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The bear metaphore is indeed nonsense. Russia is not a bear, you are dealing with a bunch of state level criminals. The state of Russia is essentially bette

The bear metaphore is indeed nonsense. Russia is not a bear, you are dealing with a bunch of state level criminals. The state of Russia is essentially better understood as a criminal gang masquerading as a country. Those stealing, money laundering, killing, trafficking an warring circles of oligarchs are heavily rooted in Intelligence Services, inside and abroad. Some of those oligarchs even have private militaries. Those people primarily care for themselves. They know they can get away with a ton of insane and inhuman shit, as they calculate the other well-behaving party will back off. They however do not want to get nuclear consequences themselves, it is pure bluff.

sofixa 2y ago
> The bear metaphore is indeed nonsense. Russia is not a bear, you are dealing with a bunch of state level criminals With nukes, which makes them pretty scary.
abraxas 2y ago
[flagged]
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > problem starts if (when?) Trump and his clown posse turns the US into a similar setup Lots of institutional checks in America that post-Soviet Russia lacked.
  - jiggawatts 2y ago
    Trump now controls all of them. He said he has a mandate. I really don’t know what you’re talking about when he or his party control the governors, congress, the senate, the presidency, and the Supreme Court. America is about to speedrun some things and you won’t like it.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Trump now controls all of them No, he doesn't. The GOP narrowly controls the House and Senate, and Trump has strong influence over them. That doesn't mean he controls them. And that's before we get to the states and lower courts.
      - SauciestGNU 2y ago
        The courts are effectively captured at every level, because Trump can scribble a writ of cert on a McDonald's napkin and SCOTUS will grant cert and provide the desired outcome. The playbook across the country will be the same, mark my words. The fascists will file motions for changes of venue out of state courts with integrity and into captured federal courts.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > courts are effectively captured at every level, because Trump can scribble a writ of cert on a McDonald's napkin and SCOTUS will grant cert and provide the desired outcome Sure. This takes time. You also can’t remove state cases to any federal court, it has to be in the circuit.
        SauciestGNU 2y ago
        Judge and venue shopping makes it pretty easy though. What circuit hasn't been captured by the federalist society? Even the 9th is getting conservative.
  - buran77 2y ago
    > Lots of institutional checks You're right but given enough time of the "right" type of people entrenching their power (which of course may not be "one term" but that could be enough to put things on a path), and even the best of checks and defense mechanisms start to evaporate or just become a tool against what they were intended to defend.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > given enough time of the "right" type of people entrenching their power, and even the best of checks and defense mechanisms start to evaporate or just become a tool against what they were intended to defend Sure. If the GOP sweeps the midterms and 2028, and also seizes most legislatures and governships, and they all remain loyal to Trump, we will see a situation resembling post-Yeltsin Russia.
  - sofixa 2y ago
    A lot of those checks exist solely on paper, and the people who should be enacting them can't look paat their noses in grift/short term political profit to do their jobs (be they senate majority leaders or supreme court justices or regular lawmakers). Hell, Trump refused to cede control of his businesses to a blind trust, and profited extensively (billing the state for his secret service detail having to stay at his resort while he's golfing) and used it to funnel money (various foreign entities paid obscene amounts of money to stay in his properties). Even just the last one should have been utterly disqualifying from an ethics perspective, and yet... A coup was attempted (doesn't matter how poorly or clown-like, the intent is all that matters). Influence and favours were sold to other countries. None of this had any impact, even if the "checks" should have resulted in treason sentences.
rainingmonkey 2y ago
Without knowing any of the individuals involve, this intuitively seems like a useful model to predict the actions of the state. I wonder how effective the technique would be for the US government and our own oligarchs?
gorbachev 2y ago
The "academic" term for Russia's style of governing is a kleptocracy. Your description is 100% accurate.
- gmerc 2y ago
  Americans are about to get intimately familiar with this mode of governments anyway

sofixa 2y ago

> The bear metaphore is indeed nonsense. Russia is not a bear, you are dealing with a bunch of state level criminals With nukes, which makes them pretty scary.

abraxas 2y ago

[flagged]

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> problem starts if (when?) Trump and his clown posse turns the US into a similar setup Lots of institutional checks in America that post-Soviet Russia lacked.
- jiggawatts 2y ago
  Trump now controls all of them. He said he has a mandate. I really don’t know what you’re talking about when he or his party control the governors, congress, the senate, the presidency, and the Supreme Court. America is about to speedrun some things and you won’t like it.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Trump now controls all of them No, he doesn't. The GOP narrowly controls the House and Senate, and Trump has strong influence over them. That doesn't mean he controls them. And that's before we get to the states and lower courts.
    - SauciestGNU 2y ago
      The courts are effectively captured at every level, because Trump can scribble a writ of cert on a McDonald's napkin and SCOTUS will grant cert and provide the desired outcome. The playbook across the country will be the same, mark my words. The fascists will file motions for changes of venue out of state courts with integrity and into captured federal courts.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > courts are effectively captured at every level, because Trump can scribble a writ of cert on a McDonald's napkin and SCOTUS will grant cert and provide the desired outcome Sure. This takes time. You also can’t remove state cases to any federal court, it has to be in the circuit.
        SauciestGNU 2y ago
        Judge and venue shopping makes it pretty easy though. What circuit hasn't been captured by the federalist society? Even the 9th is getting conservative.
- buran77 2y ago
  > Lots of institutional checks You're right but given enough time of the "right" type of people entrenching their power (which of course may not be "one term" but that could be enough to put things on a path), and even the best of checks and defense mechanisms start to evaporate or just become a tool against what they were intended to defend.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > given enough time of the "right" type of people entrenching their power, and even the best of checks and defense mechanisms start to evaporate or just become a tool against what they were intended to defend Sure. If the GOP sweeps the midterms and 2028, and also seizes most legislatures and governships, and they all remain loyal to Trump, we will see a situation resembling post-Yeltsin Russia.
- sofixa 2y ago
  A lot of those checks exist solely on paper, and the people who should be enacting them can't look paat their noses in grift/short term political profit to do their jobs (be they senate majority leaders or supreme court justices or regular lawmakers). Hell, Trump refused to cede control of his businesses to a blind trust, and profited extensively (billing the state for his secret service detail having to stay at his resort while he's golfing) and used it to funnel money (various foreign entities paid obscene amounts of money to stay in his properties). Even just the last one should have been utterly disqualifying from an ethics perspective, and yet... A coup was attempted (doesn't matter how poorly or clown-like, the intent is all that matters). Influence and favours were sold to other countries. None of this had any impact, even if the "checks" should have resulted in treason sentences.

rainingmonkey 2y ago

Without knowing any of the individuals involve, this intuitively seems like a useful model to predict the actions of the state. I wonder how effective the technique would be for the US government and our own oligarchs?

gorbachev 2y ago

The "academic" term for Russia's style of governing is a kleptocracy. Your description is 100% accurate.

gmerc 2y ago
Americans are about to get intimately familiar with this mode of governments anyway