5 ms·

People with incomes under 50k/year overwhelmingly voted for the winner in the recent election, perhaps they’ll reconsider when chicken is $15/lb and strawberrie

People with incomes under 50k/year overwhelmingly voted for the winner in the recent election, perhaps they’ll reconsider when chicken is $15/lb and strawberries are $10/pint, roof replacement costs doubling, etc. They likely do not understand the impact that illegal immigrant labor has on food affordability, but they might find that out now. Hopefully congress will increase SNAP benefits if food prices start spiraling upwards.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
TeaBrain 2y ago
People making 30k to 100k on average voted for the winner. People making less than 30k or more than 100k did not.
- quickthrowman 2y ago
  Thanks for the clarification
AnimalMuppet 2y ago
Would it be a net win for them, or a net loss? Prices will go up, but shouldn't wages go up as well (because there are fewer people to work, and we still want the work to get done, so supply and demand dictates a higher price for work)?
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  There is robust evidence Americans are not going to do the jobs migrants are doing, and businesses will not be willing to pay a living wage for those remaining authorized to work in the US. Prices will go up. Supply and demand. Farm fields, dairy farms, construction, slaughterhouses, seasonal work, hospitality, etc [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]. So, assume you're going to deport the people who do these jobs (~8M unauthorized people are in the US labor force, total unauthorized is ~11M-15M). Also consider that Boomer retirement is ramping, and is roughly 11,200 per day or 4.1M per year [8]. Unemployment is still historically low. Who is going to do this work? [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2020/06/ft_2020.06.10_unauthorized_02.png https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2020... ("Unauthorized immigrants account for nearly a tenth of all US workers in food industries") [2] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/06/10/a-majority-of-americans-say-immigrants-mostly-fill-jobs-u-s-citizens-do-not-want/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/06/10/a-majorit... ("A majority of Americans say immigrants mostly fill jobs U.S. citizens do not want") [3] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/how-migrant-workers-have-contributed-to-strong-u-s-job-growth https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/how-migrant-workers-hav... ("How migrant workers have contributed to strong U.S. job growth") [4] https://www.npr.org/2024/04/26/1242236604/florida-economy-immigration-businesses-workers-undocumented https://www.npr.org/2024/04/26/1242236604/florida-economy-im... ("A year later, Florida businesses say the state's immigration law dealt a huge blow") [5] https://civicmedia.us/news/2024/11/14/wisconsin-farmer-calls-election-results-a-disaster-for-agriculture https://civicmedia.us/news/2024/11/14/wisconsin-farmer-calls... (“The election outcome is an unmitigated disaster for the state’s agriculture-related businesses,” Breitenmoser explains. “Trump criticized immigration policies that overall target essential farm workers, many of whom come from outside the U.S. Our dairy and meat industries rely heavily on these workers and sending them home or restricting immigration threatens to collapse Wisconsin’s agricultural economy.”) [6] https://eyeonhousing.org/2024/03/states-and-construction-trades-most-reliant-on-immigrant-workers-2022/ https://eyeonhousing.org/2024/03/states-and-construction-tra... ("States and Construction Trades Most Reliant on Immigrant Workers, 2022") [7] https://limos.engin.umich.edu/deitabase/2024/05/28/undocumented-construction-workers-us/ https://limos.engin.umich.edu/deitabase/2024/05/28/undocumen... ("The perils of Undocumented Construction Workers in the United States") [8] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/08/baby-boomers-hit-peak-65-in-2024-why-retirement-age-is-in-question.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/08/baby-boomers-hit-peak-65-in-... ("As baby boomers hit ‘peak 65’ this year, what the retirement age should be is up for debate")
  - tdeck 2y ago
    In theory those jobs could be made more attractive to workers: safer, better paying less arduous, better benefits. Any job can be made more appealing with the right motivation. Of course, you only have to look at the coalition that supports the Republican party to know that's not going to happen. Instead the most likely outcome is that the increased threat of deportation will be used to keep undocumented workers in line and make them accept greater on-the-job hazards, wage theft, and abuse from management. It's already common in some of the worst industries (e.g. poultry processing) to call ICE when workers try to organize a union.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      My wild speculation is immigrants will likely migrate to states that have made public commitments to protect them, to the detriment of states losing them (exacerbating their labor shortages).
- rectang 2y ago
  Even if it is a net win, voters won't perceive it as one, judging by the historical response to inflation against incumbent governments worldwide and through the decades.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

