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There's a lot of speculation about when peak coal and fossil usage is going to be in China. There is some suggestion that that might actually be right now. Chin
by jillesvangurp 2y ago
There's a lot of speculation about when peak coal and fossil usage is going to be in China. There is some suggestion that that might actually be right now. China's aggressive rollout of solar, wind, and battery is shifting a lot of their plans by years or decades. The official line is still that they want to be carbon neutral by 2060. But they might actually get there a lot sooner if the current trends continue.
In any case, the economic case for coal is indeed pretty clear at this point: it's simply too expensive in most markets. Even in markets where coal mining is a big part of the local economy.
And while gas has taken up some of the slack (especially in the US), the vast majority of additions to the grid world wide are renewables.
Peak gas usage world wide is a bit murky. Projections range from right now to 2030 (IEA). But the bottom line is that we're not really replacing coal with gas. There are a lot of gas peaker plants not running all the time that were designed originally to be running 24/7. That massively changes the economics and profitability of these things and makes them a lot less attractive to investors.
- Animats 2y agoGas peaker plants aren't intended to be run 24/7. That's why they're called "peaker plants". Most of the cost is fuel, so they can be profitable if run only during peak periods. Nuclear plants are all fixed cost. So reducing power produced during off-hours increases cost per KWh.