putin's spiritual compatriots in the West -- both those who concocted all the supposed "reasons" for the 2003 Iraq invasion; and the vastly greater number who passively went along with the obvious, plain-as-day insanity because it seemed "the thing to do", I guess -- also tried to claim afterwards that they were "misled" by faulty intelligence. My own take is that, if one is taken under the spell of such sophistry and nonsense -- ultimately, it happens through one's own volition.
        • ivan_gammel 2y ago
          > And if NATO/EU starts to crumble a few years down (not likely, but if it does) that would raise the probability of some form attack quite substantially. This is a speculation that leads to even more speculative possibilities. Quite a big distance from alarmist comments „if Ukraine falls they will come to us“. Definitely a topic for NATO analysts, but for us mostly science fiction. Why aren’t we talking about more probable scenarios? > My own take is that, if one is taken under the spell of such sophistry and nonsense -- ultimately, it happens through one's own volition. Fully agree on that, yet this is not explaining why would Putin attack NATO.
  • mopsi 2y ago
    > Russia is not creeping westwards. This is a false generalization of their strategy in Ukraine, which is not to expand westwards, but merely to retain control over periphery. This is not a generalization, but a fact. Four regions of Ukraine have been officially annexed into Russian Federation. These oblasts include major cities like Zaporizhzhia, population 700k, which Russia never even held during the war nor does control now. Russia is literally, in both physical and legal terms, pushing their border westwards using the kind of violence not seen in Europe since the WWII. > Shall I repeat the same argument about capabilities or you will just re-read my comment? Shall I repeat the publicly shared assessments of many European militaries that Russia would be ready to attack in 5 to 8 years after Ukrainian defeat?
    • ivan_gammel 2y ago
      > This is not a generalization, but a fact. Generalization is to assume that they have any interest in going further based on this fact. > Shall I repeat the publicly shared assessments of many European militaries that Russia would be ready to attack in 5 to 8 years after Ukrainian defeat? Yes, sure. But please don’t confuse the potential with intent. Russia can occupy Baltics or cut through Poland to Kaliningrad, but they are well aware of NATO capabilities and won’t risk nuclear war for nothing. Those assessments in no way are saying that such attack is imminent, only that NATO needs good deterrence and being able to defend borders long enough until reinforcements arrive. That’s the main purpose — to ensure that the alliance still have a purpose and can deliver on it.
      • mopsi 2y ago
        > Generalization is to assume that they have any interest in going further based on this fact. Russia is expanding itself westward by force and that's a fact. That it will stop at Ukraine is your speculation and not an observable fact, and it's not even a reasonable assumption given the history and current Russian rhetoric. By your own admission, Russia is prone to "huge miscalculations", which is exactly what its neighbors fear. > But please don’t confuse the potential with intent. Such semantic games are not very interesting. The only reason why anyone speaks about deterrence is because Russia needs to be deterred from invading its western neighbors. Russia is the sole purpose why the entire Northern Europe has militaries at all, why we spend billions each year trying to teach every young man survival and combat skills, still demand new apartment buildings to provide air raid shelters, fortify military facilities against nuclear blasts, and do many other things at a great cost.