4 ms·

It's worth contextualizing that the decline of coal in the US has been fuelled (sorry) more than anything by the rapid expansion of hydraulic fracturing for sha

by scythe 2y ago

It's worth contextualizing that the decline of coal in the US has been fuelled (sorry) more than anything by the rapid expansion of hydraulic fracturing for shale gas extraction. The US is now the world's largest natural gas producer with 60% of that gas being produced by hydraulic fracturing. This isn't going to be easily accessible — or acceptable — everywhere around the world.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
Solar and batteries are getting so cheap so fast it won’t matter for the rest of the world. China installed a 3GW solar facility in 14 months, just turned up, second largest in the world [1] [2]. 14 months. And they are not slowing down. [1] https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/11/12/worlds-second-largest-solar-plant-goes-online-in-china/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/11/12/worlds-second-largest... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42124253 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42124253
- anonymousiam 2y ago
  Is there any data on the lifecycle of large-scale solar batteries? Are they any better than the small-scale ones? If they aren't, it would seem impractical to rely on them, because of the costs to replace/recycle them every few years. Just to be clear, I'm referring to the use of electrical batteries for the temporary storage of solar power, so that the power can be available when the sun is not. Non-electrical storage techniques (gravity, hydro) would seem better suited for long-term reliability.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Lithium batteries typically have a 10-15 year service life, depending on who you buy from (I am most familiar with Tesla's Megapack and Autobidder product in this regard; Tesla will warranty for up to 20 years [1]). CATL has a battery they warranty for 1M miles in EV applications [2], extrapolate to daily stationary storage cycles. Sodium ion is moving very fast, and is likely superior for this use case (both in regards to cost and service life) [3]. Scale up manufacturing, scale up deployment, scale up recycling, and you've got a circular supply chain system. At end of life, new (very likely better) batteries are installed and the old ones (in decades) are shipped back for recycling. In the US, this is Redwood Materials [4], founded by JB Straubel (former Tesla CTO). They have agreements to both recycle batteries with major automakers as well as supply feedstock for new battery components [5]. I'm unsure if this circular supply chain system exists in China yet, but I presume it is straightforward with their nation state resources to encourage along. Pumped hydro is great where you can build it and it is cost superior to batteries, but batteries can be shipped and installed anywhere a concrete pad is waiting for them, very rapidly. [1] https://www.tesla.com/megapack https://www.tesla.com/megapack ("Each Megapack unit ships fully assembled and ready to operate, allowing for quick installation timelines and reduced complexity. Systems require minimal maintenance and include up to a 20-year warranty.") [2] https://electrek.co/2024/09/16/catl-launches-new-ev-battery-lasts-nearly-1-million-miles/ https://electrek.co/2024/09/16/catl-launches-new-ev-battery-... ("CATL launches ultra-high-energy-density EV bus battery that lasts nearly 1 million miles") [3] https://electrek.co/2024/05/17/china-first-large-scale-sodium-ion-battery/ https://electrek.co/2024/05/17/china-first-large-scale-sodiu... ("China’s first large-scale sodium-ion battery charges to 90% in 12 minutes") [4] https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/ https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/ ("Redwood Materials: We’re building a circular supply chain to power a sustainable world") [5] https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/#partners https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/#partners ("Redwood Material: Partners")
    - anonymousiam 2y ago
      Thank you. As I understand it, the Tesla warranty was factored into the purchase price as a way to stabilize the TCO, and has little to do with the physical lifecycle of the lithium cells. Sodium looks very promising, but it's "not there yet."
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - epistasis 2y ago
        > As I understand it, the Tesla warranty was factored into the purchase price as a way to stabilize the TCO, and has little to do with the physical lifecycle of the lithium cells. Where does that understanding come from? Because Tesla's warranty is consistent with every other manufacturers warranty that I have seen, basically 4000-5000 cycles is standard for grid storage lithium ion.
        anonymousiam 2y ago
        The warranty doesn't guarantee that the batteries will not fail, it just compensates the owner when they do. Buyers may be hesitant to purchase an expensive system such as a Powerwall or a Cybertruck unless the system comes with a warranty. So Tesla can raise the sales price to cover the inevitable warranty claim, and the purchaser will be none the wiser.
        epistasis 2y ago
        It's clear how warranties work, what's not clear to me is why Tesla would be using them in a way different from any other use of them over the years, and why every single other manufacturer is also using them in some sort of different way.
    - pfdietz 2y ago
      > Pumped hydro is great where you can build it and it is cost superior to batteries Given the dramatic price decline of LFP cells in the past year, I'm not sure this is still the case.
  - bryanlarsen 2y ago
    The Australian batteries paid for themselves in 2 years. So they're worth it whether the batteries last 10 or 30 years.

