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How many casualties per month will the peace you are advocating bring? The parts of Ukraine that have fallen under Russian control have seen almost their entire

by mopsi 2y ago

How many casualties per month will the peace you are advocating bring? The parts of Ukraine that have fallen under Russian control have seen almost their entire male population wiped out by forcible conscription for fighting against Ukraine. Should Ukraine fall in its entirety, I have little doubt Russia will decimate the population of currently free parts of Ukraine by using them as cannon fodder in further attacks westwards against Poland.

ivan_gammel 2y ago
The idea about further attacks to the West has no basis in history or reality. There’s zero indication that this may happen: it’s far beyond current Russian capabilities, just like NATO does not have capabilities to start and win an offensive war against Russia. Both threats are no more than convenient lies for either party. Ukraine is not going to fall in its entirety if there will be peace talks recognizing situation on the ground, but I bet you haven’t seen the map of Europe if you think Ukraine is standing between Russia and NATO. If Russia wanted to attack, there’s much more convenient and more strategically important route via Belarus (Russian ally) and Baltics. So no, Ukraine is not fighting for us. They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014. It’s not bad, they have the right and they deserve it, but it’s a very different narrative. Yes, a few people on annexed regions are going to suffer, that will be mostly active political opposition. How many of them will die? You can check statistics on Russian political prisoners. If the peace treaty is signed, there will be no more cannon fodder on either side. Prisoners? Yes. Not a lot.
- yladiz 2y ago
  > They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014. What are you talking about?
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    Please disregard “ethnic”, that was not correct to say, Ukrainian nationalism is not ethnicity-based. What I meant is that prior to the events of 2014 which changed the balance, there was major political division between east and west of Ukraine, and pro-Russian parties controlled the government in 2010-2014. The pro-Western faction won, pro-Russian factions continued to have some support until 2022. Current vision is pro-NATO, pro-EU and rejects neutrality, non-alignment or pro-Russian alignment, but that’s basically it. I’m not sure if typical Ukrainian voter does fully understand the implications of such choices (especially given that prospects of joining either bloc are rather distant).
- mopsi 2y ago
  We already live in a reality where Russia keeps creeping westwards with aggressions that grow larger on every turn. Why should Russia stop if you validate their strategy? Makes no sense whatsoever. Attack through Belarus against Poland and the Baltics is indeed the most likely scenario after Ukraine should fall. Most military leaders in Eastern Europe forecast that the recovery period will be between 5 to 8 years, pessimistic estimations go as low as 2 years. After that, hundreds of thousands of forcibly conscripted Ukrainians will die between NATO forces in Europe and Russian barrier troops forcing them westwards, just like God knows how many thousands of people from Eastern Ukraine have already fallen in a forced fight against their compatriots. Russians do not offer Ukrainians peace, but a chance to be in the next pool of cannon fodder. Depriving Russians of this pool of conscripts is a vital European security interest, which aligns well with Ukrainians' desire to be free and not live under Russian boot again.
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    > We already live in a reality where Russia keeps creeping westwards with aggressions that grow larger on every turn Russia is not creeping westwards. This is a false generalization of their strategy in Ukraine, which is not to expand westwards, but merely to retain control over periphery. They did a huge miscalculation in Ukraine due to corruption in intelligence services, but they are not idiots to start WW3. > Why should Russia stop if you validate their strategy? Makes no sense whatsoever. Shall I repeat the same argument about capabilities or you will just re-read my comment?
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      Russia is not creeping westwards. The current invasion of Ukraine, plus open threats to the Baltics/Poland and random assassinations / acts of sabotage == "creeping westwards", is my take. But they are not idiots to start WW3. Right, but evidently its regime is stupid/irrational/petty/jealous enough to grab whatever leverage it think it can get away with, as long as it thinks it will fall just short of starting WW3. They did a huge miscalculation in Ukraine due to corruption in intelligence services, "Due to its the current president's authoritarian management style and relentlessly ideological worldview" would be a better description of the root cause of the current situation, in my view. The intelligence services were also corrupt, but this is the inevitable outcome of the circumstances just described. Not a key driving factor, in itself.
- aguaviva 2y ago
  It’s far beyond current Russian capabilities, just like NATO does not have capabilities to start and win an offensive war against Russia. The 2022 invasion was also far beyond Russia's capabilities, yet its regime took that action anyway. Based on its recent behavior -- there's no reason to believe that the current regime in Moscow will in general act rationally. And every reason to believe it will not. They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014. You are greatly mistaken in this assessment. Talk to any Ukrainian. They may have different opinions about the 2019 Language Law for example. But none of that stuff has anything to do with the current war, or why they are fighting. The just want their perpetual occupier to leave, and to leave them alone, once and for all. It's really extremely, extremely simple.
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    > The 2022 invasion was also far beyond Russia's capabilities, yet its regime took that action anyway. That decision was based on bad intelligence. Not comparable to situation with NATO which is well-studied by Russian analysts. > The just want their perpetual occupier to leave If that was that simple they could implement Russian vision of Minsk agreements or accept non-alignment and the war would stop. But they are fighting for freedom of choosing a specific vision for their country. And that’s a different narrative.
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      If that was that simple they could implement Russian vision of Minsk agreements or accept non-alignment and the war would stop. Alas, that seems very doubtful. By all indications, Putin is going to demand not just non-alignment, but permanent cessation of sovereignty on the territories he's currently sitting on.
- KaiserPro 2y ago
  > Yes, a few people on annexed regions are going to suffer, Armenia, gerogia, moldova, crimea Who is next, latvia?

