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> the prediction markets PredictIt was predicting the opposite outcome up to the day of the election.
by anon373839 2y ago
> the prediction markets
PredictIt was predicting the opposite outcome up to the day of the election.
- lazyeye 2y agoNot true. PredictIt was predicting Trump for 3 weeks prior up until 27th where it took a dive. This is likely due to over-reacting to the Puerto Rican island garbage joke at MSG on the 27th. Not saying prediction markets will be perfectly accurate but they will certainly be better than pollsters. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-t...
- anon373839 2y agoI didn’t say it always predicted Harris the winner. I said that it was predicting her to win just before the election. She was also leading during the entire period between August 17-October 10, and likely somewhat earlier (I can only see the 90-day history on my phone). The point here is that there is no “the prediction markets” one can speak of as a cohesive unit.
- alecst 2y agoI don’t see how someone at ~50/100 odds is predicted to win. That’s just a toss up with a slight statistical edge. Goes for both candidates.