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The strategy this paper seems to be describing is well known as “chasing steam”. You keep an eye on the odds at a “sharp” book, one that’s good at tracking whic

The strategy this paper seems to be describing is well known as “chasing steam”. You keep an eye on the odds at a “sharp” book, one that’s good at tracking which clients of theirs often win and adjust their odds accordingly, then find books that are slower to adjust their odds. There’s a long tail of “pay per head” bookies, basically your classic street corner bookie but with a SaaS for taking bets, and they’re often the slowest to adjust. The problem is that identifying this is very easy for a sports book. Basically “show me all accounts that consistently make bets right before we adjust the odds” and then they ban/limit those accounts. In practice the heavy lifting for winning sports bettors is building a network of “outs” or players that will place bets on their behalf. The idea is that you have a recreational bettor (i.e. bets for fun and usually loses) that puts down a bet on your behalf with your money, and if it wins they get to keep a slice. This masks the sharp bets with their personal bad bets. Really the strategy to beat the odds is one of the easiest parts of the equation. It’s good old fashion people management that’s the biggest part of what makes it work.

Scottn1 2y ago
When I moved to Las Vegas in the late 90's, I became friends with someone in my new circle who was from Brooklyn, NY and a pretty active sports better. I mean this wasn't the recreational type doing for-fun $20 parlays on Sunday, he was routinely doing $500 and $1k bets ("dimes" he called them). I had been to Vegas on trips before and remember bringing $300 for gambling for a weekend and thinking that was a lot. I was in utter shock at how much he would be riding on a typical NCAA Football Saturday and NFL Sunday. It was one of my first true experiences in my life of what hardcore gambling was and a side I have never seen or known. Anyway, I remember very clearly how serious his betting was and how he solely looked to find any edges he could. It wasn't about handicapping a game, he was a line sharp. Remember this was a time where Internet was still dial-up and wagering off-shore was still very early days. Many times he would be calling old-fashioned bookmakers back home. He was paying for a service called Don Best and at the time it was pretty expensive but was able to get line-moves almost in real time. He was "Chasing Steam" as you called it. Watch for big line moves in Best and place bets where he could that haven't caught it yet. He was pretty successful and quit his full time job while buying a house, cars, etc. Not flashy but just a living. Eventually, as all things gambling, it started to turn bad for him. He was getting accounts suspended and getting listed as a sharp. He would call customer support playing dumb and I remember one guy at an offshore book on speaker-phone flat out told him basically no longer want his business as every time he places a bet with them the lines were moving shortly after in his favor and wanted to know what he was using. I remember his downfall being pretty fast after that. It started with just getting blacklisted at some and the few reputable offshore books left wouldn't keep him long when they discovered he was a steam chaser. He tried changing phone numbers and fake ID's and they caught onto that. Eventually any book that did take his action he started to hear Don Best line moves in the background on the phone and they would tell him to "hold on something is happening" then just give him the new adjusted line. The edge was gone and he started to bet with shadier old-school bookies that didn't have the technology, but they just didn't pay him anyway. He started to see the writing on the wall and the bill pressures started to effect him as he started to just push into trying to handicap and pick winners based on gut and dabble into some line making software. At one point he was in for a very large sum after a bad Sunday, something like $70k he owed. He struggled for a good 5 years after that, divorced and back to a 9-5. Last I seen him was right before Covid and he was out of that world not having placed a bet in a long while he said and was now into options trading. I doubt betting line moves is even a thing anymore. Information just moves so fast now and books have evolved way beyond. Plus with how big sports wagering in in the US, lines probably only move now because of large public betting waves or injuries.
- jtchang 2y ago
  Such a great story. Something like this could have only been pulled off in that era.
- lurkshark 2y ago
  Thank you for sharing this. The gambling world has always been a fascination of mine and I would’ve loved to have been a bit older during the heyday of offshore bookies.
- mobiledev2014 2y ago
  > I doubt betting line moves is even a thing anymore It definitely is and it is lucrative if you go down the right rabbit holes. When you are able to be disciplined and completely ignore any sports fandoms you might have, you can have many "dimes" riding at a time and not even break a sweat
- HWR_14 2y ago
  > he was out of that world not having placed a bet in a long while he said and was now into options trading. There are many ways of trading options as part of an investment strategy. But it also possible to trade options in a way that is functionally gambling.

Scottn1 2y ago

When I moved to Las Vegas in the late 90's, I became friends with someone in my new circle who was from Brooklyn, NY and a pretty active sports better. I mean this wasn't the recreational type doing for-fun $20 parlays on Sunday, he was routinely doing $500 and $1k bets ("dimes" he called them). I had been to Vegas on trips before and remember bringing $300 for gambling for a weekend and thinking that was a lot. I was in utter shock at how much he would be riding on a typical NCAA Football Saturday and NFL Sunday. It was one of my first true experiences in my life of what hardcore gambling was and a side I have never seen or known. Anyway, I remember very clearly how serious his betting was and how he solely looked to find any edges he could. It wasn't about handicapping a game, he was a line sharp. Remember this was a time where Internet was still dial-up and wagering off-shore was still very early days. Many times he would be calling old-fashioned bookmakers back home. He was paying for a service called Don Best and at the time it was pretty expensive but was able to get line-moves almost in real time. He was "Chasing Steam" as you called it. Watch for big line moves in Best and place bets where he could that haven't caught it yet. He was pretty successful and quit his full time job while buying a house, cars, etc. Not flashy but just a living. Eventually, as all things gambling, it started to turn bad for him. He was getting accounts suspended and getting listed as a sharp. He would call customer support playing dumb and I remember one guy at an offshore book on speaker-phone flat out told him basically no longer want his business as every time he places a bet with them the lines were moving shortly after in his favor and wanted to know what he was using. I remember his downfall being pretty fast after that. It started with just getting blacklisted at some and the few reputable offshore books left wouldn't keep him long when they discovered he was a steam chaser. He tried changing phone numbers and fake ID's and they caught onto that. Eventually any book that did take his action he started to hear Don Best line moves in the background on the phone and they would tell him to "hold on something is happening" then just give him the new adjusted line. The edge was gone and he started to bet with shadier old-school bookies that didn't have the technology, but they just didn't pay him anyway. He started to see the writing on the wall and the bill pressures started to effect him as he started to just push into trying to handicap and pick winners based on gut and dabble into some line making software. At one point he was in for a very large sum after a bad Sunday, something like $70k he owed. He struggled for a good 5 years after that, divorced and back to a 9-5. Last I seen him was right before Covid and he was out of that world not having placed a bet in a long while he said and was now into options trading. I doubt betting line moves is even a thing anymore. Information just moves so fast now and books have evolved way beyond. Plus with how big sports wagering in in the US, lines probably only move now because of large public betting waves or injuries.

jtchang 2y ago
Such a great story. Something like this could have only been pulled off in that era.
lurkshark 2y ago
Thank you for sharing this. The gambling world has always been a fascination of mine and I would’ve loved to have been a bit older during the heyday of offshore bookies.
mobiledev2014 2y ago
> I doubt betting line moves is even a thing anymore It definitely is and it is lucrative if you go down the right rabbit holes. When you are able to be disciplined and completely ignore any sports fandoms you might have, you can have many "dimes" riding at a time and not even break a sweat
HWR_14 2y ago
> he was out of that world not having placed a bet in a long while he said and was now into options trading. There are many ways of trading options as part of an investment strategy. But it also possible to trade options in a way that is functionally gambling.