9 ms·
And also the cable between Lithuania and Sweden: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/18/telecoms-cable-in-baltic-sea-may-have-been-severed-says-finnish-
by keskival 2y ago
And also the cable between Lithuania and Sweden:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/18/telecoms-cable-in-baltic-sea-may-have-been-severed-says-finnish-owner https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/18/telecoms-cable...
- threeseed 2y agoAnd also Ireland escorted a Russian spy ship away from their cables: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/16/russian-spy-ship-escorted-away-from-internet-cables-in-irish-sea https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/16/russian-spy-sh...
- feedforward 2y ago[flagged]
- carabiner 2y agoA disruption in communications can mean only one thing: invasion.
- trhway 2y agoyes. What Russia does currently is probing and testing - what it takes to disrupt all the necessary cables simultaneously to create communication breakdown and a lot of chaos, what resources and time it takes to repair (and thus planning the options on blocking those repair resources, etc.) It takes tanks half-a-day to cross the Baltic states to reach the sea. That is the time Russia wants to buy. Once Russian forces are already in Riga, Tallinn, Vilnus, the NATO will have a decision to make on whether to bomb the Russian forces already placed by that time among the Baltic states population.
- chgs 2y agoStill waiting for Russian forces to occupy Kyiv
- trhway 2y agoI suggest you revisit the history of the first days of the invasion, specifically the depth which the ground armored forces reached in the first 2-3 days and what and how they were stopped. The Baltic states "width" is much smaller, and thus there is much less time to organize defense, etc. It is hardly enough time even just for taking the decision to initiate defense. Of course, like in the case with Ukraine, Russia wouldn't succeed if the quick invasion turns instead into a face-to-face war midway. That is why they are looking for a way to create blackout and chaos.
- sekai 2y ago> thus there is much less time to organize defense, etc. Russia was concentrating troops alongside the border for months. It started on October 2021, invasion began on February 2022.
- Moru 2y agoThe invasion started 2014 with Krim and have been ongoing since then (Lost a remote coworker that year). This was just the next logical step.
- andy_ppp 2y agoI’m sure they have a plan to deal with this and loads of NATO troops there armed to the teeth and air superiority so it will be shooting fish in a barrel. We don’t know what will happen but I’m not sure cutting the internet won’t affect Russia pretty badly too - certainly China will not be a fan of the huge disruption it will cause them too.
- VagabundoP 2y agoWe had plenty of warning they were going to invade. The units didn't just pop out of nowhere. Any build up on those borders is now going to be interpreted in that way and you'll have a likely reaction from NATO all across the eastern front. I doubt they would get very far.
- 2y ago
- fractallyte 2y agoConversely, I have no doubt that Lithuania's armed forces have learned from Ukraine's experience: those Russian tanks would all be destroyed within the first few kilometers. ...and that assumes Russia still has enough tanks to even mount an offensive, in sufficient numbers to capture several capital cities, belonging to nations with a fearsome grudge against them. (Three years ago, I would have fully agreed with your assessment!)
- trhway 2y agoyes. That is why Russia hasn't yet moved, and still looking for a way to do it. Russia is deliberately stuck in the past where for example the "War scare of 1927" laid ground and provided the excuse for the militarization of and repressions in USSR and ultimately to the USSR starting WWII together with and as ally of Hitler. And the first thing USSR did back then in 1939 was the "solution" of the perceived issues of the 1927 (the issues which there for the last several centuries) - Finland, Poland and the Baltic states. If you look at the current Russian TV, chats, etc. - their thinking and perception are the same as back then. For them it isn't an issue of whether to do it, it is an issue of how to do it. It took 12 years from 1927 to 1939 during which the country got prepared for the war, at least how they perceived the necessary preparations - in particular it was industrialized and the society was militarized and put completely under dictatorship, and i think we see that today too.
- hackandthink 2y agoThe Soviet Union was right to be scared back then. The next invasion from the west happened 1941. And I guess there is still some paranoia in Russia. The NATO Neocons are busy feeding it.
