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There's a nice presentation of the paper here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QjgvbvFoQA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QjgvbvFoQA In essence the effect com
by seanhunter 2y ago
There's a nice presentation of the paper here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QjgvbvFoQA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QjgvbvFoQA
In essence the effect comes from "precession" - the tendency of the flip to not be purely vertical but to have some wobble/angular momentum which causes it to flip in such a way as to spend longer on one side than the other. Depending on the technique this will have a greater or lesser effect on the fairness of the coin toss, ranging from about p_same = 0.508 for the best technique to one person in the study actually exhibiting 0.6 over a large sample which is staggeringly unlikely if the toss was purely fair. In the extreme, it shows in the video a magician doing a trick toss using precession that looks as if it's flipping but does not in fact change sides at all, purely rotating in the plane of the coin and wobbling a bit.
The video is quite a nice one for setting out how hypothesis testing works.
- yread 2y agolink to the "wobble flip" trick https://youtu.be/-QjgvbvFoQA?t=325 https://youtu.be/-QjgvbvFoQA?t=325
- pinko 2y agoI think you accidentally linked to the same video as the parent comment... I bet this is the video you mean? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-L7KOjyDrE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-L7KOjyDrE
- swores 2y agoThey linked to the same video, but to a specific timestamp within it - by adding '?t=325' to the URL, which tells Youtube to play the video from 5m25s rather than from the beginning.
- Vecr 2y agoAh man, please use Bayesian statistics there... Well, the presenter says he doesn't know much about statistics.
- drcwpl 2y agoThis can be really relevant in various fields, statistics, gambling, and decision-making. I like the fact that they imply the importance of considering potential biases in seemingly random events.
- seanhunter 2y agoThe paper does use Bayesian statistics. Presenter is a pure maths PhD.
- Vecr 2y agoI don't think I was clear, but I was only talking about the presenter's attempted explanation of the statistics of this problem.