Why is this analysis focused on the Baltics? That's p hacking, given that it happened to happen in the baltics. Let's instead say there are roughly 20 ocean re

Why is this analysis focused on the Baltics? That's p hacking, given that it happened to happen in the baltics. Let's instead say there are roughly 20 ocean regions we would post hoc consider "the same". Now, given a breakage, what is the probability of at least two more in the same region and day? This is a Poisson distribution with lambda=200/365/20. The probability of two more independent breakages is 0.04 % for that specific day. But again, picking a specific day would be p-hacking. Zooming out, an event that rare is expected to happen every seven years or so. Now, "every seven years" is a far cry from "1 in 36 million." Whenever you get crazy p values like that, there is often an error or overlooked assumption in the analysis. ---- If you like this sort of thing, have a stab at forecasting competitions! I can recommend the Metaculus Quarterly Cup. The current one is in full swing so use the remaining 1.5 months of the year to practice and then you're set for when the January edition starts.