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I have been to Russia recently. It is nowhere close to the collapse of the state. The brain drain was high, but its still 140-something millions of people there

I have been to Russia recently. It is nowhere close to the collapse of the state. The brain drain was high, but its still 140-something millions of people there. Quality of food is so-so, but entrepreneurial energy and resilience is very high. There will be a post-war economic crisis due to a massive drop in government spending (which may be deferred due to the need of reconstruction of annexed territories), but businesses are preparing for it and gambling on the timing. Russia will certainly survive and this war is not the end of it, its fate will be sealed by the internal politics.

lostmsu 2y ago
I left in 2012 and already back then it was a slowly collapsing state. Since 2012 its IT giants collapsed, and space industry was overtaken by SpaceX. The former you could already predict in 2012 as a techie seeing the initial grip on the Internet, the later was still unthinkable. Now a decade of progress in non-carbohydrates development might destroy its only income source. In 10-15 years the education will falter because of the today's brain drain, and with the next generation it will turn into complete irrelevancy not unlike the North Korea. Entrepreneurial energy and resilience are useless without brains. Stupid people can be very excited and determined to make an app where you can type in the parking lot number to remember where to find your car later.
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  > Since 2012 its IT giants collapsed You are talking about different Russia then. Yandex, VK, Sber, Wilderries have firm grip over Russian digital economy and apparently heavily investing in new technology, including AI. Thanks to sanctions they have to worry even less about competition (AliExpress and Chinese electronics are notable exceptions). Banks and telecoms are doing well too. > In 10-15 years the education will falter because of the today's brain drain I don’t see it. The education system on average is degrading quickly, but it’s the inequality rising, not loss of capabilities. Top tier schools remain very competitive globally — better than e.g. in most of Europe including Germany. Top tier universities remain very competitive in STEM. This is not path to irrelevance, but rather to a specialization.
  - lostmsu 2y ago
    > grip over Russian digital economy It is essentially forced use, on the large scale they are getting farther and farther behind. > investing in new technology, including AI If it was still 2010 I could see Yandex having a model somewhere near the top of https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard but today I'd be surprised if they can compete at all. > Top tier universities remain very competitive in STEM. This is not path to irrelevance, but rather to a specialization. I was talking about 10-15 years from now. When the old profs have to retire, who will teach if the majority of students are gone abroad? Of my MSU CS class basically everyone left, definitely the ones who could teach. And that was waaay before 2022 happened.
    - ivan_gammel 2y ago
      >It is essentially forced use, on the large scale they are getting farther and farther behind. You were just saying they collapsed, now they are simply falling behind. Care to elaborate? Any evidence? Yes, they achieved what their Western counterparts only dream of - unchecked market dominance.
      - lostmsu 2y ago
        > You were just saying they collapsed, now they are simply falling behind Lol, they did collapse, to the boundaries of Russia. Yandex was worldwide, VK had ambition getting there. > Yes, they achieved what their Western counterparts only dream of - unchecked market dominance. Aha-ha-ha-ha-ha. This is so laughable. You made me cry almost. Tell that to Apple. Or NVidia. Or Amazon. Or Google. I feel like if you are not a bot, you are in some kind of dream or delusion world. Would these obvious counterexamples even move your position?

lostmsu 2y ago

I left in 2012 and already back then it was a slowly collapsing state. Since 2012 its IT giants collapsed, and space industry was overtaken by SpaceX. The former you could already predict in 2012 as a techie seeing the initial grip on the Internet, the later was still unthinkable. Now a decade of progress in non-carbohydrates development might destroy its only income source. In 10-15 years the education will falter because of the today's brain drain, and with the next generation it will turn into complete irrelevancy not unlike the North Korea. Entrepreneurial energy and resilience are useless without brains. Stupid people can be very excited and determined to make an app where you can type in the parking lot number to remember where to find your car later.

ivan_gammel 2y ago
> Since 2012 its IT giants collapsed You are talking about different Russia then. Yandex, VK, Sber, Wilderries have firm grip over Russian digital economy and apparently heavily investing in new technology, including AI. Thanks to sanctions they have to worry even less about competition (AliExpress and Chinese electronics are notable exceptions). Banks and telecoms are doing well too. > In 10-15 years the education will falter because of the today's brain drain I don’t see it. The education system on average is degrading quickly, but it’s the inequality rising, not loss of capabilities. Top tier schools remain very competitive globally — better than e.g. in most of Europe including Germany. Top tier universities remain very competitive in STEM. This is not path to irrelevance, but rather to a specialization.
- lostmsu 2y ago
  > grip over Russian digital economy It is essentially forced use, on the large scale they are getting farther and farther behind. > investing in new technology, including AI If it was still 2010 I could see Yandex having a model somewhere near the top of https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard but today I'd be surprised if they can compete at all. > Top tier universities remain very competitive in STEM. This is not path to irrelevance, but rather to a specialization. I was talking about 10-15 years from now. When the old profs have to retire, who will teach if the majority of students are gone abroad? Of my MSU CS class basically everyone left, definitely the ones who could teach. And that was waaay before 2022 happened.
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    >It is essentially forced use, on the large scale they are getting farther and farther behind. You were just saying they collapsed, now they are simply falling behind. Care to elaborate? Any evidence? Yes, they achieved what their Western counterparts only dream of - unchecked market dominance.
    - lostmsu 2y ago
      > You were just saying they collapsed, now they are simply falling behind Lol, they did collapse, to the boundaries of Russia. Yandex was worldwide, VK had ambition getting there. > Yes, they achieved what their Western counterparts only dream of - unchecked market dominance. Aha-ha-ha-ha-ha. This is so laughable. You made me cry almost. Tell that to Apple. Or NVidia. Or Amazon. Or Google. I feel like if you are not a bot, you are in some kind of dream or delusion world. Would these obvious counterexamples even move your position?