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I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but this is literally how the market becomes more efficient: by allowing participants with more information and reducing t
by saxelsen 2y ago
I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but this is literally how the market becomes more efficient: by allowing participants with more information and reducing the arbitrage opportunities.
The bookmakers don't set the odds based on their own expectations, they set the odds compared to how the market bets and then add their own margin on top (the "vig"). Just like a stockbroker would.
In sports betting, compared to financial markets, the general reason why people aren't wildly successful is that if they have too much of an edge the bookmakers find some way to limit their succes (limited bet sizes, banning, etc)
- lurkshark 2y agoA caveat here with the stock market comparison, although there are some betting exchanges like Matchbook, most betting is done with fixed odds. That is, the book isn’t letting the market set the odds in the sense of trying to balance their action and add vig, they’re trying to get the most “correct” odds. Often this involves tracking the sharp bettors within the market, but not the market as a whole. The sharp odds is another factor that makes it impossible to be wildly successful (in addition to your callout on banning/limiting). Like NFL lines as an extreme example are so sharp that I don’t think anyone could reliably beat them.