- trhway 2y ago>The Soviet Union was right to be scared back then. The next invasion from the west happened 1941. Not really. The USSR was scared about what they perceived as Anglo-led forces and so united with Germany against them and attacked them first. The invasion of 1941 came from Germany who was still an ally even just the night before the invasion - Hitler even fed Stalin (and Stalin went for it!) the fake that the German forces got accumulated on the USSR border to mislead Britain into thinking that Germany plans to attack USSR while instead Germany was supposedly preparing to invade Britain. >And I guess there is still some paranoia in Russia. The NATO Neocons are busy feeding it. The Russian paranoia hasn't changed much since Ivan The Terrible, long before neocons.
- avh02 2y agoOh no, if only radio/emergency broadcast television/satellite/alternative cable routes/contingency plans had been invented!
- trhway 2y agoWe can look at October 7th in Israel how long, with all the communications and infrastructure working, it took to organize defense in a very technologically developed country which basically had been living in the state of war readiness. Now add broken significant communications, chaos of non-working banks/ATMs, power shut-offs, clogged highways, etc. (don't get me wrong - i'm not saying that Russia can do all that, i'm saying that Russia is actively working on those capabilities, and whether they achieve it to the needed extent is the key to how the events would go in the near future)
- cryptoegorophy 2y agoI still don’t get how Oct 7 was not an inside job. With mossad crabs everywhere how do you miss such a major plot to attack with so many actors involved?
- stoperaticless 2y agoThese broke cables have not affected daily lives (possibly ISPs had extra work though)
- nopakos 2y agoHey! I woke up at 06:00 to check what was wrong with a service. It turned out, a server in Germany could not reach a server in Finland in the 20" timeout I had set.
- toast0 2y agoYou set your timeout in inches? I thought you were all metric over tehre, except for socket drivers which are universally imperial :P
- sekai 2y ago> It takes tanks half-a-day to cross the Baltic states to reach the sea And how long does it take for the F35 to fly across all Baltic States? 30 minutes at max speed. Without air supremacy, Russia would be dead in the water. > That is the time Russia wants to buy. Once Russian forces are already in Riga, Tallinn, Vilnus, the NATO will have a decision to make on whether to bomb the Russian forces already placed by that time among the Baltic states population. If you think Poland and Finland would sit on their hands and do nothing, you're being naive.
- oneshtein 2y agoRF has no air supremacy in Ukraine, so they have high loses, but they advance anyway. Small or large losses will not stop an empire, except Imperial Japan maybe.
- coffeebeqn 2y agoUkraines Air Force is tiny and poorly equipped. Compare it to just the Nordics for example who are soon on hundreds of F-35 and Gripen. Staging any mass movements against that kind of air support will be challenging. Besides NATO already has a large land based army as well. US, Turkey, Poland , Finland all have large ground forces
- oneshtein 2y agoAs I said, RF has no air supremacy already. They have high loses because of that. They accept their losses and move forward. Similar tactics was used by communists in Vietnam and Korea.
- nkrisc 2y agoThis would be more concerning if Russia had any tanks left. Are you suggesting Russia has a full invasion force they’re not using in Ukraine? Or to liberate their own occupied territory?
- v0lta 2y agoToday: no In 5-10 years: probably
- KptMarchewa 2y agoNo, they literally make barely any tanks. What they do is refurbish and modernize post-soviet stock.
- Cthulhu_ 2y agoMaybe, but that's assuming their war economy lasts for that long, that they still have people to run those things, etc. Besides, Europe was caught with its proverbial pants down; in 5-10 years, they will (should) have their military up to speed again, with fresher, better equipped and better trained people than Russia has. The border countries have all upgraded their defenses already, and if they invade a NATO country they suddenly have all of Europe and - if still applicable at the time - the US on their back. There are no scenarios in which Russia can have any significant victories. The only thing they maybe have is nukes, but nobody wins if those are deployed.
- holoduke 2y agoYou forgot one thing. Nato has zero combat experience. Its entire economy is not suitable for warfare. Will take a lot longer than 5 years.
- aguaviva 2y agoNato has zero combat experience. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NATO_operations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NATO_operations
- KptMarchewa 2y ago>It takes tanks half-a-day to cross the Baltic states to reach the sea. And what happens if they actually go for that distance? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Voznesensk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Voznesensk
- trhway 2y agoyes, due to geography, success at Voznesensk basically saved Odessa and the rest of the unoccupied South. That is the point - if Russia took Odessa back then it would basically be game-over. I don't see such strategic points like Voznesensk in the Baltic states though.
