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China's coal plants are running at steadily reduced capacity (while their renewables capacity is growing exponentially). > In the first decade of the 2000s, pl

China's coal plants are running at steadily reduced capacity (while their renewables capacity is growing exponentially). > In the first decade of the 2000s, plants were running around 70% of the time. They’re now running around 50%. https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/i/141628065/chinas-coal-plants-are-running-less-often https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/i/141628065/chinas-c...

megaman821 2y ago
Most coal plants in China will probably be used a peaker plants in the future. They don't make the best peaker plants, but China doesn't have much natural gas.
- h0l0cube 2y ago
  The linked article by Hannah Ritchie states the case for this. There's also this article about an Australian experiment to shut off and turn back on a coal plant within 5 hours: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-13/australian-coal-plant-in-extraordinary-survival-experiment/104461504 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-13/australian-coal-plant... Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41831861 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41831861
- xbmcuser 2y ago
  Battery storage is pricing out gas peaker plants everywhere so unlikely coal will take over peak usage in china
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    Coal has already taken over peak generation in China. They've only started to build battery plants, so coal will be covering peaks for anther decade at least.
    - tuna74 2y ago
      Grid battery peakers can be built really fast. China is going to have a lot of mothballed coal plants soon.
      - h0l0cube 2y ago
        You could be right, if there’s innovation in storage tech. I currently have my eyes on sodium ion, which doesn’t have the resource issues of lithium ion, and is already dirt cheap. Hasn’t got great gravimetric density, but perfect for grid storage
        xbmcuser 2y ago
        Although sodium is good, LFP batteries are already below $65-68/Kwh and do not have the same risk of thermal runaway that lithium-ion batteries do. These batteries are being rated for 6000+ cycles without more than 80-90% degradation (i.e. daily charge discharge for 20 years). So LCOE of battery storage systems like Tesla Megapack are now around $0.06c/Kwh, which is cheaper than the average electricity price in most of the world. The biggest problem the world faces to decarbonize now is finance rather than technology, as few can afford to pay 10-20 years of electricity usage upfront, apart from rich countries. I hope the battery storage prices keep the cost trajectory as smaller the payback period, the faster and larger the adoption will be.
        h0l0cube 2y ago
        Well aware of LFP. The device I’m using now was charged by it. The problem is that grid storage needs tremendous scale, and for that lithium battery chemistries are constrained by lithium extraction. Sodium is already abundantly available
        xbmcuser 2y ago
        I was bullish on sodium ion batteries last year but now I don't see them taking off at least for the next few years unless sodium ion tech is 40-50% cheaper today. The reason being no matter how much oil and gas companies keep harping about lithium shortage reality is lithium production is likely to stay ahead of demand for the next few years. And the incremental improvement in lithium battery tech and production each year keeps sodium ion tech from keeping any cost advantage.

megaman821 2y ago

Most coal plants in China will probably be used a peaker plants in the future. They don't make the best peaker plants, but China doesn't have much natural gas.

h0l0cube 2y ago
The linked article by Hannah Ritchie states the case for this. There's also this article about an Australian experiment to shut off and turn back on a coal plant within 5 hours: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-13/australian-coal-plant-in-extraordinary-survival-experiment/104461504 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-13/australian-coal-plant... Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41831861 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41831861
xbmcuser 2y ago
Battery storage is pricing out gas peaker plants everywhere so unlikely coal will take over peak usage in china
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  Coal has already taken over peak generation in China. They've only started to build battery plants, so coal will be covering peaks for anther decade at least.
  - tuna74 2y ago
    Grid battery peakers can be built really fast. China is going to have a lot of mothballed coal plants soon.
    - h0l0cube 2y ago
      You could be right, if there’s innovation in storage tech. I currently have my eyes on sodium ion, which doesn’t have the resource issues of lithium ion, and is already dirt cheap. Hasn’t got great gravimetric density, but perfect for grid storage
      - xbmcuser 2y ago
        Although sodium is good, LFP batteries are already below $65-68/Kwh and do not have the same risk of thermal runaway that lithium-ion batteries do. These batteries are being rated for 6000+ cycles without more than 80-90% degradation (i.e. daily charge discharge for 20 years). So LCOE of battery storage systems like Tesla Megapack are now around $0.06c/Kwh, which is cheaper than the average electricity price in most of the world. The biggest problem the world faces to decarbonize now is finance rather than technology, as few can afford to pay 10-20 years of electricity usage upfront, apart from rich countries. I hope the battery storage prices keep the cost trajectory as smaller the payback period, the faster and larger the adoption will be.
        h0l0cube 2y ago
        Well aware of LFP. The device I’m using now was charged by it. The problem is that grid storage needs tremendous scale, and for that lithium battery chemistries are constrained by lithium extraction. Sodium is already abundantly available
        xbmcuser 2y ago
        I was bullish on sodium ion batteries last year but now I don't see them taking off at least for the next few years unless sodium ion tech is 40-50% cheaper today. The reason being no matter how much oil and gas companies keep harping about lithium shortage reality is lithium production is likely to stay ahead of demand for the next few years. And the incremental improvement in lithium battery tech and production each year keeps sodium ion tech from keeping any cost advantage.