by scythe 2y ago

toomuchtodo 2y ago

Solar and batteries are getting so cheap so fast it won’t matter for the rest of the world. China installed a 3GW solar facility in 14 months, just turned up, second largest in the world [1] [2]. 14 months. And they are not slowing down. [1] https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/11/12/worlds-second-largest-solar-plant-goes-online-in-china/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/11/12/worlds-second-largest... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42124253 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42124253

anonymousiam 2y ago
Is there any data on the lifecycle of large-scale solar batteries? Are they any better than the small-scale ones? If they aren't, it would seem impractical to rely on them, because of the costs to replace/recycle them every few years. Just to be clear, I'm referring to the use of electrical batteries for the temporary storage of solar power, so that the power can be available when the sun is not. Non-electrical storage techniques (gravity, hydro) would seem better suited for long-term reliability.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Lithium batteries typically have a 10-15 year service life, depending on who you buy from (I am most familiar with Tesla's Megapack and Autobidder product in this regard; Tesla will warranty for up to 20 years [1]). CATL has a battery they warranty for 1M miles in EV applications [2], extrapolate to daily stationary storage cycles. Sodium ion is moving very fast, and is likely superior for this use case (both in regards to cost and service life) [3]. Scale up manufacturing, scale up deployment, scale up recycling, and you've got a circular supply chain system. At end of life, new (very likely better) batteries are installed and the old ones (in decades) are shipped back for recycling. In the US, this is Redwood Materials [4], founded by JB Straubel (former Tesla CTO). They have agreements to both recycle batteries with major automakers as well as supply feedstock for new battery components [5]. I'm unsure if this circular supply chain system exists in China yet, but I presume it is straightforward with their nation state resources to encourage along. Pumped hydro is great where you can build it and it is cost superior to batteries, but batteries can be shipped and installed anywhere a concrete pad is waiting for them, very rapidly. [1] https://www.tesla.com/megapack https://www.tesla.com/megapack ("Each Megapack unit ships fully assembled and ready to operate, allowing for quick installation timelines and reduced complexity. Systems require minimal maintenance and include up to a 20-year warranty.") [2] https://electrek.co/2024/09/16/catl-launches-new-ev-battery-lasts-nearly-1-million-miles/ https://electrek.co/2024/09/16/catl-launches-new-ev-battery-... ("CATL launches ultra-high-energy-density EV bus battery that lasts nearly 1 million miles") [3] https://electrek.co/2024/05/17/china-first-large-scale-sodium-ion-battery/ https://electrek.co/2024/05/17/china-first-large-scale-sodiu... ("China’s first large-scale sodium-ion battery charges to 90% in 12 minutes") [4] https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/ https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/ ("Redwood Materials: We’re building a circular supply chain to power a sustainable world") [5] https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/#partners https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/#partners ("Redwood Material: Partners")
  - anonymousiam 2y ago
    Thank you. As I understand it, the Tesla warranty was factored into the purchase price as a way to stabilize the TCO, and has little to do with the physical lifecycle of the lithium cells. Sodium looks very promising, but it's "not there yet."
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - epistasis 2y ago
      > As I understand it, the Tesla warranty was factored into the purchase price as a way to stabilize the TCO, and has little to do with the physical lifecycle of the lithium cells. Where does that understanding come from? Because Tesla's warranty is consistent with every other manufacturers warranty that I have seen, basically 4000-5000 cycles is standard for grid storage lithium ion.
      - anonymousiam 2y ago
        The warranty doesn't guarantee that the batteries will not fail, it just compensates the owner when they do. Buyers may be hesitant to purchase an expensive system such as a Powerwall or a Cybertruck unless the system comes with a warranty. So Tesla can raise the sales price to cover the inevitable warranty claim, and the purchaser will be none the wiser.
        epistasis 2y ago
        It's clear how warranties work, what's not clear to me is why Tesla would be using them in a way different from any other use of them over the years, and why every single other manufacturer is also using them in some sort of different way.
  - pfdietz 2y ago
    > Pumped hydro is great where you can build it and it is cost superior to batteries Given the dramatic price decline of LFP cells in the past year, I'm not sure this is still the case.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago
  The Australian batteries paid for themselves in 2 years. So they're worth it whether the batteries last 10 or 30 years.