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I just watched Patlabor 2 last night, about a civil war in post-Cold War Japan. The main theme is the following: The thing about one-in-a-million events is that
by ipnon 2y ago
I just watched Patlabor 2 last night, about a civil war in post-Cold War Japan. The main theme is the following: The thing about one-in-a-million events is that they are eventually going to happen once the other 999,999 occur. Thus a government which does not plan for one-in-a-million scenarios is truly derelict and incapable of survival.
- daneel_w 2y agoFantastic movie, great political plot, great direction. Part 1 is decent, too.
- HPsquared 2y agoI put the odds at least 10% this century.
- xg15 2y ago> The thing about one-in-a-million events is that they are eventually going to happen once the other 999,999 occur. Nitpick: I get your point, but phrasing it like this is basically the gambler's fallacy. That's not how probability works. You could ask though if, given the changed environment, the one-in-a-million event still has the odds of one-in-a-million. Or if one-in-a-million is really such a rare thing if you make a billion draws...
- ipnon 2y agoThe movie asks what is the point of JSDF if Japan isn’t under any threat … then somebody in an F-16 fires a TV guided missile into the Yokohama Bay Bridge. It’s a good movie, you should watch it.
- xg15 2y agoSounds good indeed!
- mdp2021 2y agoBetter formulation: a one-in-a-million event that is tried a million times has a ~63% chance of happening.
- fsckboy 2y agoyes, that doesn't suffer from gambler's fallacy, but actually surprises people and makes them forget about the issue you're talking about and focus on the probabilities that they don't understand and have no tools to understand... and that's when the 1 in a million event takes place, while they are distracted
- mdp2021 2y ago> that they don't understand and have no tools to understand Why are they not scholarized? What are they doing in the wild? There's an infestation and it is mentioned marginally, as opposed to red-level crisis?! > while they are distracted They should be trained towards the conditions for focus pre-emptively!
- eiffel31 2y ago“Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.” (The author is left as an exercise for the reader)
- EasyMark 2y agoThat’s not really how odds work. I could take 1,000,000 cycles or 10,000,000 cycles or even more for a 1/1,000,000 to happen.