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Hm. But what if Russia doesn't give up even now? Do you have a plan for that? The "3 day" meme actually originates from the USA. Russia didn't say anything abou

Hm. But what if Russia doesn't give up even now? Do you have a plan for that? The "3 day" meme actually originates from the USA. Russia didn't say anything about the terms (ever). How long did your war in Afghanistan take, by the way?

mcphage 2y ago
You mean the one we spent 20 years at and lost, having to do exactly what OP is suggesting? On the other hand, 20 years in Afghanistan led to less than 2,000 US soldiers dead, and I think Russian passed that many many times over already.
- red-iron-pine 2y ago
  to put a finer point on it, 20 years of Iraq and Afghanistan saw about ~60000 casualties. a little less then 1/3 of those casualties returned to duty. about ~6000 were killed, or roughly 1/10. by comparison Russia is on track to hit a million (1000000), by Summer 2025, with estimates of about 1/4 to 1/3 being "Cargo 200" (aka KIA). It's on track to exceed Iran-Iraq as most brutal conflict of the last 50 years -- and Iran-Iraq lasted most of the 1980s; this hasn't even been 3 full years yet.
  - sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
    It's really interesting: what are your estimations of Ukrainian losses? Of course, Afghanistan wasn't being armed and funded by 50 countries - and yet you failed there..
    - red-iron-pine 2y ago
      There is no "you failed there" in this, I'm not in the US. I can read statistics though. The ad hominim + terrible karma and post history suggests that sedan_baklazhan is a shill. But I'll bite. Afghanistan was absolutely being funded and armed by Russia, China, Iran, and Pakistan -- the Russians basically pushed as many angry Chechens to head there, both to hammer the US, but also to get them out of RUS and killed or captured. There was the infamous shipment of .50 cal sniper rifles from China to the AFG that only got stopped because Dutch intelligence decided to doublecheck a few trivial details. 20 years of such incidents. On the subject of being able to read OSINT tier speculations and statistics, credible-ish sources suggest that Ukraine has been taking 50% or less casualties -- at one point even as low as 1:6 as they were getting pushed out of Bakhmut. Still, I'd be willing to guess as high as 400k, maybe even 500k casualties. WIA to KIA ratio is probably better than the Russians, too, but nowhere near US numbers of 10%.
    - mcphage 2y ago
      > Afghanistan wasn't being armed and funded by 50 countries - and yet you failed there.. Exactly—so now imagine how much worse it would have gone for the US had the Taliban been armed and funded by 50 countries. Of course, the Taliban were being armed and funded by other countries. But probably not 50.
- red-iron-pine 2y ago
  20 years of Iraq and Afghanistan saw about ~60000 casualties. a little less then 1/3 of those casualties returned to duty. about ~6000 were killed, or roughly 1/10. by comparison Russia is on track to hit a million (1000000), by Summer 2025, with estimates of about 1/4 to 1/3 being "Cargo 200" (aka KIA). It's on track to exceed Iran-Iraq as most brutal conflict of the last 50 years -- and Iran-Iraq lasted most of the 1980s; this hasn't even been 3 full years yet.

mcphage 2y ago

You mean the one we spent 20 years at and lost, having to do exactly what OP is suggesting? On the other hand, 20 years in Afghanistan led to less than 2,000 US soldiers dead, and I think Russian passed that many many times over already.

red-iron-pine 2y ago
to put a finer point on it, 20 years of Iraq and Afghanistan saw about ~60000 casualties. a little less then 1/3 of those casualties returned to duty. about ~6000 were killed, or roughly 1/10. by comparison Russia is on track to hit a million (1000000), by Summer 2025, with estimates of about 1/4 to 1/3 being "Cargo 200" (aka KIA). It's on track to exceed Iran-Iraq as most brutal conflict of the last 50 years -- and Iran-Iraq lasted most of the 1980s; this hasn't even been 3 full years yet.
- sedan_baklazhan 2y ago
  It's really interesting: what are your estimations of Ukrainian losses? Of course, Afghanistan wasn't being armed and funded by 50 countries - and yet you failed there..
  - red-iron-pine 2y ago
    There is no "you failed there" in this, I'm not in the US. I can read statistics though. The ad hominim + terrible karma and post history suggests that sedan_baklazhan is a shill. But I'll bite. Afghanistan was absolutely being funded and armed by Russia, China, Iran, and Pakistan -- the Russians basically pushed as many angry Chechens to head there, both to hammer the US, but also to get them out of RUS and killed or captured. There was the infamous shipment of .50 cal sniper rifles from China to the AFG that only got stopped because Dutch intelligence decided to doublecheck a few trivial details. 20 years of such incidents. On the subject of being able to read OSINT tier speculations and statistics, credible-ish sources suggest that Ukraine has been taking 50% or less casualties -- at one point even as low as 1:6 as they were getting pushed out of Bakhmut. Still, I'd be willing to guess as high as 400k, maybe even 500k casualties. WIA to KIA ratio is probably better than the Russians, too, but nowhere near US numbers of 10%.
  - mcphage 2y ago
    > Afghanistan wasn't being armed and funded by 50 countries - and yet you failed there.. Exactly—so now imagine how much worse it would have gone for the US had the Taliban been armed and funded by 50 countries. Of course, the Taliban were being armed and funded by other countries. But probably not 50.
red-iron-pine 2y ago
20 years of Iraq and Afghanistan saw about ~60000 casualties. a little less then 1/3 of those casualties returned to duty. about ~6000 were killed, or roughly 1/10. by comparison Russia is on track to hit a million (1000000), by Summer 2025, with estimates of about 1/4 to 1/3 being "Cargo 200" (aka KIA). It's on track to exceed Iran-Iraq as most brutal conflict of the last 50 years -- and Iran-Iraq lasted most of the 1980s; this hasn't even been 3 full years yet.