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This argument is nonsensical whataboutism. My country is Germany and it is part of NATO, just like Poland which Russia will need to cross. We have Article 5, bu

This argument is nonsensical whataboutism. My country is Germany and it is part of NATO, just like Poland which Russia will need to cross. We have Article 5, but Ukraine does not enjoy similar protection. NATO can probably defend itself. There’s no reason to think that Ukraine can do it for a long time at the moment. They are already overpowered and slowly losing positions. Every month of war results in tens of thousands of casualties on both sides. Hoping for the miracle will just defer the inevitable.

mopsi 2y ago
How many casualties per month will the peace you are advocating bring? The parts of Ukraine that have fallen under Russian control have seen almost their entire male population wiped out by forcible conscription for fighting against Ukraine. Should Ukraine fall in its entirety, I have little doubt Russia will decimate the population of currently free parts of Ukraine by using them as cannon fodder in further attacks westwards against Poland.
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  The idea about further attacks to the West has no basis in history or reality. There’s zero indication that this may happen: it’s far beyond current Russian capabilities, just like NATO does not have capabilities to start and win an offensive war against Russia. Both threats are no more than convenient lies for either party. Ukraine is not going to fall in its entirety if there will be peace talks recognizing situation on the ground, but I bet you haven’t seen the map of Europe if you think Ukraine is standing between Russia and NATO. If Russia wanted to attack, there’s much more convenient and more strategically important route via Belarus (Russian ally) and Baltics. So no, Ukraine is not fighting for us. They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014. It’s not bad, they have the right and they deserve it, but it’s a very different narrative. Yes, a few people on annexed regions are going to suffer, that will be mostly active political opposition. How many of them will die? You can check statistics on Russian political prisoners. If the peace treaty is signed, there will be no more cannon fodder on either side. Prisoners? Yes. Not a lot.
  - yladiz 2y ago
    > They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014. What are you talking about?
    - ivan_gammel 2y ago
      Please disregard “ethnic”, that was not correct to say, Ukrainian nationalism is not ethnicity-based. What I meant is that prior to the events of 2014 which changed the balance, there was major political division between east and west of Ukraine, and pro-Russian parties controlled the government in 2010-2014. The pro-Western faction won, pro-Russian factions continued to have some support until 2022. Current vision is pro-NATO, pro-EU and rejects neutrality, non-alignment or pro-Russian alignment, but that’s basically it. I’m not sure if typical Ukrainian voter does fully understand the implications of such choices (especially given that prospects of joining either bloc are rather distant).
  - mopsi 2y ago
    We already live in a reality where Russia keeps creeping westwards with aggressions that grow larger on every turn. Why should Russia stop if you validate their strategy? Makes no sense whatsoever. Attack through Belarus against Poland and the Baltics is indeed the most likely scenario after Ukraine should fall. Most military leaders in Eastern Europe forecast that the recovery period will be between 5 to 8 years, pessimistic estimations go as low as 2 years. After that, hundreds of thousands of forcibly conscripted Ukrainians will die between NATO forces in Europe and Russian barrier troops forcing them westwards, just like God knows how many thousands of people from Eastern Ukraine have already fallen in a forced fight against their compatriots. Russians do not offer Ukrainians peace, but a chance to be in the next pool of cannon fodder. Depriving Russians of this pool of conscripts is a vital European security interest, which aligns well with Ukrainians' desire to be free and not live under Russian boot again.
    - ivan_gammel 2y ago
      > We already live in a reality where Russia keeps creeping westwards with aggressions that grow larger on every turn Russia is not creeping westwards. This is a false generalization of their strategy in Ukraine, which is not to expand westwards, but merely to retain control over periphery. They did a huge miscalculation in Ukraine due to corruption in intelligence services, but they are not idiots to start WW3. > Why should Russia stop if you validate their strategy? Makes no sense whatsoever. Shall I repeat the same argument about capabilities or you will just re-read my comment?
martin_a 2y ago
> Every month of war results in tens of thousands of casualties on both sides. Nobody has to die anymore if Russia just stops attacking Ukraine. I know it's hard to believe but it's that easy in the end. They started it, they can end it right here and right now.
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  Oh, yes. And nobody has to die if all nations once and forever agree not to use military power to resolve conflicts. It is that simple, right? Or maybe you need to come out of that cloud castle down to Earth and have a meaningful conversation instead of hollow moralizing?
MrMcCall 2y ago
Well, Russia begging North Korea for meat to push into its meatgrinder tells me a thing or two about the situation, however dire. Remember: Ukraine is fighting for nothing less than survival. Sun Tzu said to not put your enemy on death ground, but it takes a measure of sanity to follow such sound advice. And sanity is not a part of Putin's modus operandi, in case you haven't noticed. And being German, you are no doubt familiar with letting other people die so long as it's not your people, right? Or are you Jewish, per chance? Have you forgotten how important it is for others to rally for the defence of the innocent, or do you just not care? Who needs a miracle when there are compassionate, selfless human beings who have a heart that cares? Is there even a word in German for that concept?
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  I‘m Soviet German per chance, so you played the wrong card.
  - MrMcCall 2y ago
    No, I just unwittingly played the correct one. Who should stop some soldiers from having a little fun, eh? Oh well, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The soul that forgoes compassion has sown a bitter seed, my friend, whose reaping is just a matter of time. Putin, like Stalin, had all the wealth he could want, but never had a shred of happiness. You shouldn't mistake worldly success for happiness. Slava ukrainii.
- r00fus 2y ago
  There were a LOT of red lines crossed by NATO from the moment that Ukraine voted for its independence from Soviet Union in 1992. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-e...
  - MrMcCall 2y ago
    Nothing NATO has ever done has jeopardized anything for Russia. Russia did their evil sh_t because they're evil. Sending a couple of guys to poison an ex-KGB guy and his daughter in Britain is just one example. That article said Russia wanted "security concessions". In the words of Benoit Blanc, "That's a bunch of hooey!" Russia's crippled Soviet fail-state is just a butt-hurt former dictatorial regime that lost their ability to strong-arm a huge chunk of the world with their sh_tty domestic policies. Look, people can concoct any sort of batsh_t crazy reasons to do anything, especially if they have no empathy or compassion in their heart.
rasz 2y ago
>NATO can probably defend itself. According to current Potus shooting at russian hardware would be an escalation. US forbade NATO from shooting down russian drones/missiles crossing NATO territory. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drone-romania-e793c35a0df1679cfe89ac6612706c87 https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drone-romania-... >deployed F-16 warplanes to monitor its airspace and issued text alerts https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-confirms-russian-drones-air-space-debris-ukraine-attacks/ https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-confirms-russian-dro... >Two Finnish Air Force F-18 jets were dispatched from a Romanian air base during the night to monitor the situation https://www.twz.com/nato-fighters-scrambled-as-russian-drone-violates-romanian-airspace https://www.twz.com/nato-fighters-scrambled-as-russian-drone... >“were identified by the German crews, including by visual contact, without an order from NATO to shoot them down,” Monitor, monitor, dont shoot. How about a cover up for russian KH-22 nuclear capable cruise missile crashing 300km deep inside NATO. It flew half way to Berlin before malfunctioning. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-object-found-polish-forest-was-russian-missile-media-2023-05-10/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-object-found-p... Officially it wasnt even spotted by NATO radars, unofficially Airforce was told to stand down and not even look for it. Was found by accident by a civil 6 months later. Purely coincidentally few weeks after this incident Germany got very eager to sent Poland a Patriot system.

