3 ms·

We come from very many years of analysis spent on the case, especially in the past three years. They do not draw the picture with that brush or detail. I sugge

by mdp2021 2y ago

We come from very many years of analysis spent on the case, especially in the past three years. They do not draw the picture with that brush or detail. I suggest you elect a few important commentators and check their writings. You should make an idea of the motivations that brought to action, and read the future possibilities in view of the motivations (still playing actively in the game) and the current results on all sides, including the military, the political and the geopolitical.

lostmsu 2y ago
[flagged]
- mdp2021 2y ago
  > sheer amount of stupidity you just listed Care to explain? You do not seem to have got the point of my post, which suggests you may have also have greatly misunderstood the content. > called sunken cost fallacy So you seem to believe that the "existential concerns" that were identified as the motives behind the action are now retracted. But your guess clashes with that of specialists, so (also since that) your assertions cannot suffice. Edit: Incidentally, <curses>, in view of your «does not want to look extremely stupid», how do you read my «political [results and factors]»?
  - lostmsu 2y ago
    No, I call it sunken cost exactly because the "existential concerns", if they even made any sense before, now make none. Because the current situation is 10x if not 100x worse existential risk to Russia as a state vs whatever was before 2022. Because the war will eventually be lost, and with the loss of the occupied territories some internal territories might be lost as well, or the whole thing might fall apart even. Might not happen right away, but with 100k+ killed and many more wounded + the brain drain of probably even larger number of highly educated people + all the secondary effects of these two will definitely do that. And the longer this stupidity lasts, and the more losses are accumulated, the higher grow the chances of the total collapse of the state. At this point, it already looks worse than USSR in late 198x. UPD. looking into history, Russia basically fell flat on its face in what would be USSR's "Prague Spring" moment when Kiev kicked out their puppet, now you could say events rush toward the new 90s, except instead of being a superpower Russia looks pathetic, especially considering involvement of low-lifes, e.g. North Korea.
    - ivan_gammel 2y ago
      I have been to Russia recently. It is nowhere close to the collapse of the state. The brain drain was high, but its still 140-something millions of people there. Quality of food is so-so, but entrepreneurial energy and resilience is very high. There will be a post-war economic crisis due to a massive drop in government spending (which may be deferred due to the need of reconstruction of annexed territories), but businesses are preparing for it and gambling on the timing. Russia will certainly survive and this war is not the end of it, its fate will be sealed by the internal politics.
      - lostmsu 2y ago
        I left in 2012 and already back then it was a slowly collapsing state. Since 2012 its IT giants collapsed, and space industry was overtaken by SpaceX. The former you could already predict in 2012 as a techie seeing the initial grip on the Internet, the later was still unthinkable. Now a decade of progress in non-carbohydrates development might destroy its only income source. In 10-15 years the education will falter because of the today's brain drain, and with the next generation it will turn into complete irrelevancy not unlike the North Korea. Entrepreneurial energy and resilience are useless without brains. Stupid people can be very excited and determined to make an app where you can type in the parking lot number to remember where to find your car later.
        ivan_gammel 2y ago
        > Since 2012 its IT giants collapsed You are talking about different Russia then. Yandex, VK, Sber, Wilderries have firm grip over Russian digital economy and apparently heavily investing in new technology, including AI. Thanks to sanctions they have to worry even less about competition (AliExpress and Chinese electronics are notable exceptions). Banks and telecoms are doing well too. > In 10-15 years the education will falter because of the today's brain drain I don’t see it. The education system on average is degrading quickly, but it’s the inequality rising, not loss of capabilities. Top tier schools remain very competitive globally — better than e.g. in most of Europe including Germany. Top tier universities remain very competitive in STEM. This is not path to irrelevance, but rather to a specialization.
pixxel 2y ago
Nah, it’s because Putin is “stupid or whatnot”.

lostmsu 2y ago

[flagged]

mdp2021 2y ago
> sheer amount of stupidity you just listed Care to explain? You do not seem to have got the point of my post, which suggests you may have also have greatly misunderstood the content. > called sunken cost fallacy So you seem to believe that the "existential concerns" that were identified as the motives behind the action are now retracted. But your guess clashes with that of specialists, so (also since that) your assertions cannot suffice. Edit: Incidentally, <curses>, in view of your «does not want to look extremely stupid», how do you read my «political [results and factors]»?
- lostmsu 2y ago
  No, I call it sunken cost exactly because the "existential concerns", if they even made any sense before, now make none. Because the current situation is 10x if not 100x worse existential risk to Russia as a state vs whatever was before 2022. Because the war will eventually be lost, and with the loss of the occupied territories some internal territories might be lost as well, or the whole thing might fall apart even. Might not happen right away, but with 100k+ killed and many more wounded + the brain drain of probably even larger number of highly educated people + all the secondary effects of these two will definitely do that. And the longer this stupidity lasts, and the more losses are accumulated, the higher grow the chances of the total collapse of the state. At this point, it already looks worse than USSR in late 198x. UPD. looking into history, Russia basically fell flat on its face in what would be USSR's "Prague Spring" moment when Kiev kicked out their puppet, now you could say events rush toward the new 90s, except instead of being a superpower Russia looks pathetic, especially considering involvement of low-lifes, e.g. North Korea.
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    I have been to Russia recently. It is nowhere close to the collapse of the state. The brain drain was high, but its still 140-something millions of people there. Quality of food is so-so, but entrepreneurial energy and resilience is very high. There will be a post-war economic crisis due to a massive drop in government spending (which may be deferred due to the need of reconstruction of annexed territories), but businesses are preparing for it and gambling on the timing. Russia will certainly survive and this war is not the end of it, its fate will be sealed by the internal politics.
    - lostmsu 2y ago
      I left in 2012 and already back then it was a slowly collapsing state. Since 2012 its IT giants collapsed, and space industry was overtaken by SpaceX. The former you could already predict in 2012 as a techie seeing the initial grip on the Internet, the later was still unthinkable. Now a decade of progress in non-carbohydrates development might destroy its only income source. In 10-15 years the education will falter because of the today's brain drain, and with the next generation it will turn into complete irrelevancy not unlike the North Korea. Entrepreneurial energy and resilience are useless without brains. Stupid people can be very excited and determined to make an app where you can type in the parking lot number to remember where to find your car later.
      - ivan_gammel 2y ago
        > Since 2012 its IT giants collapsed You are talking about different Russia then. Yandex, VK, Sber, Wilderries have firm grip over Russian digital economy and apparently heavily investing in new technology, including AI. Thanks to sanctions they have to worry even less about competition (AliExpress and Chinese electronics are notable exceptions). Banks and telecoms are doing well too. > In 10-15 years the education will falter because of the today's brain drain I don’t see it. The education system on average is degrading quickly, but it’s the inequality rising, not loss of capabilities. Top tier schools remain very competitive globally — better than e.g. in most of Europe including Germany. Top tier universities remain very competitive in STEM. This is not path to irrelevance, but rather to a specialization.

pixxel 2y ago

Nah, it’s because Putin is “stupid or whatnot”.