TeaBrain 2y ago

People making 30k to 100k on average voted for the winner. People making less than 30k or more than 100k did not.

quickthrowman 2y ago
Thanks for the clarification

AnimalMuppet 2y ago

Would it be a net win for them, or a net loss? Prices will go up, but shouldn't wages go up as well (because there are fewer people to work, and we still want the work to get done, so supply and demand dictates a higher price for work)?

toomuchtodo 2y ago
There is robust evidence Americans are not going to do the jobs migrants are doing, and businesses will not be willing to pay a living wage for those remaining authorized to work in the US. Prices will go up. Supply and demand. Farm fields, dairy farms, construction, slaughterhouses, seasonal work, hospitality, etc [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]. So, assume you're going to deport the people who do these jobs (~8M unauthorized people are in the US labor force, total unauthorized is ~11M-15M). Also consider that Boomer retirement is ramping, and is roughly 11,200 per day or 4.1M per year [8]. Unemployment is still historically low. Who is going to do this work? [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2020/06/ft_2020.06.10_unauthorized_02.png https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2020... ("Unauthorized immigrants account for nearly a tenth of all US workers in food industries") [2] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/06/10/a-majority-of-americans-say-immigrants-mostly-fill-jobs-u-s-citizens-do-not-want/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/06/10/a-majorit... ("A majority of Americans say immigrants mostly fill jobs U.S. citizens do not want") [3] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/how-migrant-workers-have-contributed-to-strong-u-s-job-growth https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/how-migrant-workers-hav... ("How migrant workers have contributed to strong U.S. job growth") [4] https://www.npr.org/2024/04/26/1242236604/florida-economy-immigration-businesses-workers-undocumented https://www.npr.org/2024/04/26/1242236604/florida-economy-im... ("A year later, Florida businesses say the state's immigration law dealt a huge blow") [5] https://civicmedia.us/news/2024/11/14/wisconsin-farmer-calls-election-results-a-disaster-for-agriculture https://civicmedia.us/news/2024/11/14/wisconsin-farmer-calls... (“The election outcome is an unmitigated disaster for the state’s agriculture-related businesses,” Breitenmoser explains. “Trump criticized immigration policies that overall target essential farm workers, many of whom come from outside the U.S. Our dairy and meat industries rely heavily on these workers and sending them home or restricting immigration threatens to collapse Wisconsin’s agricultural economy.”) [6] https://eyeonhousing.org/2024/03/states-and-construction-trades-most-reliant-on-immigrant-workers-2022/ https://eyeonhousing.org/2024/03/states-and-construction-tra... ("States and Construction Trades Most Reliant on Immigrant Workers, 2022") [7] https://limos.engin.umich.edu/deitabase/2024/05/28/undocumented-construction-workers-us/ https://limos.engin.umich.edu/deitabase/2024/05/28/undocumen... ("The perils of Undocumented Construction Workers in the United States") [8] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/08/baby-boomers-hit-peak-65-in-2024-why-retirement-age-is-in-question.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/08/baby-boomers-hit-peak-65-in-... ("As baby boomers hit ‘peak 65’ this year, what the retirement age should be is up for debate")
- tdeck 2y ago
  In theory those jobs could be made more attractive to workers: safer, better paying less arduous, better benefits. Any job can be made more appealing with the right motivation. Of course, you only have to look at the coalition that supports the Republican party to know that's not going to happen. Instead the most likely outcome is that the increased threat of deportation will be used to keep undocumented workers in line and make them accept greater on-the-job hazards, wage theft, and abuse from management. It's already common in some of the worst industries (e.g. poultry processing) to call ICE when workers try to organize a union.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    My wild speculation is immigrants will likely migrate to states that have made public commitments to protect them, to the detriment of states losing them (exacerbating their labor shortages).
rectang 2y ago
Even if it is a net win, voters won't perceive it as one, judging by the historical response to inflation against incumbent governments worldwide and through the decades.