- KptMarchewa 2y agoThere is vast difference between just driving somewhere and actually controlling it. Russia learned that in first month of the invasion. If they weren't stopped at Voznesensk, they would be stopped somewhere else - there was singular BTG driving somewhere deep into hostile territory. Another example of BTG driving deep and getting decimated: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4g68MmLrGvM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4g68MmLrGvM
- trhway 2y ago>There is vast difference between just driving somewhere and actually controlling it. Russia learned that in first month of the invasion. I made such comment here in the first hours of the invasion :) >If they weren't stopped at Voznesensk, they would be stopped somewhere else if they were able to take the bridge at Voznesensk, that BTG would keep it, and more forces would come that way.
- KptMarchewa 2y agoI don't believe they'd be able to keep and reinforce it, given that they were only able to bypass Mykolaiv due to the early day chaos. And Mykolaiv was giving rest of russian forces there enough problems. However, at this point it's only speculation, probably not worth getting deeper into it.
- Cthulhu_ 2y agoThere's plenty of alternative communications systems in place and I presume the military does not depend exclusively on one, two, or even three systems, least of all the relatively vulnerable internet cables. NATO, borders, and the Russian invasion response playbooks predate the internet by decades, too. While theoretically it's possible that Russia would simultaneously dismantle or jam the internet, mobile phones, radio, sattelite, and runners in fast cars, if that does happen it's already red alert everywhere.
- dragonwriter 2y ago> Once Russian forces are already in Riga, Tallinn, Vilnus, the NATO will have a decision to make on whether to bomb the Russian forces already placed by that time among the Baltic states population. NATO has forward deployed forces to assure that to take Riga, Tallin, and Vilnius, Russia will have to attack and defeat armed forces of the UK, Canada, and Germany respectively. More than that, really, those are just the lead nations in the NATO forward-deployed battlegroups in those countries. There are also five other forward-deployed battlegroups, four of which — as well as reinforcement of the original four in the Baltics + Poland – were deployed in response to the 2022 Russian escalation in Ukraine. Cutting undersea cables is not going to prevent (or even meaningfully slow) a response given that.
- thephyber 2y agoCalm down with the fanfic. RU spent months gathering forces on the UA in Jan, Feb 2022. All the while, the US was publicly telling UA the odds of invasion were high. Moving atoms at that scale doesn’t happen without lots of visible signs. The border nations already know what to look for. And some border states have already built barriers at the border with RU, notably Poland.
- lolinder 2y agoIt can also mean that Russia is posturing and retaliating for the US's announcement that Ukraine can strike inside Russia with US missiles. This feels more like the same kind of exercise that North Korea does with their missile tests than it does an actual invasion.
- lesuorac 2y agoI never really liked the whole sabotage is just "posturing" opinion. Like there's real physical stuff destroyed (or in most circumstances digital stuff). How hard is it to impound ships that break stuff and etc so that the ones responsible are actually punished?
- cmrdporcupine 2y agoProbably no harder than impounding illegal unsafe unregistered oil shipping transports making their way through the Baltic->Black sea right now, evading sanctions. Not hard. Not done. Because we're cowards.
- ijidak 2y agoDidn't the cable get cut before the announcement regarding Ukraine being able to use U.S. missiles against Russia?
- lolinder 2y agoPossibly, but only by hours—the news about the missile announcement was on Sunday afternoon, and the cable was cut Sunday morning. But it's unclear when the policy was actually communicated to Ukraine and Russia almost certainly found out about it immediately after Ukraine did (or even before).
- cmrdporcupine 2y agoRussia does not have the manpower or logistics to invade anywhere (else). They have spent 2 years tossing meat-waves against Ukraine to grind them down, take a few km a week, and cause demoralization until their stooge could get into the Whitehouse and give it all to them for free. Invading the Baltics or Poland or Sweden... not on the table. "Hybrid" warfare, yes. But that's been going on for two decades. Thing is: cutting people's fiber optic lines isn't going to get them out of this sanction regime.
- CryptoBanker 2y agoThis isn’t Reddit…
- croes 2y agoThat‘s one of the cables mentioned in the CNN article.