mopsi 2y ago

How many casualties per month will the peace you are advocating bring? The parts of Ukraine that have fallen under Russian control have seen almost their entire male population wiped out by forcible conscription for fighting against Ukraine. Should Ukraine fall in its entirety, I have little doubt Russia will decimate the population of currently free parts of Ukraine by using them as cannon fodder in further attacks westwards against Poland.

ivan_gammel 2y ago
The idea about further attacks to the West has no basis in history or reality. There’s zero indication that this may happen: it’s far beyond current Russian capabilities, just like NATO does not have capabilities to start and win an offensive war against Russia. Both threats are no more than convenient lies for either party. Ukraine is not going to fall in its entirety if there will be peace talks recognizing situation on the ground, but I bet you haven’t seen the map of Europe if you think Ukraine is standing between Russia and NATO. If Russia wanted to attack, there’s much more convenient and more strategically important route via Belarus (Russian ally) and Baltics. So no, Ukraine is not fighting for us. They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014. It’s not bad, they have the right and they deserve it, but it’s a very different narrative. Yes, a few people on annexed regions are going to suffer, that will be mostly active political opposition. How many of them will die? You can check statistics on Russian political prisoners. If the peace treaty is signed, there will be no more cannon fodder on either side. Prisoners? Yes. Not a lot.
- yladiz 2y ago
  > They fight for a certain vision of ethnic state that was not even shared by majority of its population before 2014. What are you talking about?
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    Please disregard “ethnic”, that was not correct to say, Ukrainian nationalism is not ethnicity-based. What I meant is that prior to the events of 2014 which changed the balance, there was major political division between east and west of Ukraine, and pro-Russian parties controlled the government in 2010-2014. The pro-Western faction won, pro-Russian factions continued to have some support until 2022. Current vision is pro-NATO, pro-EU and rejects neutrality, non-alignment or pro-Russian alignment, but that’s basically it. I’m not sure if typical Ukrainian voter does fully understand the implications of such choices (especially given that prospects of joining either bloc are rather distant).
- mopsi 2y ago
  We already live in a reality where Russia keeps creeping westwards with aggressions that grow larger on every turn. Why should Russia stop if you validate their strategy? Makes no sense whatsoever. Attack through Belarus against Poland and the Baltics is indeed the most likely scenario after Ukraine should fall. Most military leaders in Eastern Europe forecast that the recovery period will be between 5 to 8 years, pessimistic estimations go as low as 2 years. After that, hundreds of thousands of forcibly conscripted Ukrainians will die between NATO forces in Europe and Russian barrier troops forcing them westwards, just like God knows how many thousands of people from Eastern Ukraine have already fallen in a forced fight against their compatriots. Russians do not offer Ukrainians peace, but a chance to be in the next pool of cannon fodder. Depriving Russians of this pool of conscripts is a vital European security interest, which aligns well with Ukrainians' desire to be free and not live under Russian boot again.
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    > We already live in a reality where Russia keeps creeping westwards with aggressions that grow larger on every turn Russia is not creeping westwards. This is a false generalization of their strategy in Ukraine, which is not to expand westwards, but merely to retain control over periphery. They did a huge miscalculation in Ukraine due to corruption in intelligence services, but they are not idiots to start WW3. > Why should Russia stop if you validate their strategy? Makes no sense whatsoever. Shall I repeat the same argument about capabilities or you will just re-read my comment?

