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You could be right, if there’s innovation in storage tech. I currently have my eyes on sodium ion, which doesn’t have the resource issues of lithium ion, and is

You could be right, if there’s innovation in storage tech. I currently have my eyes on sodium ion, which doesn’t have the resource issues of lithium ion, and is already dirt cheap. Hasn’t got great gravimetric density, but perfect for grid storage

xbmcuser 2y ago
Although sodium is good, LFP batteries are already below $65-68/Kwh and do not have the same risk of thermal runaway that lithium-ion batteries do. These batteries are being rated for 6000+ cycles without more than 80-90% degradation (i.e. daily charge discharge for 20 years). So LCOE of battery storage systems like Tesla Megapack are now around $0.06c/Kwh, which is cheaper than the average electricity price in most of the world. The biggest problem the world faces to decarbonize now is finance rather than technology, as few can afford to pay 10-20 years of electricity usage upfront, apart from rich countries. I hope the battery storage prices keep the cost trajectory as smaller the payback period, the faster and larger the adoption will be.
- h0l0cube 2y ago
  Well aware of LFP. The device I’m using now was charged by it. The problem is that grid storage needs tremendous scale, and for that lithium battery chemistries are constrained by lithium extraction. Sodium is already abundantly available
  - xbmcuser 2y ago
    I was bullish on sodium ion batteries last year but now I don't see them taking off at least for the next few years unless sodium ion tech is 40-50% cheaper today. The reason being no matter how much oil and gas companies keep harping about lithium shortage reality is lithium production is likely to stay ahead of demand for the next few years. And the incremental improvement in lithium battery tech and production each year keeps sodium ion tech from keeping any cost advantage.
    - h0l0cube 2y ago
      Last I checked they were always on par for household energy storage units, leave aside grid scale. If this is their starting price before economies of scale really kick in, then I can’t see what the next couple of years bring. Esp. as new grid scale batteries are coming online. There’s still more innovation to do in terms of improving cycle life though
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

xbmcuser 2y ago

Although sodium is good, LFP batteries are already below $65-68/Kwh and do not have the same risk of thermal runaway that lithium-ion batteries do. These batteries are being rated for 6000+ cycles without more than 80-90% degradation (i.e. daily charge discharge for 20 years). So LCOE of battery storage systems like Tesla Megapack are now around $0.06c/Kwh, which is cheaper than the average electricity price in most of the world. The biggest problem the world faces to decarbonize now is finance rather than technology, as few can afford to pay 10-20 years of electricity usage upfront, apart from rich countries. I hope the battery storage prices keep the cost trajectory as smaller the payback period, the faster and larger the adoption will be.

h0l0cube 2y ago
Well aware of LFP. The device I’m using now was charged by it. The problem is that grid storage needs tremendous scale, and for that lithium battery chemistries are constrained by lithium extraction. Sodium is already abundantly available
- xbmcuser 2y ago
  I was bullish on sodium ion batteries last year but now I don't see them taking off at least for the next few years unless sodium ion tech is 40-50% cheaper today. The reason being no matter how much oil and gas companies keep harping about lithium shortage reality is lithium production is likely to stay ahead of demand for the next few years. And the incremental improvement in lithium battery tech and production each year keeps sodium ion tech from keeping any cost advantage.
  - h0l0cube 2y ago
    Last I checked they were always on par for household energy storage units, leave aside grid scale. If this is their starting price before economies of scale really kick in, then I can’t see what the next couple of years bring. Esp. as new grid scale batteries are coming online. There’s still more innovation to do in terms of improving cycle life though

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]