by mopsi 2y ago

ivan_gammel 2y ago

The idea about further attacks to the West has no basis in history or reality. There’s zero indication that this may happen: it’s far beyond current Russian capabilities, just like NATO does not have capabilities to start and win an offensive war against Russia. Both threats are no more than convenient lies for either party. Ukraine is not going to fall in its entirety if there will be peace talks recognizing situation on the ground, but I bet you haven’t seen the map of Europe if you think Ukraine is standing between Russia and NATO. If Russia wanted to attack, there’s much more convenient and more strategically important route via Belarus (Russian ally) and Baltics. So no, Ukraine is not fighting for us. They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014. It’s not bad, they have the right and they deserve it, but it’s a very different narrative. Yes, a few people on annexed regions are going to suffer, that will be mostly active political opposition. How many of them will die? You can check statistics on Russian political prisoners. If the peace treaty is signed, there will be no more cannon fodder on either side. Prisoners? Yes. Not a lot.

yladiz 2y ago
> They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014. What are you talking about?
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  Please disregard “ethnic”, that was not correct to say, Ukrainian nationalism is not ethnicity-based. What I meant is that prior to the events of 2014 which changed the balance, there was major political division between east and west of Ukraine, and pro-Russian parties controlled the government in 2010-2014. The pro-Western faction won, pro-Russian factions continued to have some support until 2022. Current vision is pro-NATO, pro-EU and rejects neutrality, non-alignment or pro-Russian alignment, but that’s basically it. I’m not sure if typical Ukrainian voter does fully understand the implications of such choices (especially given that prospects of joining either bloc are rather distant).
mopsi 2y ago
We already live in a reality where Russia keeps creeping westwards with aggressions that grow larger on every turn. Why should Russia stop if you validate their strategy? Makes no sense whatsoever. Attack through Belarus against Poland and the Baltics is indeed the most likely scenario after Ukraine should fall. Most military leaders in Eastern Europe forecast that the recovery period will be between 5 to 8 years, pessimistic estimations go as low as 2 years. After that, hundreds of thousands of forcibly conscripted Ukrainians will die between NATO forces in Europe and Russian barrier troops forcing them westwards, just like God knows how many thousands of people from Eastern Ukraine have already fallen in a forced fight against their compatriots. Russians do not offer Ukrainians peace, but a chance to be in the next pool of cannon fodder. Depriving Russians of this pool of conscripts is a vital European security interest, which aligns well with Ukrainians' desire to be free and not live under Russian boot again.
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  > We already live in a reality where Russia keeps creeping westwards with aggressions that grow larger on every turn Russia is not creeping westwards. This is a false generalization of their strategy in Ukraine, which is not to expand westwards, but merely to retain control over periphery. They did a huge miscalculation in Ukraine due to corruption in intelligence services, but they are not idiots to start WW3. > Why should Russia stop if you validate their strategy? Makes no sense whatsoever. Shall I repeat the same argument about capabilities or you will just re-read my comment?
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    Russia is not creeping westwards. The current invasion of Ukraine, plus open threats to the Baltics/Poland and random assassinations / acts of sabotage == "creeping westwards", is my take. But they are not idiots to start WW3. Right, but evidently its regime is stupid/irrational/petty/jealous enough to grab whatever leverage it think it can get away with, as long as it thinks it will fall just short of starting WW3. They did a huge miscalculation in Ukraine due to corruption in intelligence services, "Due to its the current president's authoritarian management style and relentlessly ideological worldview" would be a better description of the root cause of the current situation, in my view. The intelligence services were also corrupt, but this is the inevitable outcome of the circumstances just described. Not a key driving factor, in itself.
aguaviva 2y ago
It’s far beyond current Russian capabilities, just like NATO does not have capabilities to start and win an offensive war against Russia. The 2022 invasion was also far beyond Russia's capabilities, yet its regime took that action anyway. Based on its recent behavior -- there's no reason to believe that the current regime in Moscow will in general act rationally. And every reason to believe it will not. They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014. You are greatly mistaken in this assessment. Talk to any Ukrainian. They may have different opinions about the 2019 Language Law for example. But none of that stuff has anything to do with the current war, or why they are fighting. The just want their perpetual occupier to leave, and to leave them alone, once and for all. It's really extremely, extremely simple.
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  > The 2022 invasion was also far beyond Russia's capabilities, yet its regime took that action anyway. That decision was based on bad intelligence. Not comparable to situation with NATO which is well-studied by Russian analysts. > The just want their perpetual occupier to leave If that was that simple they could implement Russian vision of Minsk agreements or accept non-alignment and the war would stop. But they are fighting for freedom of choosing a specific vision for their country. And that’s a different narrative.
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    If that was that simple they could implement Russian vision of Minsk agreements or accept non-alignment and the war would stop. Alas, that seems very doubtful. By all indications, Putin is going to demand not just non-alignment, but permanent cessation of sovereignty on the territories he's currently sitting on.
KaiserPro 2y ago
> Yes, a few people on annexed regions are going to suffer, Armenia, gerogia, moldova, crimea Who is next, latvia?