2 ms·

Why is grey goo implied? Send one probe per solar system. If two probes meet each other, have them pick a random number to decide who flies off to find another

by ericb 2y ago

Why is grey goo implied? Send one probe per solar system. If two probes meet each other, have them pick a random number to decide who flies off to find another solar system or into the sun. If there were probes here, are you sure you'd see it? Why do silly reports being mixed in change the liklihood? If they don't, couldn't a single report that was real be in the mix? Ok, maybe a few? So, saying "*some* don't resemble self-replicating probes" doesn't really invalidate anything? > a valid counterargument is pointing out that the craft do not resemble self-replicating probes either in their construction or behavior It seems like this is difficult to know what it would present as?

krapp 2y ago
> Send one probe per solar system. If two probes meet each other, have them pick a random number to decide who flies off to find another solar system or into the sun. I don't think there would be enough probes for it to be unusual that none have landed here, given the size of interstellar space. I may be wrong, but if I am, we're back to the Fermi Paradox and it's essentially the same problem. If they should be here, they should be everywhere. >So, saying "some don't resemble self-replicating probes" doesn't really invalidate anything? I'm saying none of them do. >It seems like this is difficult to know what it would present as? To reiterate, being a probe, it wouldn't likely have pilots or crews, and the current UAP narrative mentions "NHI" (non-human intelligences) and "NHB" (non-human biologics), and the broader UFO narrative of course has plenty of aliens. One could, I suppose, suggest that the probes for whatever reason also replicate crews within themselves, but that seems to be stretching the premise beyond absurdity to me. At some point one has to assume there are limits to the capabilities of this model, otherwise it's essentially magic. Also to reiterate, the model of self-replicating probes assumes slower than light travel. If you have faster than light travel (assuming that's possible) you don't need self-replicating probes. Both the current UAP narrative and the broader UFO narrative involve craft traveling faster than light, across dimensions, through wormholes, etc. And as far as I'm aware there isn't any report of a UAP or UFO replicating itself as one would expect. So it isn't necessary to know what, specifically, self-replicating probes would present as when none of the details reported support the presence of self-replicating probes over any other possibility.

by ericb 2y ago

krapp 2y ago

> Send one probe per solar system. If two probes meet each other, have them pick a random number to decide who flies off to find another solar system or into the sun. I don't think there would be enough probes for it to be unusual that none have landed here, given the size of interstellar space. I may be wrong, but if I am, we're back to the Fermi Paradox and it's essentially the same problem. If they should be here, they should be everywhere. >So, saying "some don't resemble self-replicating probes" doesn't really invalidate anything? I'm saying none of them do. >It seems like this is difficult to know what it would present as? To reiterate, being a probe, it wouldn't likely have pilots or crews, and the current UAP narrative mentions "NHI" (non-human intelligences) and "NHB" (non-human biologics), and the broader UFO narrative of course has plenty of aliens. One could, I suppose, suggest that the probes for whatever reason also replicate crews within themselves, but that seems to be stretching the premise beyond absurdity to me. At some point one has to assume there are limits to the capabilities of this model, otherwise it's essentially magic. Also to reiterate, the model of self-replicating probes assumes slower than light travel. If you have faster than light travel (assuming that's possible) you don't need self-replicating probes. Both the current UAP narrative and the broader UFO narrative involve craft traveling faster than light, across dimensions, through wormholes, etc. And as far as I'm aware there isn't any report of a UAP or UFO replicating itself as one would expect. So it isn't necessary to know what, specifically, self-replicating probes would present as when none of the details reported support the presence of self-replicating probes over any other possibility.