3 ms·

Are you talking about groups like the Amish and Orthodox Jews?

by _zagj 2y ago

dyauspitr 2y ago
Yes and probably Latinos too.
anon291 2y ago
No not really. While they have high fertility, they also have cultural practices that limit the spread of their viewpoints (requirements to live in particular geographies, etc). I would more be talking about groups like traditional Catholics which have no such prohibitions, and frequently find themselves in very high-ranking fields. For example, I'd point to many Supreme Court Justices, several entrepreneurs, several media figures, etc. It's not just traditional Catholics [1], there are many groups with persistently high fertility rates. It's not just Catholics. Conservative protestants also have much higher fertility. In particular, red states have higher fertility than blue states, and if you drill down deeper, it's simply due to these states having more of these groups than blue states, not any particular policy. The data are pretty unequivocal that government policy has basically no influence on people's decisions to have children. Anyway, the higher fertility combined with the ability of full civic / economic participation means these groups will eventually come to dominate. There is simply no other way. We can talk about immigration until the cows come home, but overall, the global birth rate is sub replacement, so while any one country can migrate more people to solve its problem, this just punts the political football to another country which will invariably become more conservative. To conclude, I can name several examples of 'conservative' groups with significantly higher birth rates, but I can't name a single liberal one. This is simply a cultural thing, but it doesn't matter for the economy. Regardless of who has kids, the kids pay the taxes necessary to sustain the welfare state. However, as I pointed out, it'll likely lead to political differences that many here won't like. As an example, I'd point to everyone's surprise that Gen Z is more conservative. I've been saying this for years now, because I first noticed the differential in fertility rates as a child in the 90s. People thought I was a chicken little, but we're seeing the results. [1] Note, I'm calling out traditional Catholics here. The overall fertility rate for Catholics is on par with an average American. However, simply by breeding, there's already a huge faction within the Catholic church writ large. The progressives, with fewer kids, are dying out to be replaced by younger, more zealous figures. I think this will probably be the next step for the country as a whole as well [2] EDIT: someone mentioned mormons... that's another good point. A small group of a few dozens of families moving west and now dominate one state and are important minorities in several others.
- klenwell 2y ago
  > I've been saying this for years now, because I first noticed the differential in fertility rates as a child in the 90s. You and The Onion both: https://theonion.com/study-uneducated-outbreeding-intelligentsia-2-to-1-1819564327/ https://theonion.com/study-uneducated-outbreeding-intelligen...
  - anon291 2y ago
    I would hardly call people like Amy Barrett, Kavanaugh, Alito, etc as uneducated, but believe what you want. It's true that the lower your income, the more kids you'll have. However, again, there are several subgroups where that's not really true.
- pfisch 2y ago
  You could definitely convince people to have more children by offering significant tax/money incentives.(2k/month per child would certainly be a policy that had a very significant effect on fertility.)
  - anon291 2y ago
    If that were the case Europe and Canada would be overflowing with children.
    - pfisch 2y ago
      No one is offering incentives of the magnitude I'm talking about. If the incentives become big enough they will work. "Some countries offer child benefits, such as the UK, where the first child receives £21.80 per week and each additional child receives £14.45 per week." What a joke. Start paying mothers 60k/year for the first 3-4 years like it is a job and suddenly we'll have more babies then we know what to do with. Scale it by household income like social security.
- _DeadFred_ 2y ago
  A huge part of California's population is non-conservative children moving away from conservative areas. Sounds like more of the same to me.
variadix 2y ago
Mormons, Catholics, etc. Mostly religious groups that value having children

Are you talking about groups like the Amish and Orthodox Jews?

by _zagj 2y ago

Are you talking about groups like the Amish and Orthodox Jews?

dyauspitr 2y ago

Yes and probably Latinos too.

anon291 2y ago

No not really. While they have high fertility, they also have cultural practices that limit the spread of their viewpoints (requirements to live in particular geographies, etc). I would more be talking about groups like traditional Catholics which have no such prohibitions, and frequently find themselves in very high-ranking fields. For example, I'd point to many Supreme Court Justices, several entrepreneurs, several media figures, etc. It's not just traditional Catholics [1], there are many groups with persistently high fertility rates. It's not just Catholics. Conservative protestants also have much higher fertility. In particular, red states have higher fertility than blue states, and if you drill down deeper, it's simply due to these states having more of these groups than blue states, not any particular policy. The data are pretty unequivocal that government policy has basically no influence on people's decisions to have children. Anyway, the higher fertility combined with the ability of full civic / economic participation means these groups will eventually come to dominate. There is simply no other way. We can talk about immigration until the cows come home, but overall, the global birth rate is sub replacement, so while any one country can migrate more people to solve its problem, this just punts the political football to another country which will invariably become more conservative. To conclude, I can name several examples of 'conservative' groups with significantly higher birth rates, but I can't name a single liberal one. This is simply a cultural thing, but it doesn't matter for the economy. Regardless of who has kids, the kids pay the taxes necessary to sustain the welfare state. However, as I pointed out, it'll likely lead to political differences that many here won't like. As an example, I'd point to everyone's surprise that Gen Z is more conservative. I've been saying this for years now, because I first noticed the differential in fertility rates as a child in the 90s. People thought I was a chicken little, but we're seeing the results. [1] Note, I'm calling out traditional Catholics here. The overall fertility rate for Catholics is on par with an average American. However, simply by breeding, there's already a huge faction within the Catholic church writ large. The progressives, with fewer kids, are dying out to be replaced by younger, more zealous figures. I think this will probably be the next step for the country as a whole as well [2] EDIT: someone mentioned mormons... that's another good point. A small group of a few dozens of families moving west and now dominate one state and are important minorities in several others.

klenwell 2y ago
> I've been saying this for years now, because I first noticed the differential in fertility rates as a child in the 90s. You and The Onion both: https://theonion.com/study-uneducated-outbreeding-intelligentsia-2-to-1-1819564327/ https://theonion.com/study-uneducated-outbreeding-intelligen...
- anon291 2y ago
  I would hardly call people like Amy Barrett, Kavanaugh, Alito, etc as uneducated, but believe what you want. It's true that the lower your income, the more kids you'll have. However, again, there are several subgroups where that's not really true.
pfisch 2y ago
You could definitely convince people to have more children by offering significant tax/money incentives.(2k/month per child would certainly be a policy that had a very significant effect on fertility.)
- anon291 2y ago
  If that were the case Europe and Canada would be overflowing with children.
  - pfisch 2y ago
    No one is offering incentives of the magnitude I'm talking about. If the incentives become big enough they will work. "Some countries offer child benefits, such as the UK, where the first child receives £21.80 per week and each additional child receives £14.45 per week." What a joke. Start paying mothers 60k/year for the first 3-4 years like it is a job and suddenly we'll have more babies then we know what to do with. Scale it by household income like social security.
_DeadFred_ 2y ago
A huge part of California's population is non-conservative children moving away from conservative areas. Sounds like more of the same to me.

variadix 2y ago

Mormons, Catholics, etc. Mostly religious groups that value having children