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China’s growing coal capacity could be seen as a mix of welfare and bureaucratic waste. Each prefecture is incentivized to build its own redundancy, and in a fl
by h0l0cube 2y ago
China’s growing coal capacity could be seen as a mix of welfare and bureaucratic waste. Each prefecture is incentivized to build its own redundancy, and in a flagging economy, government spending is up to keep the economy going. The resulting overcapacity could be used for ‘peaking’ to offset intermittency in renewable power, something that’s being experimented with currently. And in the shorter term, coal can have less warming effect than gas, but I’m not sure this would be true of China’s coal plants in particular
- defrost 2y agoChina’s growing coal consumption is part of Cina's growing energy demands, their middle class is growing and exceeds the entire popultion of the USA in size. While that middle class has a per capita energy and consumption figure that is lower than the USA per capita figures it is the case that the US has set an aspiration life style expectation that sees demand grow. China's coal use has become increasingly more efficient; much is made of additional new modern coal power houses, little mention is made of the larger numbers of older inefficient far dirtier coal plants have been closed down and are still being closed down. Nuclear and renewables are part of overall energy production in China to a far greater proportion and absolute number than in the US. The scale of China's energy production is substantial and not easily characterised.
- philipkglass 2y agoNuclear and renewables are part of overall energy production in China to a far greater proportion and absolute number than in the US. China has a smaller nuclear fleet capacity than the US and meets a much smaller percentage of its electricity needs with nuclear power: https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryDetails.aspx?current=CN https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryDetails.... https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryDetails.aspx?current=US https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryDetails.... As of 2023 US got 18.55% of electricity from nuclear power (775 terawatt hours) while China got 4.86% (433 TWh). As of 2023 China does get a larger share from renewables: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China#Production_and_capacity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China#Pr... https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 It's 29.1% renewables in China (2,756 TWh) vs. 21.4% (894 TWh) in the United States. Grouping nuclear and renewables together as low-emissions sources, the US gets 47.65% of its electricity from low-emissions sources and China gets 33.96% from low-emissions sources. China is building nuclear and renewable sources faster than the US, so will narrow the gap over the rest of the decade, but it's also growing its total electricity consumption faster.
- defrost 2y agoFair correction, I was focused more on China's renewable sector than it's nuclear (which China plans to increase to 15% of their projected 2050 electricity production) and on absolute size. I mostly check my figures before comments, this is what I deserve for going off the cuff :-) ( thanks )
- philipkglass 2y agoI made a mistake too when I was adding and copy-pasting numbers. US is at 39.55% low-emissions electricity. So I got the ranking right but originally overstated the size of the gap.
- xbmcuser 2y agoChina in 2024 is on track to install more solar and wind capacity than it's consumption growth add the fact that of lcoe of solar + battery storage is now cheaper than what retail electricity is selling for in China. So move off coal electricity for China might be a lot faster than people are predicting.
- h0l0cube 2y agoChina's coal plants are running at steadily reduced capacity (while their renewables capacity is growing exponentially). > In the first decade of the 2000s, plants were running around 70% of the time. They’re now running around 50%. https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/i/141628065/chinas-coal-plants-are-running-less-often https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/i/141628065/chinas-c...
- megaman821 2y agoMost coal plants in China will probably be used a peaker plants in the future. They don't make the best peaker plants, but China doesn't have much natural gas.
- h0l0cube 2y agoThe linked article by Hannah Ritchie states the case for this. There's also this article about an Australian experiment to shut off and turn back on a coal plant within 5 hours: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-13/australian-coal-plant-in-extraordinary-survival-experiment/104461504 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-13/australian-coal-plant... Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41831861 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41831861
- xbmcuser 2y agoBattery storage is pricing out gas peaker plants everywhere so unlikely coal will take over peak usage in china
- bryanlarsen 2y agoCoal has already taken over peak generation in China. They've only started to build battery plants, so coal will be covering peaks for anther decade at least.
- tuna74 2y agoGrid battery peakers can be built really fast. China is going to have a lot of mothballed coal plants soon.
- tim333 2y agoI think there may be a military aspect to it. So they can crack on if they get blockaded for invading Taiwan.