martin_a 2y ago

> Every month of war results in tens of thousands of casualties on both sides. Nobody has to die anymore if Russia just stops attacking Ukraine. I know it's hard to believe but it's that easy in the end. They started it, they can end it right here and right now.

ivan_gammel 2y ago
Oh, yes. And nobody has to die if all nations once and forever agree not to use military power to resolve conflicts. It is that simple, right? Or maybe you need to come out of that cloud castle down to Earth and have a meaningful conversation instead of hollow moralizing?

MrMcCall 2y ago

Well, Russia begging North Korea for meat to push into its meatgrinder tells me a thing or two about the situation, however dire. Remember: Ukraine is fighting for nothing less than survival. Sun Tzu said to not put your enemy on death ground, but it takes a measure of sanity to follow such sound advice. And sanity is not a part of Putin's modus operandi, in case you haven't noticed. And being German, you are no doubt familiar with letting other people die so long as it's not your people, right? Or are you Jewish, per chance? Have you forgotten how important it is for others to rally for the defence of the innocent, or do you just not care? Who needs a miracle when there are compassionate, selfless human beings who have a heart that cares? Is there even a word in German for that concept?

ivan_gammel 2y ago
I‘m Soviet German per chance, so you played the wrong card.
- MrMcCall 2y ago
  No, I just unwittingly played the correct one. Who should stop some soldiers from having a little fun, eh? Oh well, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The soul that forgoes compassion has sown a bitter seed, my friend, whose reaping is just a matter of time. Putin, like Stalin, had all the wealth he could want, but never had a shred of happiness. You shouldn't mistake worldly success for happiness. Slava ukrainii.
r00fus 2y ago
There were a LOT of red lines crossed by NATO from the moment that Ukraine voted for its independence from Soviet Union in 1992. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-e...
- MrMcCall 2y ago
  Nothing NATO has ever done has jeopardized anything for Russia. Russia did their evil sh_t because they're evil. Sending a couple of guys to poison an ex-KGB guy and his daughter in Britain is just one example. That article said Russia wanted "security concessions". In the words of Benoit Blanc, "That's a bunch of hooey!" Russia's crippled Soviet fail-state is just a butt-hurt former dictatorial regime that lost their ability to strong-arm a huge chunk of the world with their sh_tty domestic policies. Look, people can concoct any sort of batsh_t crazy reasons to do anything, especially if they have no empathy or compassion in their heart.

rasz 2y ago

>NATO can probably defend itself. According to current Potus shooting at russian hardware would be an escalation. US forbade NATO from shooting down russian drones/missiles crossing NATO territory. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drone-romania-e793c35a0df1679cfe89ac6612706c87 https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drone-romania-... >deployed F-16 warplanes to monitor its airspace and issued text alerts https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-confirms-russian-drones-air-space-debris-ukraine-attacks/ https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-confirms-russian-dro... >Two Finnish Air Force F-18 jets were dispatched from a Romanian air base during the night to monitor the situation https://www.twz.com/nato-fighters-scrambled-as-russian-drone-violates-romanian-airspace https://www.twz.com/nato-fighters-scrambled-as-russian-drone... >“were identified by the German crews, including by visual contact, without an order from NATO to shoot them down,” Monitor, monitor, dont shoot. How about a cover up for russian KH-22 nuclear capable cruise missile crashing 300km deep inside NATO. It flew half way to Berlin before malfunctioning. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-object-found-polish-forest-was-russian-missile-media-2023-05-10/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-object-found-p... Officially it wasnt even spotted by NATO radars, unofficially Airforce was told to stand down and not even look for it. Was found by accident by a civil 6 months later. Purely coincidentally few weeks after this incident Germany got very eager to sent Poland a Patriot system.